中国的家庭结构转变——来自居住方式与人口因素的作用

发布时间：2019-02-12 07:04

【摘要】：基于历次人口普查数据,利用SOCSIM微观模拟方法将家庭转变的关键影响因素分解为人口因素和居住方式因素两个方面,并进一步将人口因素分解为人口惯性、生育率、死亡率和结婚率四个层面进行计量分析。结果发现,当前人口变动相对稳定,较小的波动使其在家庭转变中的贡献率相对较小,而居住方式的影响相对较大;对人口因素的进一步分解还发现,人口惯性及生育率水平的作用相对更大,生育率水平、结婚率水平带来的影响与人口因素的总影响方向是一致的,均提高了一人户、一代户、二代户的人口比重,降低了三代及以上户的人口比重。与之相反,死亡率的影响与人口因素的总影响方向是相反的。
[Abstract]:Based on the previous census data, the key factors of family transformation are decomposed into two aspects: population factor and living mode factor, and the population factor is further decomposed into population inertia and fertility rate by using SOCSIM microscopic simulation method. Mortality rate and marriage rate were measured in four levels. The results show that the current population change is relatively stable, and the small fluctuation makes the contribution rate in the family transition relatively small, while the impact of the living style is relatively greater. The further decomposition of population factors also shows that the effects of population inertia and fertility levels are relatively greater, and the effects of fertility levels and marriage rates are consistent with the overall impact direction of population factors, all of which have increased one-person households and one-generation households. The population proportion of the second generation household has reduced the population proportion of the third generation household and above. In contrast, the impact of mortality is opposite to the overall impact of demographic factors.
【作者单位】：中国人口与发展研究中心调查评估数据部;中国人民大学社会与人口学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“生命历程视角下流动人口社会融入分析:基于队列的分析”(15CRK005);国家社会科学基金重大项目“全面两孩生育政策的实施效应研究”(15ZDC036)
【分类号】：C924.2

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