充分利用人口红利促进我国经济可持续发展的问题研究

发布时间：2019-03-31 13:39

【摘要】：“人口红利”作为一个新近出现与人口变动有关的经济理论，主要研究人口年龄结构变动与经济增长的关系。近些年来，由于中国经济的飞速增长和人口老龄化进程的加快，这一理论引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。本文主要尝试着从马克思的产业后备军理论、刘易斯的二元经济结构理论和田雪原的人口红利观点来探索人口红利理论的起源，综述专家学者的观点，对人口红利的内涵和外延进行概述，从劳动力资源被充分利用、劳动力能够自由流动、较高的劳动力人口素质、劳动力本身有意愿参与劳动四个方面简单总结人口红利的实现条件，以及促进经济增长的动因。基于以上理论基础，在第六次人口普查的基础上，利用已有研究者的研究方法，判断我国当前人口结构处于人口红利期，确切的说处于人口暴利期，并一步判断人口红利期将于2030年结束。同时，总结我国的人口红利呈现的特点：生育水平短期内急剧下降，未富先老，人口红利期与社会转型、改革开放同步以及面临其他国家的冲击。改革开放以来，我国经济迅速发展离不开人口因素的作用，有利的人口年龄结构为我国提供了充足的劳动力资源，利用实证方法，研究30年来我国人口红利对经济增长的贡献，计算出贡献率，但同时人口红利在发挥作用的同时，也带来一些负面影响：过分依赖廉价劳动力，工资趋同日渐明显；未充分发挥人力资本的优势，忽视技术创新和效率提高；能源利用效率低下，环境污染问题突出。这些都影响着人口红利发挥作用，总结出制约人口红利发挥作用的因素，包括巨大就业压力的影响、二元户籍管理制度的障碍、劳动力素质偏低和社会保障制度不健全四个方面。同时，放眼国外，借鉴国外利用人口红利的经验，以日本国家为代表，介绍日本利用人口红利的概况，积极汲取这个国家收获人口红利的成功经验，重视人力资源开发与积累，，冷静对待中国人口老龄化过快问题，注重全要素生产率的提高，建立和谐的劳资关系，为我国日后持续开发人口红利提供借鉴和思考。为了更好的抓住短暂而难得机遇，延长我国的人口红利期，从四个方面提出了充分利用人口红利促进可持续发展的对策建议：实施积极的就业政策，充分利用当前人口红利；加快推进剩余劳动力转移，促进劳动力自由有序流动；提高劳动力素质，注重人力资源的开发；建立可持续的养老保障模式，充分挖掘第二次人口红利。
[Abstract]:As a new economic theory related to population change, demographic dividend mainly studies the relationship between the change of population age structure and economic growth. In recent years, due to the rapid growth of China's economy and the acceleration of population aging process, this theory has attracted wide attention from scholars at home and abroad. This paper attempts to explore the origin of the theory of demographic dividend from Marx's theory of industrial reserve, Lewis's theory of dual economic structure and Tian Xueyuan's viewpoint of demographic dividend, and summarizes the views of experts and scholars. This paper summarizes the connotation and extension of the population dividend, from the view that the labor force resources are fully utilized, the labor force can move freely, and the quality of the labor force is high. The labor force itself has the intention to participate in the four aspects of labor to summarize the conditions for the realization of the demographic dividend, as well as the motivation to promote economic growth. Based on the above theoretical basis, on the basis of the sixth census, using the research methods of existing researchers, we can judge that the current population structure of our country is in the period of population profit, to be exact, it is in the period of population exuberance. And a step to determine that the population dividend period will end in 2030. At the same time, the characteristics of the demographic dividend in China are summarized as follows: the fertility level drops sharply in a short period of time, before becoming rich, the population benefit period is in line with the social transformation, the reform and opening up are synchronized, and the impact from other countries is faced. Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, the rapid development of our economy depends on the role of population factors. The favorable age structure of the population has provided sufficient labor resources for our country. Using empirical methods, we have studied the contribution of population dividends to economic growth in the past 30 years. Calculate the contribution rate, but at the same time, the demographic dividend plays a role, but also brings some negative effects: excessive reliance on cheap labor, the convergence of wages is becoming more and more obvious; Without giving full play to the advantages of human capital, neglecting technological innovation and efficiency improvement, energy utilization efficiency is low, environmental pollution is prominent. All these influence the function of population dividend, sum up the factors that restrict the function of population dividend, including the influence of great employment pressure, the obstacle of dual household registration management system, The labor force quality is on the low side and the social security system is not perfect four aspects. At the same time, looking abroad, drawing lessons from the experience of foreign countries in making use of the demographic dividend, taking Japan as the representative, this paper introduces the general situation of Japan's utilization of the demographic dividend, actively draws on the successful experience of this country in reaping the demographic dividend, and attaches importance to the development and accumulation of human resources. Treat the problem of population aging too fast calmly, pay attention to the improvement of total factor productivity, establish harmonious labor-capital relations, and provide reference and thinking for the sustainable development of population dividend in China in the future. In order to seize the short-term and rare opportunity and extend the population dividend period of our country, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of making full use of the population dividend to promote sustainable development from four aspects: implementing the positive employment policy and making full use of the current population dividend; We should accelerate the transfer of surplus labor force, promote the free and orderly flow of labor force, improve the quality of labor force, pay attention to the development of human resources, establish a sustainable old-age security model, and fully exploit the second demographic dividend.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F124;C924.2

【参考文献】