我国人口结构对住宅价格影响的实证研究

发布时间：2019-01-02 18:26

【摘要】：从2004年开始我国的住宅价格就一路快速上扬,住宅涉及到千家万户的利益,因此房价自然就成为了当前国人最为关注的问题之一。到底住宅市场的价格由何种因素决定众说纷纭。不少论文从投机、城镇化、土地制度、货币供应等角度对房价上涨的原因进行了探讨,但或多或少存在缺陷。本文试图从人口结构的角度来解释房价快速上涨的原因,其中,人口结构特指人口年龄结构和性别结构。绝大多数人买房是为了居住的。本文认为婚姻市场中的青年是购买住宅欲望最为强烈的人群,因为结婚成家后往往意味着离开父母,在自己的住所内开始新的生活。如果人口年龄结构里的青年人数增加,则表示婚姻市场的青年人数也将增加,而这很可能导致住宅市场的需求增加。同时,婚姻市场存在竞争。当男性数量多于女性时,男性为了能够在婚姻市场脱颖而出,会努力提高自身的竞争力。财富是衡量男性竞争力的一个重要指标,而对于大部分人来说,住宅是家庭中最为昂贵的一笔资产。因此,为了提高自身的竞争力,男性会努力在住宅市场购买房产。如果人口性别结构出现了失衡,则很可能导致住宅市场的需求增加。从2004年开始我国第三波婴儿潮的人口逐步进入婚姻市场,而且近年来我国的性别失衡现象越发严重,我认为人口年龄和性别结构上的变化会增加我国住宅市场的需求,从而加剧房价的上涨。本文有别于大多数的文章只是单从年龄结构或者性别结构的角度探讨住房价格背后的人口因素,本文先后利用大陆31个省份1998至2011年的数据,综合考虑了人口对住房价格的影响。统计结果显示,人口性别比与总人口抚养比对房价的影响较小但却是统计显著的。性别比每上升1%,房价上涨0.0152%；总人口抚养比上升1%,住宅价格下降0.0035%。通常认为我国的老龄化趋势会抑制住房需求,但是由于少儿抚养比的持续下降,近年来我国的总抚养比是不断下降的。随着性别比的上升和抚养比的下降,我国的人口结构每变化1%将引致住宅价格上涨0.0187%。综合来看,人口结构是影响房价变动的重要因素之一。
[Abstract]:Since 2004, the housing price of our country has been rising rapidly, the housing involves the interests of thousands of households, so the house price has naturally become one of the most concerned problems in China. The price of the housing market is determined by what factors vary widely. Many papers have probed into the reasons for the rise of house price from the angles of speculation, urbanization, land system and money supply, but there are more or less defects. This paper attempts to explain the reasons for the rapid rise in house prices from the point of view of population structure, in which the population structure refers to the age structure and gender structure of the population. Most people buy a house to live in. This paper holds that the young people in the marriage market are the most eager to buy houses because getting married and having a family often means leaving their parents and starting a new life in their own homes. If the number of young people in the age structure of the population increases, it means that the number of young people in the marriage market will also increase, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand in the housing market. At the same time, there is competition in the marriage market. When there are more men than women, men try to improve their competitiveness in order to stand out in the marriage market. Wealth is an important measure of men's competitiveness, and for most people, housing is the most expensive asset in a household. Therefore, in order to improve their competitiveness, men will try to buy property in the housing market. If there is an imbalance in the gender structure of the population, it is likely to lead to increased demand in the housing market. Since 2004, the third wave of baby boomers in our country has gradually entered the marriage market, and in recent years the gender imbalance in our country has become more and more serious. I think changes in the age and gender structure of the population will increase the demand for housing in our country. Thus exacerbating the rise in house prices. This paper is different from most articles only from the perspective of age structure or gender structure to explore the demographic factors behind housing prices. This paper uses data from 31 mainland provinces from 1998 to 2011. The effect of population on housing price is considered. The results show that the sex ratio of population to the ratio of the total population to the total population has little effect on house prices but is statistically significant. For every increase in the sex ratio, the housing price rises by 0.0152; the total dependency ratio rises by 1 and the housing price drops by 0.0035. It is generally believed that the aging trend of our country will restrain the housing demand, but the total dependency ratio of our country has been decreasing in recent years because of the continuous decline of the children's dependency ratio. With the increase of sex ratio and the decrease of dependency ratio, every 1% change in the population structure of our country will cause the housing price to rise 0.0187%. To sum up, the population structure is one of the important factors that affect the change of house price.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;C924.2

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