地缘政治动荡评价与中资银行应对策略

发布时间：2018-01-31 21:38

本文关键词： 地缘政治动荡风险等级评价体系层次分析法中资银行　出处：《金融论坛》2014年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文应用层次分析法建立地缘政治动荡评价体系,从政治冲击、经济冲击和金融冲击三个维度衡量地缘政治动荡的风险等级。其中,政治冲击的等级取决于政治脆弱性、地缘政治动荡所属长期冲突的级别、地缘政治动荡的危险性和重要性;经济冲击的等级取决于经济脆弱度、经济影响力、资源影响力和经济冲击传染性;金融冲击的等级取决于金融脆弱度、市场影响力、金融冲击传染性以及动荡带来的市场恐慌度。本文还以2013年泰国政治动荡为例,介绍研究框架的实际应用,并从集团、境外机构和相关业务部门三个层面提出中资银行应对不同风险等级地缘政治动荡的框架性策略。
[Abstract]:This paper applies AHP to establish the evaluation system of geopolitical turbulence, which measures the risk level of geopolitical turbulence from three dimensions: political shock, economic shock and financial shock. The rank of political shock depends on the political fragility, the level of long-term conflict of geopolitical instability, the danger and importance of geopolitical instability; The grade of economic shock depends on the degree of economic vulnerability, economic influence, resource influence and contagion of economic shock; The grade of financial shock depends on the degree of financial vulnerability, market influence, contagion of financial shock and the degree of market panic caused by turbulence. This paper also takes the political turmoil in Thailand in 2013 as an example. This paper introduces the practical application of the research framework, and puts forward the framework strategies for Chinese banks to deal with geopolitical instability with different risk levels from three aspects: group, overseas institutions and relevant business departments.
【作者单位】：中国工商银行城市金融研究所;
【分类号】：F832.3;D81
【正文快照】： 经过改革开放后数十年的摸索,中资商业银行的国际化发展已经从以“广布局、打基础”为核心的先期发展阶段逐步进入以“强经营、创业绩”为重点的纵深发展阶段。伴随着阶段转变,中资银行国际化发展需要面对的主要政治风险不再是布局时的准入门槛风险,而表现为地缘政治动荡对跨

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