东亚周边国家对中国崛起的反应：中国的机遇与挑战

发布时间：2018-03-12 18:09

本文选题：东亚周边国家反应　切入点：中国崛起　出处：《山东大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,伴随中国经济的快速发展,“中国崛起”日益成为媒体、学界、政界、商圈等等热议的话题。虽然各类关于中国崛起的研究层出不穷,但是关于周边国家对中国崛起反应的研究仍是凤毛麟角。中国崛起是一个系统的研究课题,我们既要关注中国崛起对地区格局的影响,也要探究地区内其他国家对中国崛起的反应。本文选择东亚国家作为周边国家对中国崛起反应的切入点,重点从经济、军事、地区一体化、全球治理、公众舆论认知等多方面进行分析,力求对周边国家的反应有一个客观、全面、深入的认识。东亚国家对中国崛起的相似反应既有经济实用主义的考量,又有各国对自身经济对华高依存度的担忧；既有地区一体化问题上的约束式接触,又有全球治理层面上的利用与遏制；既有军事领域的拒绝主导,又有安全体制上的间接制衡。它们在对中国崛起的不同反应表现为从附势到积极对冲到犹豫对冲再到制衡这样一种从左到右的图谱分布。各国民众对中国崛起的反应更多的是受到传媒、NGO、商会、研究机构等等的影响,虽然日韩印等国民众在近年来受媒体关于地区热点问题、领土争端问题炒作的影响,对中国崛起的负面认知有增加趋势,但是各国民众对中国崛起的认知总体保持正面,都能充分认识到中国崛起对地区稳定繁荣的积极意义。本文认为东亚国家对中国崛起的反应受到理性、认知两大变量的影响。理性变量包括中国与这些国家各层次互动的交易成本以及彼此之间的社会交换程度；认知变量包括它们在看待地区热点问题或者与中国的领土争端时对看待问题的归因方式,还有对中国的威胁感知。由于不同国家在交易成本、社会交换程度、行为归因方式、威胁感知等方面对中国的反应不尽相同,这导致它们对中国崛起的反应各不相同。总体来看,东亚国家对中国崛起的反应体现了一种承认问题,表现为：一、空间承认问题,既有领土主权纠纷,又有地缘经济方面的资源与贸易竞争；二、制度承认的矛盾,在全球层次,它们希望中国崛起能够推动不合理国际秩序的改革,而在地区层面它们不希望看到地区一体化进程被中国崛起所主导；三、身份承认问题,即它们对中国崛起过程中的发展模式、政经文化体制缺乏内在认同。东亚周边国家的反应对中国崛起本身既有机遇,也有挑战。机遇方面是：这些国家公众对华舆论相对正面,而且其公众舆论不易主导各国对中国崛起的政策反应；外交上并未形成遏制中国的共识；地区军备竞赛尚未出现。挑战方面包括：各国对华经济的高依存度出现变异；各国对中国崛起在外交政策上的反应不确定感增强；东亚多国强化彼此之间以及与域外大国的联系,支持美国参与地区安全机制,对此中国要警惕各国的“格列佛式束缚”。二战后,美国的全球崛起受到自由民主理念、反对极权主义理念、以及全球化理念的支撑,它所建立的全球制度霸权更是以这三大理念为灵魂。面对刚刚走上崛起之路的中国,东亚周边各国对中国崛起的反应尚处于早期阶段,它们对中国崛起充满了期许与不确定性。当今时代,全球化持续向纵深发展,人类文明日益凸出人本理念。因此,中国应抓住时代发展的脉搏,对周边各国力塑“和谐”价值理念,将这一理念融入与东亚周边各国的各领域各层次互动当中,推动彼此信任,增进它们对中国崛起的“承认”。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of Chinese economy, "China rise" has become the media, academia, politics, business and so on a hot topic. Although all kinds of research on China rise but on the neighboring countries to emerge in an endless stream, the rise of the study is China reactions are rare. Chinese rise is a research topic of our system. Must pay attention to China rising influence on the regional pattern, but also to explore other countries in the region to rise Chinese reaction. This paper selected East Asian countries as the starting point of the rise of the neighboring countries of China reaction, mainly from the economic, military, regional integration, global governance, public cognition and other aspects of analysis, to the neighboring countries the reaction has an objective, comprehensive, in-depth understanding of East Asian countries. The rise of Chinese similar responses to both economic pragmatism considerations, and countries in their economic China's high dependence on concerns; both restriction of contact on the issues of regional integration, and use and curb global governance on; both military refused led, and indirect balance safety system. In response to the performance of their China rise from positive to hedge potential of hesitation to hedge balance such a map from left to right. The distribution of people around the world China rise reaction more by the media, NGO, chamber of Commerce, influence research institutions and so on, although the Indian people in Japan and South Korea in recent years by the media about the regional hot spots, influence of speculation in territorial disputes, have increased the rise of the trend of the negative cognitive China, but people around the world remain positive on the rise of the overall cognitive China, can fully realize the China rise of positive significance to regional stability and prosperity.
This paper argues that East Asia countries are on the rise of rational China reaction, two cognitive variables. The variables include rational between transaction cost and Chinese these countries at all levels of interaction and mutual social exchange degree; cognitive variables include them in view of regional hot issues or territorial disputes with the China of attributional style and view the problem. The China threat perception. Because of different countries in the transaction cost, social exchange, behavior attribution, perceived threat and other aspects of the China reaction is not the same, which causes them to rise China reaction varies. Overall, the East Asian countries on the rise of the China reaction reflects a recognition, performance a space, acknowledging the problem, both have territorial disputes, and geo economic aspects of the resources and trade competition; two, the contradiction between the system of recognition, on a global level Second, they hope China rise can push the reform of the irrational international order, and at the regional level they don't want to see the integration of the area is dominated by the rise of Chinese; three, the identity of China that they acknowledge the problem, rise the development pattern of the political and cultural system, the lack of internal identity.
East Asian countries in response to the rise of China itself both opportunities and challenges. There are opportunities in these countries is relatively positive public opinion on China, but it is not easy to public opinion leading countries of the policy response to the rise of China; diplomacy has not formed the containment China consensus; an arms race in the region has not yet appeared. The challenges include: countries China's high economic dependence on variation; countries in response to Chinese rise in foreign policy uncertainty enhancement; many countries in East Asia and strengthen the contact with each other and with the outside powers, in support of the United States to participate in the regional security mechanism, this China to alert countries "Gulliver type bound".
After World War II, the United States by the global rise of the concept of freedom and democracy, oppose the concept of totalitarianism, and support the idea of globalization, it is a global system of hegemony is based on three ideas: the face of the soul. Just on the road to the rise of the China, East Asian countries are in the early stages of China's rise in the reaction. The China rise is full of expectations and uncertainty. Nowadays, continued to develop in depth of globalization, the concept of human civilization is becoming increasingly prominent. Therefore, Chinese should seize the pulse of the times, the neighboring countries force plastic "harmony" of value concept, this concept into various levels and East Asian countries interaction, promote mutual trust, enhance their China on the rise of "recognition".

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D820

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