区域气候变化对中国人口死亡率的影响——基于面板数据的研究
发布时间：2019-01-21 11:43
【摘要】：文章构建了气候变化影响人口死亡率的面板模型,利用分段函数方法得到气候变化的代理变量,采用我国2004～2010年的日平均降雨量、日平均气温和人口死亡率的省域数据,建立了气候变化影响我国居民人口死亡率的面板模型。研究发现,人口死亡率—气温曲线呈现U型,并且曲线左低右高,在5～10℃区间人口死亡率最低,高温时病菌等更容易损害人体免疫力和抵抗力,导致人口死亡率增加。同时区域经济发达程度能够显著地影响人口死亡率,区域人均GDP每增加1万元能够降低人口死亡率0.1342人/千人,更高的生活质量和医疗服务条件是经济发展降低人口死亡率的重要原因。最后本文对模型进行了6种形式的扩展,发现模型具有良好的稳健性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the panel model of climate change affecting population mortality is constructed, and the proxy variables of climate change are obtained by using piecewise function method. The provincial data of daily average rainfall, daily average temperature and population mortality from 2004 to 2010 in China are used. A panel model of climate change affecting the mortality rate of population in China is established. It is found that the curve of population mortality and temperature is U-shaped, and the curve is low and right high, and the mortality rate is the lowest in the range of 5 ~ 10 鈩，
本文编号：2412635
[Abstract]:In this paper, the panel model of climate change affecting population mortality is constructed, and the proxy variables of climate change are obtained by using piecewise function method. The provincial data of daily average rainfall, daily average temperature and population mortality from 2004 to 2010 in China are used. A panel model of climate change affecting the mortality rate of population in China is established. It is found that the curve of population mortality and temperature is U-shaped, and the curve is low and right high, and the mortality rate is the lowest in the range of 5 ~ 10 鈩，
本文编号：2412635
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