全球城市宜居性评价及发展趋势预测——以上海市为例

发布时间：2018-03-04 21:24

本文选题：城市　切入点：宜居性　出处：《华东师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：全球城市是世界城市化发展的一个必然现象,作为城市发展的高级形态,在社会、经济、文化和政治层面直接影响着全球事务.上海作为中国现代化的引领者,提高宜居性是其建设全球城市的重要目标之一.参考已有的全球城市宜居性评价指标体系,根据现代城市发展特点对指标进行了修正,并以上海市为典型案例,结合全球城市纽约和东京的发展历程,验证了全球城市宜居性发展的N型曲线假说:即随着城市人均收入的增长,城市宜居性经历了"上升-下降-上升"的发展阶段.通过因素分解方法分析了不同发展阶段城市宜居性的主要影响因子,同时采用指数平滑法和Logistic增长模型对上海市未来30年宜居性进行了四种情景预测.以东京为参照,得出了未来30年上海能达到最高宜居性的结论,可为上海全球城市的宜居环境建设提供方向.
[Abstract]:As a high-level form of urban development, global cities directly affect global affairs in social, economic, cultural and political aspects. Shanghai is the leader of China's modernization. The improvement of livability is one of the important goals for the construction of global cities. Referring to the existing evaluation index system of livability of global cities, the index is revised according to the characteristics of modern urban development, and Shanghai is taken as a typical case. Combined with the development of New York and Tokyo, the N-type curve hypothesis of the livable development of cities in the world is verified: that is, with the increase of urban per capita income, Urban livability has experienced the development stage of "rising-descending-rising". The main influencing factors of urban livability in different development stages are analyzed by factor decomposition method. At the same time, the exponential smoothing method and Logistic growth model are used to predict the livability of Shanghai in the next 30 years. Taking Tokyo as the reference, the conclusion that Shanghai can reach the highest livability in the next 30 years is obtained. It can provide directions for the construction of livable environment in Shanghai.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学上海市城市化生态过程与生态恢复重点实验室;华东师范大学生态与环境科学学院;华东师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：上海市哲学社科规划课题(2014BCK001) 教育部人文社科规划基金(14YJAZH028) 上海市教育委员会科研创新项目(14ZS053) 上海市政府决策咨询研究项目(2014-A-55-B)
【分类号】：K901

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