中国人口年龄结构与居民消费关系的比较分析

发布时间：2019-08-02 17:15

【摘要】：老龄化对老龄人口自身消费将产生影响;老龄化通过影响储蓄率、劳动供给、劳动生产率、经济增长将间接作用于消费需求。实证分析表明:收入对居民消费支出的影响显著,收入越低的地方边际消费倾向越大;老年抚养比的提高是导致居民消费降低的一个重要原因。城乡比较显示:人口老龄化的提高显著降低了城市居民的消费支出,而对农村居民的影响不显著;少儿抚养比的提高显著增加了城乡居民的消费支出;老年负担率的提高显著降低了城镇居民的消费支出,而对农村居民的影响比较微弱。东中西部地区比较表明:人口老龄化对居民消费的影响由大到小依次是东部、中部、西部;少儿抚养比对居民消费的影响由大到小为中部、西部、东部;老年负担率对居民消费的影响由大到小为东部、中部、西部。
[Abstract]:Aging will have an impact on the consumption of the elderly population, and aging will indirectly affect the consumption demand by affecting the savings rate, labor supply, labor productivity and economic growth. The empirical analysis shows that the influence of income on residents' consumption expenditure is significant, and the lower the income is, the greater the marginal propensity to consume is, and the increase of dependency ratio of the elderly is an important reason for the decrease of residents' consumption. The comparison between urban and rural areas shows that the increase of population aging significantly reduces the consumption expenditure of urban residents, but has no significant impact on rural residents; the increase of child dependency ratio significantly increases the consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents; the increase of old age burden rate significantly reduces the consumption expenditure of urban residents, but the impact on rural residents is relatively weak. The comparison between the east and the west shows that the influence of population aging on residents' consumption is from big to small in the east, middle and west, and the influence of child dependency ratio on residents' consumption is from big to small in the middle, west and east, and the influence of the old age burden rate on the residents' consumption is from big to small in the east, the middle and the west.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学消费经济研究;西南财经大学消费经济研究所;哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：霍英东教育基金会项目(131085) 国家自然科学基金(71103051) 国家社科基金项目(08CJL007) 教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”项目(NCET-12-0927)资助
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.7

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