基于县域尺度的中国人口老龄化空间格局变化

发布时间：2018-11-23 07:50

【摘要】：2000年以来,中国人口的老龄化程度日益加重,已经成为中国社会经济发展必须面对重大议题。由于中国地域广袤,各地区自然条件和社会经济条件差异较大,人口基数和老龄化程度也不尽相同,致使人口老化的速度并不同步,存在显著的空间非均衡现象。纵观传统研究,大多基于省域层面,由于空间尺度较大,模糊和掩盖了省内人口老龄化空间分布的非均质性,很难清晰地刻画和展现中国人口老龄化的空间细部特征与变化样态。因此论文选择县域空间尺度,采用2000年和2010年人口“普查”分县数据,综合运用标准差椭圆、变异系数、探索性空间数据分析等方法,清晰地刻画了中国2283个县级行政单元上人口老龄化的空间格局及其变化特征,应用多元线性回归方法,剖析了人口老龄化变化的影响因素,以期为中国实施差异化的人口政策提供预警和决策导向。研究结果表明:(1)从空间格局及其变化来看:县域尺度上,中国人口老龄化存在显著的地区差异,“胡焕庸线”是显著的分界线;人口老龄化的空间分布模式呈现出多样化的特点:胡焕庸线西北半壁以均质化、轴带特征为主,而胡焕庸线东北半壁呈现出中心—外围,沿海—内陆等分布特征;省际边界对人口老龄化分布存在一定影响;各地区老龄化存在显著的空间关联,其空间关联类型变化显著,具体表现为高—高区域在沿海出现破碎化特征,在内陆地区呈现连绵化特征,高—低区域变化并不明显,低—高区域有所增加,低—低区域退缩态势显著;十年间人口老龄化的总体空间格局较为稳定。(2)从老龄化水平空间分布变化来看:2000-2010年间,人口老龄化水平的均值从6.7%增加为8.7%;10年间,步入老龄化阶段的县域明显增多,类型变化明显;老龄化的内迁态势显著。(3)人口老龄化增速表现出显著的空间差异。快速、较快增长区主要分布于兰新铁路沿线、东北地区、成渝地区及贵州部分区域;较慢增长区和慢速增长区主要分布在南疆、西藏、青海南部、江西、华北平原、以及东部沿海区域。(4)影响人口老龄化时空格局变化的首要因素是人口年龄结构的自然更替,而人口的流动、迁移、城市化等外缘性因素为辅助性作用。进一步研究表明:典型区域社会经济因素与人口老龄化变化相对脱钩,而人口流动已成为重塑区域人口老龄化格局不容忽视的因子。
[Abstract]:Since 2000, the aging of China's population has become more and more serious, which has become an important issue in China's social and economic development. Due to the vast area of China, there are great differences in natural and social economic conditions, the population base and the degree of aging are different, which results in the population aging speed is not synchronized, and there is a significant spatial imbalance phenomenon. Throughout the traditional research, mostly based on the provincial level, because of the large spatial scale, fuzzy and cover up the heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of the aging population in the province. It is difficult to clearly depict and show the spatial details and changing patterns of China's aging population. Therefore, the paper chooses the county spatial scale, adopts the 2000 and 2010 population census data, synthetically uses the standard deviation ellipse, the coefficient of variation, the exploratory spatial data analysis and so on. This paper clearly describes the spatial pattern and changing characteristics of population aging in 2283 administrative units at county level in China, and analyzes the influencing factors of the change of population aging by using the method of multiple linear regression. In order to implement differentiated population policy in China to provide early warning and decision-making guidance. The results show that: (1) from the perspective of spatial pattern and its changes, there are significant regional differences in population aging in China on the county scale, and Hu Huanyong line is a significant dividing line; The spatial distribution pattern of population aging is diversified: the northwestern half wall of Hu Huanyong line is homogenized and the axial zone is the main feature, while the northeast half wall of Hu Huanyong line has the characteristics of center and periphery, coast and interior. The provincial boundaries have a certain influence on the distribution of population aging. There is a significant spatial correlation between aging and aging in various regions, and the spatial correlation types change significantly, which are characterized by fragmentation in the coastal areas of high and high regions, continuous in inland areas, but not obvious changes in high to low regions. The low-high region increased and the low-low region retreated significantly. The overall spatial pattern of population aging is relatively stable in the past ten years. (2) from the perspective of spatial distribution of aging level, the average of population aging level increased from 6.7% to 8.7% from 2000 to 2010; In the past 10 years, the number of counties has increased and the types of counties have changed obviously. (3) the growth rate of population aging shows significant spatial difference. The rapid and rapid growth areas are mainly distributed along the Lanxin Railway, Northeast China, Chengdu-Chongqing area and parts of Guizhou Province. Slow growth areas and slow growth areas are mainly distributed in southern Xinjiang, Tibet, southern Qinghai, Jiangxi, North China Plain, And the eastern coastal areas. (4) the primary factor influencing the spatiotemporal pattern of population aging is the natural replacement of population age structure, and the external factors such as population mobility, migration, urbanization and other external factors are complementary. The further research shows that the typical regional social and economic factors are relatively decoupled from the changes of population aging, and population mobility has become a factor that can not be ignored in reshaping the pattern of regional population aging.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.24

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