河北省人口内部均衡发展评价与对策研究

发布时间：2018-12-16 09:51

【摘要】：人口是社会经济活动的主体，是影响可持续发展的重要因素。人口系统内部各要素变化之间的动态平衡是人口均衡发展的核心与基础。因此，人口内部均衡发展是实施人口均衡发展战略和可持续发展战略的必然要求。当前，河北省面临着人口数量、人口质量、人口结构与人口分布等问题错综交织的复杂局面。解决人口内部均衡问题以及实现人口与社会经济的协调发展，需要站在整体高度，综合评价人口系统内部均衡发展状况，并把握人口自身内部各要素之间的协调发展状况。本文在吸收、借鉴现有人口内部均衡发展理论、评价方法和评价指标体系的基础上，从人口发展水平、人口内部均衡度和人口内部均衡发展度三个层面对河北省人口内部均衡发展状况进行了实证评价。通过分析，得出以下结论：第一，河北省人口发展水平一直处于发展中期阶段，且人口系统内部各要素呈现非同步态势；河北省人口内部均衡度持续处于濒临失衡状态，主要由人口结构发展水平不同步所致。第二，人口数量对河北省人口内部均衡发展的制约作用逐渐减弱，但增长压力依然存在；河北省人口内部均衡发展的人口质量瓶颈正在得到改善，但制约作用依旧明显；人口结构对河北省人口内部均衡发展的制约作用逐渐显现，并正在成为其主要障碍。第三，实现河北省的人口内部均衡发展，，要求多种政策联动，但要突出重点。为此，要在维持适度低生育水平的同时，采取各种措施重点解决人口结构和人口质量问题。
[Abstract]:Population is the main body of social and economic activities and an important factor affecting sustainable development. The dynamic balance among the elements of the population system is the core and foundation of the balanced development of the population. Therefore, the balanced development of population is the inevitable requirement of implementing the strategy of population balanced development and sustainable development. At present, Hebei is faced with the complicated situation of population quantity, population quality, population structure and population distribution. To solve the problem of population internal equilibrium and to realize the harmonious development of population and social economy, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the internal balanced development of the population system and grasp the coordinated development among the elements of the population itself. On the basis of absorbing and drawing lessons from the existing theory of internal balanced development of population, evaluation methods and evaluation index system, this paper discusses the level of population development. Three levels of population internal equilibrium degree and population internal equilibrium development degree are used to evaluate the population internal equilibrium development in Hebei Province. Through analysis, the following conclusions are drawn: first, the level of population development in Hebei Province has been in the middle stage of development, and the internal elements of the population system show an asynchronous situation; The internal equilibrium of population in Hebei Province is on the verge of imbalance, which is mainly caused by the uneven development of population structure. Secondly, the restriction effect of population quantity on the balanced development of population in Hebei Province is gradually weakened, but the pressure of growth still exists, the bottleneck of population quality of the balanced development of population in Hebei Province is being improved, but the restriction function is still obvious. The restriction of population structure on the balanced development of population in Hebei Province has gradually appeared and is becoming the main obstacle. Third, to realize the balanced development of population in Hebei Province, a variety of policies should be coordinated, but the key points should be emphasized. Therefore, while maintaining a moderate low fertility level, various measures should be taken to solve the population structure and population quality problems.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.24

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