国际政治冲突的贸易破坏与转移效应——基于中日关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 00:15

  本文选题：结构突变检验　切入点：引力模型　出处：《世界经济与政治》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,国际局势正在发生深刻的变化,大国间地缘政治博弈和相互制衡使国际局势的不稳定、不确定因素明显增加,区域性冲突与摩擦时有发生。在全球化趋势下,国际政治冲突如何影响国际经济正成为一个热点问题,受到广泛关注,相关文献不断涌现,但深入的实证分析并不多见。作者基于2000—2015年中日政治关系与经贸往来的月度数据,利用计量经济学中的结构突变检验与国际贸易中的引力模型,对国际政治冲突的贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应进行了实证研究。实证结果表明:第一,中日政治冲突对中日贸易产生了破坏效应,冲突级别越高,破坏效应越大,但这种破坏效应具有明显的滞后性。第二,中日政治关系紧张还导致中日双边贸易部分向第三方国家转移,具有贸易转移效应,而且对中国的贸易转移效应要明显大于对日本的贸易转移效应。该研究不仅揭示了长期以来"政冷经热"与"政冷经冷"之争的根源,而且可为中国如何应对国际政治冲突提供现实依据。
[Abstract]:Since 21th century, the international situation is undergoing profound changes. Geopolitical games and checks and balances among the major powers have made the international situation unstable, uncertainties have increased significantly, and regional conflicts and frictions have occurred from time to time. How the international political conflict affects the international economy is becoming a hot issue, which has received extensive attention, and related documents have been emerging, but in-depth empirical analysis is rare. The author based on the monthly data on Sino-Japanese political relations and economic and trade exchanges from 2000 to 2015. By using the structural catastrophe test in econometrics and the gravity model in international trade, this paper makes an empirical study on the trade destructive effect and trade transfer effect of international political conflict. The empirical results are as follows: first, The political conflict between China and Japan has a destructive effect on Sino-Japanese trade. The higher the level of conflict, the greater the destructive effect, but this destructive effect is obviously delayed. Second, The tense political relations between China and Japan have also led to the transfer of the part of bilateral trade between China and Japan to third party countries, which has the effect of trade transfer. Moreover, the effect of trade transfer to China is obviously greater than that to Japan. This study not only reveals the root cause of the long controversy between "political cold economy hot" and "political cold economy cold". Moreover, it can provide a realistic basis for China to deal with international political conflicts.
【作者单位】： 中南大学马克思主义学院;南京审计大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“贸易便利化福利效应的微观机理、实证检验与政策设计:基于企业异质性贸易模型的研究”(项目编号:71473082) 中南大学人文社科杰出青年人才(培育)专项资助“国家间经济相互依赖对国际冲突的影响:机制及实证研究”(项目编号:2011RWSK009) 中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目“中国—东盟自由贸易区的国际政治效应”的成果
【分类号】：D822.331.3;F742
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本文编号：1577115