人口普查净误差估计中的三系统估计量研究

发布时间：2019-05-14 23:33

【摘要】：本文针对作为当今人口普查质量评估领域主流方法的双系统估计量因受独立性不满足困扰而有偏估计总体人数的问题,明确提出了用三系统估计量替代双系统估计量的研究目标。三系统估计量指的是依据对同一时点上同一总体的人口普查、人口普查之后的质量评估调查和人口行政记录系统这三个不同途径获得的三份人口登记数据来估计总体人数所使用的估计量。为实现上述目标,采用实地调研、数理模型、抽样估计与实证分析相结合的研究方法,以及借鉴国际相关前沿研究成果的研究思路,研究了人口普查质量评估中三系统估计量的构建、三系统估计量应用操作等问题。通过理论与实证研究,得出如下结论:三系统估计量能够有效地摆脱双系统估计量的独立性约束从而解决估计量偏误的问题;将三系统估计量应用于人口普查质量评估,必须科学合理地解决三个人口登记系统定格在统一的标准时点、人口在三个登记系统等概率分层、用人口普查质量评估调查样本对三系统估计量再估计等实践方面的问题;基于Logistic回归模型的三系统估计量可以较好地实现人口等概率分层目标,但尚有较多的理论与实践问题有待研究解决,在这一问题上有着相当大的研究空间。建议我国在未来人口普查质量评估中应用三系统估计量。
[Abstract]:In this paper, as the mainstream method in the field of census quality assessment, the two-system Estimator, which is not satisfied by independence, is used to estimate the total number of people. The research goal of replacing two-system Estimator with three-system Estimator is put forward. The three-system estimate refers to the basis of a census of the same population at the same time point. Three population registration data obtained through three different channels, the quality assessment survey after the census and the population administrative recording system, are used to estimate the estimates used in the overall population. In order to achieve the above objectives, this paper adopts the research methods of field research, mathematical model, sampling estimation and empirical analysis, as well as the research ideas of drawing lessons from the relevant international frontier research results. The construction of three system Estimators and the application and operation of three system Estimators in census quality assessment are studied. Through theoretical and empirical research, the following conclusions are drawn: the three-system Estimator can effectively get rid of the independence constraint of the dual-system Estimator and solve the problem of the error of the Estimator; In order to apply the three-system estimation to the quality assessment of the census, it is necessary to scientifically and reasonably solve the probability stratification of the three population registration systems at the unified standard time point and the population in the three registration systems. Some practical problems, such as re-estimation of three system estimates by using census quality assessment survey samples, are discussed. The three-system Estimator based on Logistic regression model can achieve the goal of population equal probability stratification, but there are still many theoretical and practical problems to be solved, and there is a lot of research space in this problem. It is suggested that three system estimates should be applied in the quality evaluation of future census in China.
【作者单位】：重庆工商大学;明尼苏达大学人口中心;美国明尼苏达大学人口中心;
【基金】：2016年重庆市社会科学规划重大委托项目“人口普查质量评估前沿理论研究”(2016WT03) 国家社会科学基金一般项目“人口普查净误差估计中的三系统估计量研究”(15BTJ011) 全国统计科学研究重点项目“我国户籍登记系统覆盖评估研究”(2016LZ29) 美国儿童健康和人类发展研究院、美国健康研究院及人口统计和行为科学项目“亚欧人口普查样本数据整合”(R01HD047283)资助
【分类号】：C924.2

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