基于出生队列的中国人口性别结构特征分析

发布时间：2019-08-06 18:07

【摘要】：一个国家的人口性别结构主要由出生人口性别比、死亡人口性别比、国际迁移人口性别比共同决定。中国并非移民国家,人口性别比结构主要由出生人口性别比和死亡人口性别比共同决定。本文利用各年普查数据进行估算和预测,构建连续的出生队列并以此数据对我国人口性别结构进行分析。研究认为中国人口性别比长期持续偏高,而在我国的生育文化特征下女性人口在低龄组更容易被瞒报,所以统计数据的瞒报、漏报在一定程度上夸大了低龄组人口性别比偏高的程度,但不能把瞒报、漏报认定为性别比偏高的主因。根据生物学一般规律,在同等客观条件下男性的死亡概率在任何年龄均高于女性,总体上同一出生队列的人口从出生到进入婚龄,男性死亡人口规模大于女性,所以婚龄人口性别比在没有国际人口迁移影响的前提下必然要小于出生人口性别比。低年龄组死亡人口性别比对于婚龄人口性别比具有重要影响,但由于科技进步和医疗水平的提高,死亡率不断降低,死亡人口性别比不会给婚龄人口性别比带来决定性的影响,不会改变出生人口性别比偏高会导致婚龄人口性别比偏高的基本事实。通过对2020年婚龄人口相应出生队列的分析,认为无论采用哪种数据来源和方法计算,持续偏高的出生人口性别比必然会导致婚龄人口性别比失衡,进而导致一系列的社会、经济以及文化问题。
[Abstract]:The sex structure of a country is mainly determined by the sex ratio of birth population, the sex ratio of death population and the sex ratio of international migrants. China is not an immigration country, and the structure of population sex ratio is mainly determined by the sex ratio of birth population and the sex ratio of death population. In this paper, the continuous birth cohort is constructed by using the census data of each year to estimate and predict, and the gender structure of the population in China is analyzed by using the data. The study holds that the sex ratio of Chinese population continues to be high for a long time, but under the characteristics of fertility culture in our country, the female population is more likely to be underreported in the younger age group, so the underreporting of statistical data exaggerates the degree of the high sex ratio of the low age group to a certain extent, but the underreporting can not be regarded as the main cause of the high sex ratio. According to the general law of biology, the probability of death of men is higher than that of women at any age under the same objective conditions. on the whole, the death population of the same birth cohort is larger than that of women from birth to marriage age, so the sex ratio of married age population must be smaller than that of birth population without the influence of international population migration. The sex ratio of death population in the low age group has an important influence on the sex ratio of the married age population, but due to the improvement of scientific and technological progress and medical level, the mortality rate continues to decrease. The sex ratio of the death population will not have a decisive impact on the sex ratio of the married age population, and will not change the basic fact that the high sex ratio of the birth population will lead to the high sex ratio of the married age population. Based on the analysis of the corresponding birth cohort of the married age population in 2020, it is considered that no matter what kind of data sources and methods are used, the continuously high sex ratio of the birth population will inevitably lead to the imbalance of the sex ratio of the married age population, which will lead to a series of social, economic and cultural problems.
【作者单位】：吉林大学东北亚研究中心;吉林大学党委办公室;
【基金】：吉林大学基本科研业务费项目─种子基金项目:“候鸟”式异地养老问题研究(450060522269);吉林大学哲学社会科学研究重大课题培育项目:我国人口长期均衡发展战略研究(2015ZDPY15) 国家社会科学基金项目:“人的城镇化”理论与制度创新研究(14BRK035)
【分类号】：C924.21

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