特朗普政府对华政策基点及其形态

发布时间：2018-03-03 14:39

本文选题：特朗普　切入点：对华政策　出处：《学术探索》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：由于特朗普在竞选期间对华言辞激烈,他成为总统后的对华政策让人疑虑重重。事实上,在当前中美关系具备全球意义的现实下,美国对华政策是有着坚实的政策基点的。特朗普政府的对华政策至少有三个基点:对华崛起忧虑心态(中美关系就像"零和游戏"里的"权力转移"一样,崛起大国一定想取代守成大国,最终必然导致"大国政治悲剧")、对华合作共赢原则(以建设性方式管控分歧,推动中美关系在新起点更大发展)和对华实用主义逻辑(满足民粹要求的成本节约之上的尽快获益是首要意图或最大特征,但保守主义、民粹主义、自由主义各有位置)。三大政策基点相互间形成了三组六个基点形态,意味着美国对华政策的不同组合,但美国最有可能选择以实用主义正负效能为起点的两个形态,它们实则是以"合作+规设"为特征的对华政策。在此情形下,中国应抓住政策基点形态中的操纵空间和特朗普执政初期里的中美关系发展机遇,达成必要谅解妥协,扩大合作共赢面,尽最大努力避免后期中美关系的可能震荡。
[Abstract]:Trump's China policy after becoming president is fraught with misgivings because of his fierce rhetoric toward China during the election campaign. In fact, under the current realities of global significance in Sino-US relations, The US policy toward China has a solid policy base. The Trump administration's China policy has at least three basic points: a state of mind about the rise of China. (Sino-US relations are like the "power transfer" in the zero-sum game. The rising powers must want to replace the conservative powers, which will inevitably lead to the "political tragedy of the great powers" and the principle of win-win cooperation with China (managing differences in a constructive way). Pushing China-US relations to grow further from a new starting point and pragmatism logic toward China (quick gain over cost savings to meet populist demands is the primary intention or the greatest characteristic, but conservatism, populism, Liberalism has its own position. The three major policy bases have formed three groups and six basis points among each other, which means different combinations of US policies towards China. However, the United States is most likely to choose the two forms starting with positive and negative effectiveness of pragmatism. In fact, they are China policies characterized by "cooperation and regulation." under such circumstances, China should seize the manipulation space in the basic point form of the policy and the opportunities for the development of Sino-US relations in the early years of Trump's administration, and reach the necessary understandings and compromises. Expand the win-win cooperation and do our best to avoid the possible shock in the later stage of Sino-American relations.
【作者单位】：西南科技大学政治学研究院;
【基金】：2015年国家社科青年基金项目(15CGJ012)
【分类号】：D871.2

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