全面二孩政策对人力资源的影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-21 18:40

【摘要】：自1982年起,计划生育政策就被确定为我国人口发展政策方面的基本国策被长期稳定下来,并长期作为学界研究的焦点与重点。许多学科领域的学者都关注其发展与变化。本文以2016年计划生育政策的全面变革作为研究视角,运用问卷及定性与定量的方式进行研究,借用图表及数据,将计划生育政策与人力资源管理学科相结合起来,通过人口普查数据观察人口变化的规律,研究当下生育新政改革产生的社会效果,并基于全面二孩政策对人力资源产生的影响进行一些理论性预测分析。文章首先进行文献综述。其次,厘清全面二孩政策、人力资源及其可持续性、人口的红利、过剩、负债及其再生产等相关概念,把研究主题与渐进政策分析模型、人力资本理论、马斯洛需求层次理论、适度人口和人口均衡理论紧密地结合起来;在劳动力供求矛盾突出,少子化、人口老龄化、男女出生比例失衡为主的人口结构失衡问题凸显,单独二孩政策遇冷、低生育率难以回升,经济下行的压力,养老金空账危机,独生子女问题多、失独问题严峻,人口形势与人口安全问题突出等系列二孩政策出台的背景下,分析全面二孩给人力资源带来的有利影响:缓解人力资源结构失衡问题、优化人力资源的素质结构与代际结构,减少失独家庭的出现、增强未来家庭养老功能、缓解子代赡养老人的压力,促进人力资源的积累、存量保全、充分利用和可持续发展。再次,重点以全面二孩政策的执行效果为研究对象,针对中国人力资源未来会出现负增长的情况,结合中国的特殊国情,分析当前我国全面二孩政策这一生育新政产生的消极影响:加大家庭人力资源的投入成本,加剧人对资源环境的竞争,未来就业问题会趋于严重、引发人力资源相对过剩,未来过剩的人力资源会对社会保障体系造成压力。最后针对消极影响,思考完善二孩政策的对策:完善全面二孩的扶持政策、观念引导与相关法律法规,加强基础设施建设、合理分配公共资源,采取切实有效的政策管理、加强社会保障制度建设,发展经济、扩大就业、抑制人力资源过剩。综上,本文的研究内容:从研究全面二孩政策出台的原因、带来的社会压力、新政推行的利弊等方面切入,深入探讨怎样从社会保障、公共政策、公共服务、发展经济等方面规避新政给人力资源的可持续性带来的损伤及不利影响,并借由图表数据构建分析,重点探讨全面二孩政策对人力资源产生的影响,为解决全面二孩可能会带来的社会问题及完善全面二孩政策的保障机制问题提供新思路。
[Abstract]:Since 1982, the family planning policy has been established as the basic national policy of population development policy in China for a long time, and has been the focus and focus of academic research for a long time. Scholars in many disciplines are concerned about its development and change. From the perspective of the overall reform of family planning policy in 2016, this paper uses questionnaires and qualitative and quantitative methods to study, and combines family planning policy with human resources management by using charts and data. Through the census data to observe the law of population change, this paper studies the social effect of the reform of the New Policy on Fertility, and makes some theoretical prediction and analysis based on the influence of the comprehensive two-child policy on human resources. The article first carries on the literature review. Secondly, it clarifies the related concepts such as comprehensive two-child policy, human resources and its sustainability, population dividend, surplus, debt and reproduction, and puts forward the research topic and progressive policy analysis model, human capital theory, Maslow's hierarchy of demand theory, etc. The theory of moderate population and population balance is closely combined; The imbalance in the population structure, in which the contradiction between the supply and demand of the labor force is prominent, the minority children become more numerous, the population is aging, and the ratio of boys to girls is imbalance, the policy of single two-child is not as expected, the low fertility rate is difficult to recover, the downward pressure of the economy, the crisis of empty pension accounts, Under the background of the series of two-child policies, such as the multiple problems of one-child, the severe problem of losing independence and the prominent problems of population situation and population security, this paper analyzes the beneficial effect of comprehensive second-child on human resources: alleviating the imbalance of human resource structure. We should optimize the quality structure and intergenerational structure of human resources, reduce the appearance of families without independence, strengthen the function of future families to provide for the aged, relieve the pressure on children to support the elderly, and promote the accumulation, preservation, utilization and sustainable development of human resources. Thirdly, focusing on the implementation effect of the comprehensive two-child policy, aiming at the negative growth of China's human resources in the future, and combining with China's special national conditions, This paper analyzes the negative effects of the new policy of comprehensive two-child policy in China: increasing the input cost of family human resources, intensifying the competition of human resources and environment, the employment problem will become serious in the future, which will lead to the relative surplus of human resources. In the future, excess human resources will put pressure on the social security system. Finally, in view of the negative influence, the author thinks about the countermeasures to perfect the two-child policy: perfect the supporting policy of the two-child, guide the idea and related laws and regulations, strengthen the infrastructure construction, allocate the public resources rationally, and adopt the effective policy management. Strengthen the construction of social security system, develop the economy, expand employment and curb the surplus of human resources. In summary, the content of this paper: from the study of the reasons for the introduction of the comprehensive two-child policy, the social pressure brought about, the advantages and disadvantages of the implementation of the New deal, and so on, the in-depth discussion from the social security, public policy, public services, The development of economy and other aspects avoid the damage and adverse impact of the New deal on the sustainability of human resources, and through the analysis of chart data, the paper focuses on the impact of the comprehensive two-child policy on human resources. It provides a new idea for solving the social problems and perfecting the guarantee mechanism of the policy of comprehensive second child.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.21;F249.2

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