乌克兰危机背后的大国博弈及其影响

发布时间：2018-04-11 06:10

本文选题：乌克兰 + 俄罗斯　；参考：《燕山大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：2013年末,由于亚努科维奇拒绝与欧盟签署联系国协定引发的乌克兰危机,至今已持续一年零十个月。目前,在危机中,直接对抗的双方是波罗申科政府与东部分离武装,背后则表现为俄罗斯与美欧的地缘政治博弈。危机爆发有着深刻的国内背景,东西部的分裂状态、政治的失衡、经济的长期停滞不前,综合作用导致了危机的爆发。而大国的介入则使得危机不断升级、拖而不决,围绕乌克兰前景的地缘政治对抗已经走向长期化,制裁与反制裁相互拉锯。乌克兰无疑是此次危机最大的输家,国家处于事实上的分裂状态、政局不稳、社会失序、经济濒临破产,发展前景堪忧。但是危机的发展已经超出了乌克兰政府所能掌控的范围,局势的发展将取决于如何平衡俄与美欧在乌克兰的战略利益。由于乌克兰涉及到俄罗斯的核心利益,普金政府不会妥协和退让,而欧盟与美国在制裁俄态度和力度上的差别或许会成为危机的突破口。对乌克兰而言,最合理的立场应是在俄罗斯与西方国家之间保持中立,但乌克兰当局的政策显然是亲美欧而疏俄,这将会迫使普京不惜一切代价采取各种手段维护其在乌克兰的利益。乌克兰危机不仅改变着乌克兰国家的命运,而且改变了欧洲大陆的地缘安全环境,牵动着地区局势和国际全局。
[Abstract]:In late 2013, the crisis in Ukraine, triggered by Yanukovych's refusal to sign an agreement with the European Union, has lasted for a year and ten months.At present, in the crisis, the direct confrontation is between Poroshenko government and the eastern separatist armed forces, behind the geopolitical game between Russia and the United States and Europe.The outbreak of the crisis has a profound domestic background, the divided state of the east and the west, the political imbalance, the long-term stagnation of the economy, and the comprehensive role that led to the outbreak of the crisis.The intervention of big powers has escalated the crisis, dragged on, the geopolitical confrontation over the prospect of Ukraine has become a long-term, sanctions and anti-sanctions each other.Ukraine is no doubt the biggest loser of the crisis. The country is de facto divided, political instability, social disorder, an economy on the verge of bankruptcy, and a worrying future.But the development of the crisis is beyond the control of the Ukrainian government and will depend on how to balance the strategic interests of Russia and the United States and Europe in Ukraine.Since Ukraine has a core interest in Russia, the Putin administration will not compromise or back down, and the differences between the EU and the United States in terms of attitudes and intensity of sanctions against Russia may be a breakthrough in the crisis.For Ukraine, the most reasonable position should be to remain neutral between Russia and the West, but the policy of the Ukrainian authorities is obviously pro-American and not pro-European.That would force Mr Putin to do whatever it takes to defend his interests in Ukraine.The crisis in Ukraine not only changes the destiny of Ukraine, but also changes the geo-security environment of the European continent and affects the regional situation and the international situation.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D815

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