上海市人口发展的趋势、困境及调控策略

发布时间：2019-04-02 15:57

【摘要】：探讨了上海人口规模调控问题。认为在中国城镇化大背景之下,上海人口将继续保持快速增长势头,然而膨胀的城市规模将使城市交通难以承受,人口规模调控从长远考虑势在必行。但是,基于年龄结构与用地视角的分析却从另一方面揭示了调控的困难。面对必要性与困难并存的局面,研究认为从长远发展出发,必须坚持积极调控的方针,不可本末倒置;同时应注重策略的合理性,尽可能降低调控的不利影响,避免过度与失衡。面对如何调控的问题,研究认为关键在于城市职能的疏散。通过对上海市就业岗位、产业用地以及人口规模关系的分析,论证了以产业结构调整为着眼点,通过就业职能的疏解实现人口调控的可行性,进而明确人口规模调控的方向。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the regulation of population size in Shanghai. It is considered that under the background of urbanization in China, the population of Shanghai will continue to grow rapidly. However, the inflated urban scale will make the urban transportation unbearable, and it is imperative to adjust and control the population size from a long-term point of view. However, the analysis based on age structure and land use perspective reveals the difficulty of regulation. In the face of the co-existence of necessity and difficulty, the study thinks that from the long-term development, we must adhere to the policy of active regulation and control, not put the cart before the horse; At the same time, we should pay attention to the rationality of the strategy, reduce the adverse effects of regulation as far as possible, and avoid excessive and unbalanced. Facing the problem of how to regulate and control, the research thinks the key lies in the evacuation of city function. Based on the analysis of the relationship among employment post, industrial land and population scale in Shanghai, this paper demonstrates the feasibility of realizing population regulation and control with the focus on the adjustment of industrial structure and the neglect of employment functions, and then clarifies the direction of population regulation and control.
【作者单位】：同济大学建筑与城市规划学院高密度人居环境生态与节能教育部重点实验室;上海同济城市规划设计研究院;同济大学建筑与城市规划学院;
【分类号】：C924.24

【共引文献】