大国标准的量化研究

发布时间：2018-02-12 20:08

本文关键词： 大国国家实力量化研究　出处：《外交学院》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着纪录片“大国崛起”的热播，学术界和社会民众对大国的和大国兴衰历史的研究都表示出了广泛的兴趣和关注，关于中国的大国之路研究著作也随之大量增加。实际上，大国和大国关系一直是外交学领域内一个重要的研究方向，大国政治也是国际社会的重要组成部分。而对大国的研究，始于对大国的界定概念和标准判断。本文试图就怎样的国家实力才能算得上大国这一具体的问题作出回答，用科学量化的方法寻找大国判断的客观标准。本文首先从大国的概念界定入手，将“大国”与“强国”、“霸权国家”等相近概念作出区分。在此基础上，将现有的关于大国标准的理论做简单梳理，总结出关于大国权力来源的三种思路，即“资源”、“关系”和“结果”思路。同时，对历史上的几个公认的大国经验性的分析和总结，得出不同时期的大国权力来源，为之后国家的量化公式推导奠定基础。在进行了理论分析和历史研究之后，本文就国家的实力量化和大国的判断标准进行公式推导。在借鉴了“克莱因公式”和相关的量化方法之后，，形成本文的国力量化公式：P_P=(C+E+M)*(G+D+I)。C为“基本实体”，E为“经济实力”，M为“军事力量”，这三者代表了国家力量的硬实力方面。而软实力则从“国内政治能力”（G），“外交能力”（D）和“国际组织参与程度”（I）三方面来衡量。在进行赋值计算之后，本文提出大国的标准为公式计算总分的15%，即大国公式计算得分450以上的就是本文所定义的大国。在本文的结论部分，本文就当今世界上几个国家的国力进行了计算，得出的结果为：现在只有美国一个国家是可以称为“大国”的，其他的国家如英国、法国、德国、日本、印度的综合国力值都没有达到大国标准。中国也没超过大国标准，但距离标准值已十分接近。
[Abstract]:With the popularity of the documentary "the rise of the Great Power," the academic community and the public have shown extensive interest and concern in the study of the history of the rise and fall of the great powers, and there has been a huge increase in the number of works on the road to great power in China. The relationship between great powers and great powers has always been an important research direction in the field of diplomacy, and great power politics is also an important part of the international community. This paper attempts to answer the specific question of what kind of national strength can be considered as a great power, and to find the objective criterion of great power judgment by scientific quantification method. This paper begins with the definition of great power, differentiates the similar concepts such as "great power" and "power" and "hegemonic power". On this basis, it simply sorts out the existing theories about the criterion of great power. This paper summarizes three ideas about the sources of great powers' power, that is, "resources", "relations" and "results". At the same time, through the analysis and summary of several recognized experiences of great powers in history, the sources of great power power in different periods are obtained. It lays a foundation for the derivation of the national quantification formula. After the theoretical analysis and historical research, this paper deduces the formula for the quantification of national strength and the judgment standard of the great powers. To form the quantitative formula of national strength in this paper, P: P / T / C / E / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C / C, which represent the hard power of the national power, while. Capacity "D" and "degree of participation of international organizations" are measured. This paper puts forward that the standard of big country is 15 percent of the total score of the formula, that is, the big country whose score is over 450 is the big country as defined in this paper. In the conclusion of this paper, the national strength of several countries in the world is calculated in this paper. The results are as follows: at present, only one country in the United States can be called a "big country." other countries, such as Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and India, have failed to meet the overall national power standards. China has not exceeded the standard of a big country, either. But the standard value is very close.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D80

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