基于GIS的县域耕地压力时空演变与预测研究
发布时间：2018-09-19 12:22
【摘要】：耕地是宝贵的自然资源,在保障国家粮食安全和经济社会持续健康发展方面发挥着重要作用。随着城镇化、工业化的不断推进,有限的耕地被大量占用,耕地数量急剧减少。德(阳)绵(阳)地区作为成德绵经济带的重要组成部分,是城镇化发展的核心区域,人均耕地面积日益减少,截止2014年底,已有47%的县域人均耕地面积低于0.053hm2(联合国粮农组织确定的人均耕地警戒线)。在“五化同步”和“一要吃饭,二要建设”的大背景下,耕地保护和粮食安全成为各级政府和国家土地管理部门重点关注的问题。基于此,本研究在总结前人有关耕地压力和粮食安全问题研究成果基础上,借鉴蔡运龙教授所提出的耕地压力指数模型,对2000—2014年德(阳)绵(阳)地区15个县(区、市)的耕地压力指数进行测算。借助ArcGIS10.2软件对耕地压力进行时空演变分析。利用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对未来10年各县域的耕地压力指数进行预测分区,并提出针对性的耕地保护模式。主要研究结论如下:(1)从时序变化角度分析,2000—2014年间,德(阳)绵(阳)地区15个县(区、市)耕地压力指数变化总体上均呈逐年增大趋势,除涪城区和北川县变化趋势较为突出外,其余县域变化趋势相对和缓。截止2014年底,耕地压力最为明显的7个县(区、市)为:涪城区(K=3.7542)北川县(K=2.3237)旌阳区(K=1.3687)平武县(K=1.3078)江油市(K=1.3048)游仙区(K=1.1141)什邡市(K=1.0125);其余8个县(区、市)耕地压力不明显(K1)。就耕地压力指数变化速率而言,涪城区(138.14%)北川县(133.37%)平武县(50.30%)旌阳区(41.44%)游仙区(34.28%)江油市(31.72%)什邡市(27.66%);8个耕地压力不明显县(区、市)中,罗江县耕地压力指数变化率高达42.32%,远大于其他7个耕地压力不明显县域,由此说明,耕地压力变化速率快慢与耕地压力大小不完全一致。(2)从空间分异角度分析,2000—2014年德(阳)绵(阳)地区15个县(区、市)耕地压力指数演变过程,总体上县域耕地压力均呈现不断增加的趋势,且中部主城区和西北部县域更加明显。其中,耕地压力较大区域主要分布在中部的旌阳区、涪城区及其北部的北川县、平武县、江油市。就演变速率而言,2000—2007年,15个县(区、市)中60%为耕地压力缓慢变化和较缓变化类型,其中变化率最大的3个县(区、市)是游仙区(14.79%)、什邡市(13.31%)和安县(12.04%);27%的县(区、市)为中速变化类型;无中高速变化类型;仅13%的县(区、市)为急剧变化类型。2007—2014年,中速变化类型区演变为平武县、旌阳区、游仙区;缓慢变化类型和较缓变化类型数量由原来的60%上升为67%,新增江油市、罗江县;仍不存在中高速变化类型;急剧变化类型区保持不变。(3)从重心移动轨迹分析,2000—2014年德(阳)绵(阳)地区15个县(区、市)耕地压力重心存在由东南部向西北部县域逐年移动的趋势,说明西北部县域耕地压力逐年上升趋势更加明显;从经纬度坐标变化距离分析得到,纬度上移动距离大于经度上移动距离,说明研究区范围内,南北走向的县域间耕地压力变化差异更大,耕地压力在空间上的非均衡性更为突出。(4)从预测结果分析,未来10年15个县(区、市)耕地压力呈北部县域和主城区耕地压力明显增大,东南部的丘陵区县域耕地压力有所降低趋势。具体来看,变化趋势分为四种类型:急剧上升型、缓慢上升型、基本稳定型和缓慢下降型。(5)从耕地保护模式分析,基于对预测结果的综合分析,并结合各县域资源禀赋差异,对县域耕地压力进行分区,探求提出四种耕地保护模式:“优耕稳益”模式、“重挖潜,高预警”模式、“优化耕地生产力”模式和“适度经济”模式,以期对未来不同县域制定具体的耕地保护政策提供一定的决策参考。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is a precious natural resource and plays an important role in ensuring national food security and sustainable and healthy economic and social development. With the continuous promotion of urbanization and industrialization, the limited cultivated land has been occupied by a large number, and the number of cultivated land has decreased sharply. At the end of 2014, 47% of the counties had less than 0.053 hm2 per capita cultivated land. Under the background of "synchronization of the five modernizations" and "food and food, and construction", cultivated land protection and food security have become the land of governments and countries at all levels. On the basis of summing up the previous research results on farmland pressure and food security, this paper uses the farmland pressure index model proposed by Professor Cai Yunlong for reference to calculate the farmland pressure index of 15 counties (districts and cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) Mianyang (Yangyang) region from 2000 to 2014. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From the perspective of time series, from 2000 to 2014, the cultivated land of 15 counties (districts, cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) region was cultivated. By the end of 2014, seven counties (districts and cities) with the most obvious cultivated land pressure were Fucheng (K = 3.7542) Beichuan (K = 2.3237) Peiyang (K = 1.3687) Pingwu (K = 1.3078) Jiangyou (K = 1.3048). In terms of the change rate of cultivated land pressure index, Fucheng District (138.14%) Beichuan County (133.37%) Pingwu County (50.30%) Peiyang District (41.44%) Youxian District (34.28%) Jiangyou City (31.72%) Shifang City (27.66%); in eight counties (districts, cities) with no significant cultivated land pressure index, Fucheng District (138.14%) Beichuan County (50.30%) Pingwu County (41.44%) Youxian District (34.28%) Jiangyou City (31.72%) Shifang City (27.66%). The change rate of cultivated land pressure index in county is 42.32%, which is much higher than that in other seven counties where the pressure of cultivated land is not obvious. This shows that the change rate of cultivated land pressure is inconsistent with the size of cultivated land pressure. (2) From the perspective of spatial differentiation, the evolution process of cultivated land pressure index in 15 counties (districts, cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) region from 2000 to 2014 is generally county. The pressure of cultivated land in the central city and the northwest counties is more obvious. Among them, the area with higher pressure of cultivated land mainly distributes in the central area of Zhuyang, Fucheng and its northern Beichuan County, Pingwu County, Jiangyou City. Among them, 3 counties (districts and cities) with the largest change rate were Youxian (14.79%), Shifang (13.31%) and Anxian (12.04%); 27% of counties (districts and cities) were medium-speed change type; there was no medium-high-speed change type; only 13% of counties (districts and cities) were rapid change type. The number of slow change types and slow change types increased from 60% to 67%, and the number of new Jiangyou City and Luojiang County increased from 60% to 67%. There was no medium-high speed change type; the rapid change type area remained unchanged. (3) From the track of gravity center movement, the gravity center of cultivated land pressure in 15 counties (districts and cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) area from 2000 to 2014 existed from southeast to Luojiang County. The trend of the northwest counties moving year by year indicates that the pressure of cultivated land in the northwest counties is more obvious year by year; from the analysis of the longitude and latitude coordinate change distance, the latitude moving distance is greater than the longitude moving distance, which indicates that within the study area, the pressure of cultivated land varies greatly between the counties moving north and south, and the cultivated land pressure varies spatially. (4) According to the analysis of the forecasting results, the cultivated land pressure of 15 counties (districts, cities) will increase obviously in the next 10 years. The cultivated land pressure of hilly areas in southeastern China will decrease. In particular, the change trend can be divided into four types: sharp rise, slow rise, basic stability and basic stability. (5) According to the analysis of cultivated land protection model, based on the comprehensive analysis of forecasting results, and combined with the differences of resource endowment in each county, the pressure of cultivated land in the county is divided into four types, which are "excellent cultivation and stable benefit" model, "re-tapping potential, high warning" model, "optimizing cultivated land productivity" model and "moderate economy". The "Ji" model is expected to provide certain decision-making reference for different counties to formulate specific cultivated land protection policies in the future.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：K901
本文编号：2250108
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is a precious natural resource and plays an important role in ensuring national food security and sustainable and healthy economic and social development. With the continuous promotion of urbanization and industrialization, the limited cultivated land has been occupied by a large number, and the number of cultivated land has decreased sharply. At the end of 2014, 47% of the counties had less than 0.053 hm2 per capita cultivated land. Under the background of "synchronization of the five modernizations" and "food and food, and construction", cultivated land protection and food security have become the land of governments and countries at all levels. On the basis of summing up the previous research results on farmland pressure and food security, this paper uses the farmland pressure index model proposed by Professor Cai Yunlong for reference to calculate the farmland pressure index of 15 counties (districts and cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) Mianyang (Yangyang) region from 2000 to 2014. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From the perspective of time series, from 2000 to 2014, the cultivated land of 15 counties (districts, cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) region was cultivated. By the end of 2014, seven counties (districts and cities) with the most obvious cultivated land pressure were Fucheng (K = 3.7542) Beichuan (K = 2.3237) Peiyang (K = 1.3687) Pingwu (K = 1.3078) Jiangyou (K = 1.3048). In terms of the change rate of cultivated land pressure index, Fucheng District (138.14%) Beichuan County (133.37%) Pingwu County (50.30%) Peiyang District (41.44%) Youxian District (34.28%) Jiangyou City (31.72%) Shifang City (27.66%); in eight counties (districts, cities) with no significant cultivated land pressure index, Fucheng District (138.14%) Beichuan County (50.30%) Pingwu County (41.44%) Youxian District (34.28%) Jiangyou City (31.72%) Shifang City (27.66%). The change rate of cultivated land pressure index in county is 42.32%, which is much higher than that in other seven counties where the pressure of cultivated land is not obvious. This shows that the change rate of cultivated land pressure is inconsistent with the size of cultivated land pressure. (2) From the perspective of spatial differentiation, the evolution process of cultivated land pressure index in 15 counties (districts, cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) region from 2000 to 2014 is generally county. The pressure of cultivated land in the central city and the northwest counties is more obvious. Among them, the area with higher pressure of cultivated land mainly distributes in the central area of Zhuyang, Fucheng and its northern Beichuan County, Pingwu County, Jiangyou City. Among them, 3 counties (districts and cities) with the largest change rate were Youxian (14.79%), Shifang (13.31%) and Anxian (12.04%); 27% of counties (districts and cities) were medium-speed change type; there was no medium-high-speed change type; only 13% of counties (districts and cities) were rapid change type. The number of slow change types and slow change types increased from 60% to 67%, and the number of new Jiangyou City and Luojiang County increased from 60% to 67%. There was no medium-high speed change type; the rapid change type area remained unchanged. (3) From the track of gravity center movement, the gravity center of cultivated land pressure in 15 counties (districts and cities) in Deyang (Yangyang) area from 2000 to 2014 existed from southeast to Luojiang County. The trend of the northwest counties moving year by year indicates that the pressure of cultivated land in the northwest counties is more obvious year by year; from the analysis of the longitude and latitude coordinate change distance, the latitude moving distance is greater than the longitude moving distance, which indicates that within the study area, the pressure of cultivated land varies greatly between the counties moving north and south, and the cultivated land pressure varies spatially. (4) According to the analysis of the forecasting results, the cultivated land pressure of 15 counties (districts, cities) will increase obviously in the next 10 years. The cultivated land pressure of hilly areas in southeastern China will decrease. In particular, the change trend can be divided into four types: sharp rise, slow rise, basic stability and basic stability. (5) According to the analysis of cultivated land protection model, based on the comprehensive analysis of forecasting results, and combined with the differences of resource endowment in each county, the pressure of cultivated land in the county is divided into four types, which are "excellent cultivation and stable benefit" model, "re-tapping potential, high warning" model, "optimizing cultivated land productivity" model and "moderate economy". The "Ji" model is expected to provide certain decision-making reference for different counties to formulate specific cultivated land protection policies in the future.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：K901
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