民族地区农村人口老龄化及其发展趋势研究——基于2000-2015年省际面板数据的经验分析
发布时间：2018-12-30 15:11
【摘要】：基于2000—2015年民族8省区数据,本文考察了民族地区农村人口老龄化的基本情况、影响因素以及发展趋势。研究发现:民族地区农村2002年开始步入了老龄社会,并且"城乡倒置"、"未富先老"特征突出;民族地区农村人口老龄化是多种因素共同作用的结果,其中医疗卫生条件、居民收入以及省际人口流动等具有显著的正向效应,出生率、死亡率以及教育发展等则具有显著的抑制作用;"十三五"末期民族地区农村人口的老龄化程度将进一步加深,迈入老年型Ⅱ期的省区将增加到4个,新疆农村人口中65岁及以上人口占比也将超过7%。为了有效应对民族地区农村人口老龄化带来的问题和挑战,政策措施方面迫切需要"摸家底"、"夯基础"、"强保障"、"聚合力"。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 8 provinces and regions of ethnic minorities from 2000 to 2015, this paper investigates the basic situation, influencing factors and development trend of the aging of rural population in ethnic minority areas. The study found that the rural areas of ethnic minority areas began to step into the aging society in 2002, and "urban and rural inversion", "old before rich" features; The aging of the rural population in ethnic minority areas is the result of a combination of many factors. Among them, medical and health conditions, residents' income and inter-provincial population mobility have a significant positive effect, the birth rate, etc. The death rate and the development of education were significantly inhibited. At the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the aging degree of the rural population in ethnic areas will be further deepened, the number of provinces and autonomous regions entering the second stage of the old type will increase to 4, and the proportion of the rural population in Xinjiang aged 65 and above will also exceed 7%. In order to effectively deal with the problems and challenges brought about by the aging of rural population in ethnic minority areas, it is urgent for policy measures to "touch the family background", "consolidate the foundation", "strong security" and "collective strength".
【作者单位】： 中南民族大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目“对口援藏援疆政策实施效果评价体系研究”(项目编号:17AMZ002) 教育部青年基金项目“民族地区人力资本与科技创新的动态匹配机制研究”(项目编号:16YJCZH003)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：C924.24
本文编号：2395743
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 8 provinces and regions of ethnic minorities from 2000 to 2015, this paper investigates the basic situation, influencing factors and development trend of the aging of rural population in ethnic minority areas. The study found that the rural areas of ethnic minority areas began to step into the aging society in 2002, and "urban and rural inversion", "old before rich" features; The aging of the rural population in ethnic minority areas is the result of a combination of many factors. Among them, medical and health conditions, residents' income and inter-provincial population mobility have a significant positive effect, the birth rate, etc. The death rate and the development of education were significantly inhibited. At the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the aging degree of the rural population in ethnic areas will be further deepened, the number of provinces and autonomous regions entering the second stage of the old type will increase to 4, and the proportion of the rural population in Xinjiang aged 65 and above will also exceed 7%. In order to effectively deal with the problems and challenges brought about by the aging of rural population in ethnic minority areas, it is urgent for policy measures to "touch the family background", "consolidate the foundation", "strong security" and "collective strength".
【作者单位】： 中南民族大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目“对口援藏援疆政策实施效果评价体系研究”(项目编号:17AMZ002) 教育部青年基金项目“民族地区人力资本与科技创新的动态匹配机制研究”(项目编号:16YJCZH003)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：C924.24
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