第二次朝核危机后的韩中两国对朝政策比较研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 14:36

本文选题：第二次朝核危机后　切入点：对朝政策　出处：《外交学院》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：韩中两国于1992年建交后,由朝鲜战争时期起开始的敌对关系逐步发展为友好合作关系。建交当时,韩中两国之间在政治、文化、意识形态等方面还存在一些差异,韩中关系发展初期主要集中在经济方面。在韩国,金大中和卢武铉总统上台后采取对朝友好政策——“阳光政策”、“和平繁荣政策”。从那时起,韩中关系取得了进一步发展。 2002年第二次朝核危机爆发时,正值韩国卢武铉政府上台时期。韩国政府虽然坚持对朝友好政策,但是这次朝核危机使韩国民众感到对朝鲜的不信任。因此,韩国政府在对朝政策上面临不少的困难,受到了严厉的批评。中国彼时也恰逢新领导人胡锦涛主席上任之初。中国政府在这次朝核危机中采取了积极介入的政策,而且建立了“朝核六方会谈”机制并在会谈进程中一直发挥主导和积极的斡旋作用。中朝关系也逐渐恢复了以往的传统友好关系,包括领导层的交流在内的两国政府之间和党际交流都开始活跃了。 2008年韩国李明博总统上台后,韩中关系发生了变化。虽然韩中两国之间建立了“战略合作伙伴关系”,但是新任韩国政府更重视恢复韩美同盟关系。中国政府也重视恢复中朝传统友好关系。韩中关系的发展面临严重的挑战。笔者认为,2010年发生的“天安舰沉没事件”和“延坪岛炮击事件”表明韩中两国仍需要在对朝政策上的合作与相互理解。对朝鲜来说,现在是关键的时刻。朝鲜领导人金正日刚刚过了70周岁,他的接班人金正恩还没掌握稳定的接班基础。韩中两国对朝鲜都有着特殊的战略和安全利益。对韩国来说,韩朝双方是有着同样的语言、文化和历史的同一个民族,是要统一的对象。对中国来说,中朝双方都是社会主义国家、朝鲜战争中的盟友,在《中朝友好合作互助条约》上有着军事援助义务的特殊关系。还有,韩中两国都与朝鲜接壤。如果朝鲜发生体制崩溃等巨变的话,韩中两国都会受到的巨大的影响。因此,韩中两国的对朝政策合作很大程度上确实是必要的。但是,韩中两国都有各自的战略和安全利益。尤其是韩中两国在对朝政策和关系上有着不同的战略利益考量。笔者认为,韩中两国在对朝政策上合作展望并不太乐观。韩中两国对朝鲜的认识、对朝核问题的看法、对朝政策的根本性质、对美国因素的作用的看法都有很大不同。而且,韩中两国之间还存在着中国重视恢复中朝传统友好关系、韩国重视恢复韩美同盟关系、两国间的感情认同和观点分歧等障碍因素。本文主要运用比较分析方法进行研究,而辅以层次分析法和统计分析法等。本文将韩中两国的对朝政策研究范围限于第二次朝核危机以后。第二次朝核危机对韩中两国的影响是什么?韩中两国的对朝政策是什么?有什么特点?哪些是影响到两国对朝政策的决定性因素?韩中两国对朝政策的未来如何?韩中两国在对朝政策上能否合作?如果两国未来合作可能性不大的话,其原因是什么?韩中两国在对朝政策上为什么一定要合作?如何促进韩中两国在对朝政策上的合作? 笔者将在本文中对这些问题进行研究并提供一些有益的参考意见。首先对第二次朝核危机爆发及其对韩中两国的影响进行分析。接下来对韩中两国的对朝政策内容、决定因素和走向进行分析。然后,对韩中两国的对朝政策进行比较分析。通过比较分析,本研究最后展望韩中两国对朝政策的合作前景。笔者得出的结论是:韩中两国在对朝政策上合作前景并不乐观。但是,为了两国共同的战略利益和友好合作关系的持续发展,唯有进行相互理解与合作才是理性而实现的选择。
[Abstract]:The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1992 after the hostile relations began from the Korean War on the gradual development of friendly and cooperative relations. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Korea and China at that time, in politics, culture, ideology, etc. there are some differences in the early development of relations between South Korea and mainly concentrated in the economy. In South Korea, Jin Dazhonghe after President Roh Moo-hyun took office to take the friendly policy of "sunshine policy", "policy of peace and prosperity". Since then, bilateral relations have made further development.
In 2002 second North Korean nuclear crisis, when South Korea Roh Moo-hyun administration period. Although the South Korean government will stick to the policy of friendship, but the nuclear crisis of North Korea to South Korea people feel distrust of North Korea. Therefore, the South Korean government policy toward the faced many difficulties, was severely criticized. Then China also coincides with the new leader President Hu Jintao took office at the beginning of Chinese. The government take active intervention policy in the North Korean nuclear crisis, and established the "six party talks" mechanism and has always played a leading role and actively mediate in the process of the talks. China DPRK relations also gradually restored the traditional friendly relations in the past, including leadership, communication between the two governments and inter party exchanges have begun active.
South Korea in 2008 after President Lee Myung-bak took office, changed Korean relations. Although the establishment of a "strategic partnership" between South Korea and China, but the New South Korean government attached more importance to restore the ROK-US alliance. China government also attaches great importance to restore the traditional friendly relations between China and North Korea. South Korea relations development is facing serious challenges. The author thinks that happened in 2010 "the sinking of the Cheonan incident" and "the shelling of Yeonpyeong island" that the two countries still need policy toward cooperation and mutual understanding.
For North Korea, now is a critical moment. The North Korean leader Kim Jong-il after just 70 years of age, his successor Kim Jeong-eun also did not have a stable succession basis. South Korea and China have a special strategic and security interests in North Korea. South Korea, both north and South Korea are in the same language, culture and history of the same a nation, is the object to be unified. Chinese on both sides, is a socialist country, the Korean war ally in the "China DPRK friendly cooperation and mutual assistance treaty > has a special relationship between military assistance obligations. Also, the two countries are on the border with North Korea. If North Korea collapse system changes, South Korea the two countries will have a huge impact. Therefore, cooperation policy toward ROK largely is really necessary.
However, the two countries have their own strategic and security interests. Especially in South Korea and China have different strategic interests and considerations of policy toward the relationship. The author believes that the two countries in the prospect of cooperation on North Korea policy is not optimistic. The two countries of North Korea on the Korean nuclear issue, the fundamental nature of the in the policy, to the United States factors are very different. Moreover, the two countries also exist between the Chinese attention to restore the traditional friendly relations between China and the DPRK, South Korea attaches great importance to restore the ROK-US alliance between the two factors, emotion recognition and view differences and other obstacles.
This paper mainly uses comparative analysis methods, and combined with AHP method and statistical analysis method. The two countries on the scope of the study is limited to second policy toward the North Korea nuclear crisis. What is the impact of the second nuclear crisis in South Korea and China's policy toward ROK? What is it? What are the characteristics of what is? The two decisive factors affect policy toward ROK? How policy toward the future? ROK in cooperation on whether North Korea policy? If there is little possibility of the cooperation, what is the reason? Han China in policy toward why cooperation? How to promote the two countries in the policy toward the cooperation?
The author in this paper studies these problems and provide some useful reference. The first of the second North Korean nuclear crisis broke out and its influence on South Korea and China are analyzed. Next to South Korea and China's policy toward the content, determinants and trend analysis. Then, the two countries carry on comparative analysis to the policy toward the DPRK. Through the comparative analysis, this research finally prospects the prospects for bilateral cooperation policy toward Korea. The conclusion is that: the two countries in the policy toward cooperation is not optimistic about the prospects. However, in order to continue to develop strategic interests of the two countries mutual relations and friendly cooperation, only mutual understanding and cooperation is the rational choice and implementation.

【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.2

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