我国人口老龄化程度以及老年人口量与质的实证分析——基于“四普”、“五普”和“六普”数据

发布时间：2019-06-20 20:19

【摘要】：文章基于"四普"、"五普"和"六普"数据,从时空变迁的视角以及静态和动态两个维度对全国31个省区市人口老龄化程度及其质量进行实证分析。得到如下结论:(1)我国正进入快速老龄化阶段;(2)东部地区先于中部和西部地区进入老年型社会,但中部和西部地区人口老龄化程度有与东部不断接近的趋势;(3)我国各地区前瞻年龄的分布区间不断前移,老年人口越活越长寿,但始终存在着平均前瞻年龄东部中部西部的差序格局。(4)从老年人口系数与前瞻年龄的交叉分析看,老年人口的长寿程度与人口老龄化进程有关;(5)从养老资源与人口老龄化的关系看,养老资源增长率与人口老龄化增长率并不匹配。总体上我国并未成功应对人口老龄化。文章认为,为应对人口老龄化,实现"十三五"规划,应从顶层设计的高度加快推进养老服务基础设施建设,着力改善中西部地区老年人口的营养状况和医疗卫生水平,同时推进社会化养老服务建设,合理分布养老资源。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of "four popular", "five popular" and "six popular", this paper makes an empirical analysis on the aging degree and quality of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and cities in China from the perspective of temporal and spatial changes and static and dynamic dimensions. The conclusions are as follows: (1) China is entering the stage of rapid aging, (2) the eastern region enters the elderly society ahead of the central and western regions, but the aging degree of the population in the central and western regions tends to be close to that in the east. (3) the distribution range of prospective age in various regions of China continues to move forward, and the older the elderly population lives, the longer the elderly population lives, but there is always the difference pattern between the average prospective age in the east, the central part and the west. (4) from the cross analysis of the elderly population coefficient and the prospective age, the longevity degree of the elderly population is related to the aging process of the population; (5) from the relationship between pension resources and population aging, the growth rate of pension resources does not match the growth rate of population aging. On the whole, China has not successfully responded to the aging of the population. The paper holds that in order to cope with the aging of the population and realize the 13th five-year Plan, we should speed up the construction of pension service infrastructure from the top-level design, focus on improving the nutritional status and medical and health level of the elderly population in the central and western regions, and promote the construction of socialized pension services and the rational distribution of old-age resources.
【作者单位】：上海应用技术大学人文学院;
【基金】：上海应用技术大学引进人才科研启动项目(项目编号:YJ2015-49) 国家社科基金一般项目(项目编号:16BGL149)资助
【分类号】：C924.24

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