近1000年长江中下游旱涝与气候变化关系

发布时间：2018-03-20 15:29

本文选题：长江中下游　切入点：旱涝灾害　出处：《第四纪研究》2004年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章利用旱涝灾害历史记载与现代器测降水资料重建长江中下游旱涝灾害等级序列 ,并通过相关分析与波谱分析、交叉谱分析等分别探讨了长江中下游旱涝灾害发生与东太平洋海水表面温度 (SST)以及太阳活动 (太阳黑子数 )的关系。结果表明 ,长江中下游涝灾多发生于气候过渡期 ,即涝灾在气候由一种气候状态向另一种气候状态转变时期多发。谱分析与交叉谱分析结果表明 ,长江中下游旱涝灾害等级序列在 10～ 11年周期上与太阳黑子数存在相关 ,但两者有近 1年的滞后性。长江中下游旱涝灾害与SST的相关关系分析表明 ,SST正距平年份 ,往往对应着长江中下游的涝灾 ;而SST负距平年份往往对应着长江中下游旱灾。因而可以认为 ,SST与太阳活动变化(太阳黑子数量变化 )在不同周期频度上对长江中下游旱涝灾害具有明显影响。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical records of drought and waterlogging disasters and modern precipitation data, this paper reconstructs the sequence of drought and waterlogging disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and through correlation analysis and spectral analysis, The relationship between drought and waterlogging in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the sea surface temperature (SST) and solar activity (the number of sunspots) in the eastern Pacific is discussed by cross spectrum analysis. Most waterlogging disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River occur in the transitional period of climate, that is, during the transition period of climate from one climatic state to another, the results of spectral analysis and cross-spectral analysis show that, The sequence of drought and waterlogging disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is related to sunspot number in 10 ~ 11 years period, but they have been delayed for nearly one year. The correlation analysis between drought and flood disaster and SST in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River shows that there is a positive anomaly year between the drought and waterlogging disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It often corresponds to the waterlogging disaster in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; However, the negative anomaly year of SST often corresponds to drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, so it can be concluded that the variation of SST and solar activity (the number of sunspots) has a significant influence on the drought and flood disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in different frequency.
【作者单位】：中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目 (批准号 :40 2 71112 ) 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (批准号 :KZCX3 -SW -3 3 1) 中国博士后基金与王宽诚博士后工作奖励基金项目 (香港 )
【分类号】：K928.6

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