生育政策调整目标人群总量与预期效果再检验
发布时间：2019-01-27 11:01
【摘要】：本文回顾以往采用宏观汇总数据和微观个案数据研究生育政策调整中存在的问题,认为在缺少两代人生育史的数据条件下研究"单独"二孩生育政策目标人群总量、结构是非常困难的。本文以2005年1%人口抽样调查、2013年国家卫计委生育意愿调查、2014年人口变动抽样调查和2015年1%人口抽样调查数据为基础,对不同来源的相同队列"单独"、"双非"育龄妇女比例数据进行对比,分析结果显示国家统计局2014年和2015年抽样调查数据具有高度的一致性和可靠性。在"单独"二孩政策调整前,如果单纯使用2005年和2013年调查数据将高估独生子女比例和"单独"一孩育龄妇女总量。根据2014年、2015年调查数据推断这两年"单独"一孩育龄妇女占全部一孩育龄妇女的比例在10%左右,"单独"二孩政策目标人群在1 500万以内,达到或超过1 500万的可能性几乎不存在。2015年"单独"一孩育龄妇女生育二孩总量在50万左右,远远低于国家卫计委200万左右的预期。2015年"双非"一孩育龄妇女占全部一孩育龄妇女的比例为85%左右,全面两孩政策新增目标人群在8 500万左右,达到或超过9 000万的可能性很小。即使没有全面两孩生育政策,2015年非农业"双非"生育二孩也在130万以上,而农业"双非"生育二孩在250万以上。
[Abstract]:This paper reviews the problems existing in the adjustment of fertility policy by using macro aggregate data and micro case data, and considers that the total number of target population of "single" two-child fertility policy is studied under the condition of lack of data on the fertility history of two generations. The structure is very difficult. Based on the data of 1% population sampling survey in 2005, the fertility intention survey of the State Health and Family Planning Commission in 2013, the population change sampling Survey in 2014 and the 1% population sample Survey in 2015, the same cohort of different sources is "isolated". The data on the proportion of women of childbearing age were compared and the results showed that the sample survey data of 2014 and 2015 of the National Bureau of Statistics had a high degree of consistency and reliability. Before the "separate" two-child policy was adjusted, the use of 2005 and 2013 data alone would overestimate the proportion of one-child children and the total number of women of "separate" one-child childbearing age. According to the 2014, 2015 survey data, the proportion of "single" one-child women in the last two years is about 10 percent of all women of one-child age, and the target population of the "separate" two-child policy is less than 15 million. The possibility of reaching or surpassing 15 million is virtually non-existent. In 2015, the total number of children born "alone" to women of one-child age was about 500000. In 2015, the proportion of women of "double Africa" one-child childbearing age accounted for about 85 percent of all women of one-child childbearing age, and the number of new target groups for the comprehensive two-child policy was about 85 million. The odds of reaching or exceeding 90 million are slim. Even in the absence of a comprehensive two-child policy, the number of two-child births in 2015 was more than 1.3 million in non-agriculture and 2.5 million in agriculture.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目:人口统计调查的国际前沿理论及其在中国的应用(16ZDA090)
【分类号】：C924.21
本文编号：2416198
[Abstract]:This paper reviews the problems existing in the adjustment of fertility policy by using macro aggregate data and micro case data, and considers that the total number of target population of "single" two-child fertility policy is studied under the condition of lack of data on the fertility history of two generations. The structure is very difficult. Based on the data of 1% population sampling survey in 2005, the fertility intention survey of the State Health and Family Planning Commission in 2013, the population change sampling Survey in 2014 and the 1% population sample Survey in 2015, the same cohort of different sources is "isolated". The data on the proportion of women of childbearing age were compared and the results showed that the sample survey data of 2014 and 2015 of the National Bureau of Statistics had a high degree of consistency and reliability. Before the "separate" two-child policy was adjusted, the use of 2005 and 2013 data alone would overestimate the proportion of one-child children and the total number of women of "separate" one-child childbearing age. According to the 2014, 2015 survey data, the proportion of "single" one-child women in the last two years is about 10 percent of all women of one-child age, and the target population of the "separate" two-child policy is less than 15 million. The possibility of reaching or surpassing 15 million is virtually non-existent. In 2015, the total number of children born "alone" to women of one-child age was about 500000. In 2015, the proportion of women of "double Africa" one-child childbearing age accounted for about 85 percent of all women of one-child childbearing age, and the number of new target groups for the comprehensive two-child policy was about 85 million. The odds of reaching or exceeding 90 million are slim. Even in the absence of a comprehensive two-child policy, the number of two-child births in 2015 was more than 1.3 million in non-agriculture and 2.5 million in agriculture.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目:人口统计调查的国际前沿理论及其在中国的应用(16ZDA090)
【分类号】：C924.21
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