中国人口年龄结构变动对资本投入及经济增长影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-15 20:26

【摘要】：物质资本和人力资本是经济增长的两大动力。本文通过构建数理模型,就人口年龄结构对物质、人力资本投入及经济增长的影响进行研究。理论分析发现:充足的劳动供给会促进物质资本投入和人力资本形成、推动经济增长。在理论模型基础上,利用1998-2014年我国30个省市的面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明:抚养负担减轻对经济增长贡献率为24.55%;在人力、物质资本投入对经济增长的影响因素中,少儿抚养比的作用弱于老年抚养比;当老年抚养比达16.04%时,物质资本投入对经济增长的偏效应降低至零;老年抚养比达19.15%时,人力资本投入对经济增长的偏效应降低至零。老年抚养比与经济增长呈倒U型关系,长期来看"第二人口红利"并不存在。
[Abstract]:Material capital and human capital are the two major driving forces of economic growth. This paper studies the effect of age structure of population on material, human capital input and economic growth by constructing mathematical model. Theoretical analysis shows that adequate labor supply can promote material capital input and human capital formation and promote economic growth. Based on the theoretical model, the empirical analysis is carried out on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2014. The results show that the contribution rate of reducing the dependency burden to the economic growth is 24.55; Among the influence factors of manpower and material capital investment on economic growth, the effect of children's dependency ratio is weaker than that of old age's dependency ratio, and the partial effect of material capital input on economic growth is reduced to zero when Prida is old age. The partial effect of human capital investment on economic growth was reduced to zero when the elderly brought up Prida 19.15. The old age dependency ratio is inversely U-shaped with economic growth, and the second demographic dividend does not exist in the long run.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学经济学院;
【基金】：2016年度辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“人口结构对辽宁省养老保险基金平衡的影响研究”(L16BRK002),项目负责人:宋琪
【分类号】：C924.2;F124

【相似文献】