生育政策调整对农村人口结构的影响

发布时间：2019-05-07 21:28

【摘要】：生育政策调整会改变人们的生育行为,进而对未来人口结构发展趋势产生重要的影响。根据生育政策调整幅度设定三种生育政策实施方案,运用队列分要素法的基本原理构建农村人口预测模型,以全国第六次人口普查数据为基础对2014-2035年中国农村人口进行预测。结果表明:方案一中,农村出生人口规模将进一步缩减,到2035年,人口结构金字塔呈"倒三角"形态,人口发展的衰退趋势明显;方案二中,农村出生人口规模会明显增加,到2035年人口老龄化程度较方案一有所缓解;方案三中,农村出生人口数进一步增加,到2035年人口结构将更加年轻化,人口发展较为稳定。可以说,目前我国计划生育政策的调整有利于缓解农村地区的人口结构性矛盾,促进人口与经济、社会的和谐发展。
[Abstract]:The adjustment of the birth policy will change the people's reproductive behavior, and then have an important influence on the development trend of the future population structure. Based on the basic principle of cohort element method, the rural population prediction model is constructed based on the basic principle of the population policy adjustment, and the rural population of China is predicted in 2014-2035 based on the national 6th population census data. The results show that in the first one, the size of the rural-born population will be further reduced. By 2035, the population structure pyramid is in the form of a "inverted triangle", and the declining trend of population development is obvious; in the second two, the size of the rural-born population will increase significantly, In that third part of the plan, the population structure of the rural area will be further increase, and the population structure will be more young and the population development is more stable in 2035. It can be said that the adjustment of the policy of family planning in our country is beneficial to the alleviation of the structural contradiction of the population in the rural areas, and to promote the harmonious development of the population and the economy and society.
【作者单位】：安徽大学人口研究所;安徽大学经济学院;
【基金】：安徽大学农村改革与经济社会发展研究院2014年度公开招标课题(ADNY201415)
【分类号】：C924.21

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