基于大数据分析的人口迁移量预测模型仿真

发布时间：2018-12-10 22:35

【摘要】：对人口迁移量进行准确的分析,是人口数量智能化发展方向,与环境、经济和政策等因素有关。人口迁移过程中,受到气候、战争、就业环境、疾病等众多因素的影响,对不同因素起到的作用大小很难进行有效界定。传统的预测方法在这种情况下,往往通过对各指标设定固定的权值,以更多的指标数据逼近真实的结果,虽然有一定效果,但是,在数据增加的同时,也没有很好地衡量各因素起到作用的大小,造成人口迁移量预测出现偏差。提出引入多种群竞争免疫算法的人口迁移量预测方法。对以往的人口迁移量相关数据进行统计,并计算上述不同属性数据之间的关联性。将多种群竞争相关理论引入到免疫算法中,进行人口迁移量预测。实验结果表明,利用改进算法进行大数据统计的人口迁移量预测,能够提高预测的准确性,满足人口规划的实际需求。
[Abstract]:Accurate analysis of population migration is the direction of intelligent development of population quantity, which is related to environmental, economic and policy factors. In the process of population migration, it is difficult to define the effect of different factors because of the influence of climate, war, employment environment, disease and so on. In this case, the traditional prediction method often sets a fixed weight value to each index, and approaches the real result with more index data. Although it has certain effect, but at the same time, the data increase, It also does not measure the effect of various factors well, resulting in the deviation of population migration prediction. This paper presents a population migration prediction method based on multi-group competitive immune algorithm. The previous data related to population migration are analyzed and the correlations between the above attributes are calculated. The theory of multi-group competition is introduced into the immune algorithm to predict the population migration. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the prediction can be improved and the actual demand of population planning can be satisfied by using the improved algorithm to forecast the population migration volume calculated by big data.
【作者单位】：郑州财经学院;
【分类号】：C92

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