陕西省人口分布的时空特征及其适度性研究

发布时间：2018-12-06 13:41

【摘要】：由于自然、历史、社会、经济和政策等各方面因素的限制和影响，人口时空分布有着多样性、复杂性以及综合性，是与多种社会关系相联系的社会实体。人口问题历来就是人文地理学研究的重点，也是当今世界发展的重要问题。20多年来，陕西省社会经济伴随着西部大开发等国家战略性措施发生了巨大的变化，人口作为社会生产力发展的必然基础也发生了明显变化。研究陕西省的人口时空分布现状特征及其演化规律，分析其影响因素及适度性对于全面掌握陕西省的人口时空分布格局及其变化特征具有重要意义，进而为制定合理的区域人口政策，实现陕西省人口的合理再分布提供可靠的依据，为最终实现陕西省人口、经济、资源、环境的可持续发展奠定基础。文章采用空间自相关、人口结构指数、人口重心、以及偏移分享分析等研究方法，以陕西省97个县市级行政区为研究单元、1990-2010年为研究区间，选取人口数及人口密度为研究对象，，运用ArcGIS、GeoDa等软件对陕西省人口空时空分布特征及其适度性进行了描述，并得到以下结论：①陕西省人口数量与人口密度空间分布存在中间高南北低的格局特征，这是基于三大区域不同的自然条件和经济基础；陕西省的人口密度空间分布呈现出正的空间相关性，人口的集聚性较强，以西安市为中心的关中核心区域形成了人口密度的高密度集聚区，陕北、陕南由于人口基数小，形成了人口密度的低低集聚区，而关中与陕北、陕南两大区域的过渡地带形成了县级行政单元人口密度的高低、低高集聚区。随着时间推移集聚性趋势略有减弱。陕西省人口空间分布的不均衡性比较显著，趋势有所上升。②1990年以来，陕西省人口重心向东北方向移动，移动速度有所加快，这与近年来陕北经济的快速增长所带动的劳动力增长有关。陕北、关中、陕南三大区域之间人口的偏移增长和三大区内部的偏移增长均处于上升趋势，三大区之间的偏移增长具有明显的差异性。③陕西省人口空间分布较为合理，但大部分县市人口潜力较小。人口潜力较大的县市主要分布于西南部的秦巴山地的山间盆地，关中、陕南大部分县市人口潜力指数适中，而人口潜力较小县市主要分布于陕北地区。未来，如何减小人口压力，促进经济-人口和谐发展以及对环境的保护成为陕西省将面临的重要课题。
[Abstract]:Because of the limitation and influence of natural, historical, social, economic and policy factors, the space-time distribution of population is diverse, complex and comprehensive, and it is a social entity connected with various social relations. Population has always been the focus of the study of human geography and an important issue in the development of the world today. In the past 20 years or so, the social economy of Shaanxi Province has undergone tremendous changes along with the strategic measures of countries such as the development of the western region. Population as the inevitable basis for the development of social productive forces has also undergone obvious changes. It is of great significance to study the present situation and evolution law of population space-time distribution in Shaanxi Province, and to analyze its influencing factors and appropriateness, which is of great significance for the comprehensive understanding of the population space-time distribution pattern and its changing characteristics in Shaanxi Province. It provides a reliable basis for making reasonable regional population policy and realizing rational redistribution of population in Shaanxi Province, and lays a foundation for the sustainable development of population, economy, resources and environment in Shaanxi Province. In this paper, spatial autocorrelation, population structure index, population center of gravity and offset sharing analysis were used to study 97 counties and municipalities in Shaanxi Province, and from 1990 to 2010. Taking population size and population density as the research object, this paper describes the spatial and temporal distribution of population and its appropriateness in Shaanxi Province by using ArcGIS,GeoDa and other software. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the spatial distribution of population quantity and population density in Shaanxi Province has the pattern characteristics of middle high, north, south and low, which is based on the different natural conditions and economic base of the three major regions; The spatial distribution of population density in Shaanxi Province shows positive spatial correlation, and the population concentration is relatively strong. The core region of Guanzhong with Xi'an as the center has formed a high-density concentration area of population density. The population base of northern Shaanxi and southern Shaanxi is small. The transition zone of Guanzhong, Northern Shaanxi and Southern Shaanxi formed the low and high population density of county administrative unit. With the passage of time, the trend of agglomeration slightly weakened. Since 1990, the population center of gravity in Shaanxi Province has moved to the northeast, and the speed of movement has accelerated. This is related to the growth of labor force driven by the rapid economic growth in northern Shaanxi in recent years. The migration growth of population between the three regions of northern Shaanxi, Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi is on an upward trend, and the migration growth among the three regions is obviously different. 3 the spatial distribution of population in Shaanxi Province is reasonable. But the population potential of most counties and cities is small. The counties and cities with large population potential are mainly distributed in the mountain basin of Qinba Mountains in the southwest. In Guanzhong, most counties and cities in southern Shaanxi have moderate population potential index, while the counties and cities with smaller population potential are mainly distributed in northern Shaanxi. In the future, how to reduce population pressure, promote the harmonious development of economy and population and protect the environment will become an important subject in Shaanxi Province.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C922

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