“威胁制衡”：美日同盟与中国崛起

发布时间：2018-02-17 03:23

本文关键词： “威胁制衡” 美日同盟中国崛起　出处：《山东大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：后冷战时代,中美和中日之间交往关系不断深化,而美日同盟却不断强化,将日益崛起的中国视作“威胁”并加以制衡。在众多同盟理论中,斯蒂芬·沃尔特的“威胁制衡理论”对解释美日同盟现状最有说服力。同盟形成并不是仅仅源于“权力失衡”,而是对于外部威胁的反应,国家结成同盟是为了制衡威胁。威胁的水平受综合实力、地缘毗邻性、进攻实力和进攻意图影响。冷战结束后美日同盟调整与中国快速发展存在紧密的联系。失去苏联这一“共同目标”后,美日两国将发展势头良好的中国视为同盟的“巨大威胁”,不断强化同盟以制衡中国。但是,美日同盟对于“中国威胁”的判断是不准确的：中国国力虽然在上升,但与美日相比,仍然相差悬殊,在综合实力和军事进攻能力上构不成对美日的威胁；地缘因素不能一维决定邻国具有“威胁性”；中国的崛起意图是和平与发展,加深与别国的相互联系与交往,而不是挑起冲突、谋求地区甚至世界霸主地位,粗暴的侵犯他国利益。在国际体系发展到相互依存和利益依赖的今天,国家利益的紧密联系将增加国家发动挑战的成本,降低国家挑战的欲望与需求,在一定程度上缓冲国家崛起带来的“威胁”与进攻意图,与挑战相反,加强国家间相互交往更符合国家利益的需要。基于国际体系角度考察,中国与他国政治上互相尊重、友好合作,利益上交往密切、相互依赖,积极参加并维护国际制度,文化上和谐交流。因此,积极融入国际体系和深化与美日交往的中国不是美日同盟的“威胁”。中国崛起并不构成对美日同盟的挑战。美日同盟不断强化并虚构“中国威胁”有着深层面的战略考虑,美日两国一味采取对抗并制衡中国发展的行为,会严重危害东亚安全与和平,最终带来各方利益受损的悲惨结局。中国崛起不可避免对国际体系产生一定冲击,美日等国会表现出一定的不适应性,并且在短期内继续强化同盟以防范中国。中国应认清美日同盟发展趋势并努力化解：在准确国际社会定位的基础上,坚持用和平的发展事实消除他国“国强必霸”的忧虑,并且继续深化与美日交往、构建相互信任的中美日关系,争取为中国和平崛起创造有利的地区及国际环境。
[Abstract]:In the post-Cold War era, the relationship between the United States and China and Japan has deepened, while the US-Japan alliance has been strengthened, treating the rising China as a "threat" and balancing it. Stephen Walter's theory of threat checks and balances is the most persuasive way to explain the current situation of the US-Japan alliance, which was formed not just from a "power imbalance," but from a reaction to external threats. Countries form alliances to counterbalance threats, the level of which is influenced by comprehensive strength, geographical proximity, offensive power, and intent. After the end of the Cold War, the adjustment of the US-Japan alliance was closely related to China's rapid development. After the loss of the "common goal" of the Soviet Union, The United States and Japan regard China, which is developing well, as a "great threat" to the alliance and constantly strengthen the alliance to counterbalance China. However, the US-Japan alliance's judgment on the "China threat" is inaccurate: China's national strength is on the rise. However, compared with the United States and Japan, there is still a great disparity between the United States and Japan. It does not constitute a threat to the United States and Japan in terms of its comprehensive strength and military offensive capability; the geographical factors cannot one-dimensional determine the "threat" of neighboring countries; and China's intention of rising up is peace and development. Instead of provoking conflicts, seeking regional and even world hegemony, and grossly violating the interests of other countries, we should deepen our mutual ties and exchanges with other countries. At a time when the international system has developed into interdependence and interest dependence, the close link of national interests will increase the cost of national challenges and reduce their desires and needs, To a certain extent, to buffer the "threat" and offensive intention brought about by the rise of a country, contrary to the challenge, it is more in line with the national interests to strengthen mutual exchanges between countries. From the perspective of the international system, China and other countries have political respect for each other. Friendly cooperation, close and interdependent exchanges in interests, active participation in and maintenance of international systems, and harmonious cultural exchanges. Therefore, China, which actively integrates into the international system and deepens exchanges with the United States and Japan, is not a "threat" of the US-Japan alliance. The rise of China does not pose a challenge to the US-Japan alliance, which is constantly strengthening and fabricating the "China threat" with deep strategic considerations, and the United States and Japan are blindly engaged in acts of confrontation and checks and balances on China's development. Will seriously endanger the security and peace in East Asia, and ultimately bring about a tragic outcome of the damage to the interests of all parties. The rise of China inevitably has a certain impact on the international system, and the United States and Japan and other countries have shown certain inadaptability. China should clearly recognize the development trend of the US-Japan alliance and strive to resolve it: on the basis of accurate international social positioning, China should persist in using the facts of peaceful development to remove the worries of other countries that "a strong country will become a hegemonic power". And continue to deepen exchanges with the United States and Japan, build trust between China and Japan, and strive to create a favorable regional and international environment for the peaceful rise of China.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D815;D820

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