人口老龄化“倒逼”产业结构升级的动态效应——基于中国30个省级制造业面板数据的空间计量分析

发布时间：2018-11-21 07:51

【摘要】：人口是产业发展的基础和依据,人口老龄化从生产和消费两个方面对产业结构升级产生制约和引导作用。生产上,人口老龄化会带来刘易斯拐点效应、人力资本累积效应和劳动力适应性效应;消费上,人口老龄化会带来消费需求的规模效应、结构效应和挤出效应,从而对产业结构升级产生动态影响。基于2003-2014年中国30个省、市、自治区的制造业面板数据,运用空间计量SEM模型对以要素密集型划分和以技术密集型划分的制造业结构进行回归分析,结果显示:人口老龄化"倒逼"企业以资本或技术替代劳动,促进了制造业结构升级;同时,人口老龄化伴随着人均受教育年限的增加,人力资本积累水平的上升也成为推动制造业结构升级的重要因素。建议根据人口年龄结构变化趋势和要禀赋动态变化特点,利用好它们对产业结构升级的正效应和负效应,推动产业从结构内部和跨区域转移上做实升级新旧动能转换。
[Abstract]:Population is the foundation and basis of industrial development. The aging of population restricts and guides the upgrading of industrial structure from two aspects: production and consumption. In production, population aging will bring Lewis inflection point effect, human capital accumulation effect and labor force adaptability effect; On consumption, aging of population will bring scale effect, structure effect and extrusion effect of consumption demand, which will have dynamic influence on upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the panel data of manufacturing industry in 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China from 2003 to 2014, a regression analysis of the manufacturing structure with factor intensive classification and technology-intensive classification was carried out by using spatial SEM model. The results show that the aging population forces enterprises to replace labor with capital or technology, which promotes the upgrading of manufacturing structure; At the same time, the aging of the population is accompanied by the increase of the average number of years of education, and the increase of the level of human capital accumulation has become an important factor to promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure. It is suggested that according to the changing trend of population age structure and the characteristics of dynamic change of endowment, we should make good use of their positive and negative effects on the upgrading of industrial structure, so as to promote the transformation of new and old kinetic energy from the internal structure and trans-regional transfer of industries.
【作者单位】：南京审计大学公共经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学基金项目“中国国民福祉的地区差距及其协调机制研究”(项目编号:12YJA790128,项目负责人:万树) 江苏省高校人文社会科学研究项目“欠发达地区农民合作社扶贫机制创新研究”(项目编号:2017ZDIXM103,项目负责人:张笑寒) 江苏省“333”工程项目“国家审计提升国家治理能力的机理和路径研究”(项目编号:BRA2015412,项目负责人:楚永生)
【分类号】：C924.24;F121.3;F424

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