全球治理中“指标权力”的选择性失效——基于援助评级指标的因果推论

发布时间：2018-04-18 12:00

本文选题：指标权力 + 全球治理　；参考：《世界经济与政治》2017年11期

【摘要】：自20世纪90年代以来,国际上各种复合型评估指标体系急速涌现。它们涉及全球治理的各个方面,对政府及其他行为体在全球治理中的政策效果和行为表现进行评估和评级。全球治理指标在数量上快速增长、在重要性上日益凸显,形成了国际关系中区别于传统权力的新型"指标权力",受到学界和政策界的广泛重视,甚至被誉为开启了"循证型全球治理"的新范式。现有研究将指标权力理解为由信息、技术和知识带来的客观影响力,致力于追踪它在全球治理各个领域留下的权力印记,但却忽视了谨慎区分指标本身的新型权力和指标背后的传统权力,有可能夸大和理想化指标权力在全球治理中的作用。作者以世界银行独立评估小组多年来持续发布的援助效果评级为案例,研究其对世界银行援助分配的因果效应。传统统计检验和计量模型分析的结果显示,评级与决策具有密切而稳定的关系。然而,如果运用倾向性得分匹配法对独立评估小组评级的偏向性进行纠正,则会发现这种关系并不等同于指标权力的影响,而是指标背后的权力与政策考虑以前者为载体影响了世行的援助决策。作者运用因果推论方法在实证上严格区分了指标权力和指标背后的权力,旨在以世行独立评估小组的外援评估和世行的外援决策之间的因果效应推论来管窥指标权力的选择性失效现象和特定主体成功逃脱指标权力的选择机制,推动和深化对全球治理中的指标权力的理解。
[Abstract]:Since the 90's of the 20th century, a variety of complex evaluation index systems have emerged rapidly.They cover all aspects of global governance and assess and rate the policy effectiveness and behavioural performance of governments and other actors in global governance.The index of global governance has been increasing rapidly in quantity and becoming more and more important. It has formed a new type of "indicator power" in international relations, which is different from traditional power, and has received extensive attention from academic circles and policy circles.It has even been hailed as the opening of a new paradigm of evidence-based global governance.Existing research has understood indicator power as the objective impact of information, technology and knowledge, and has sought to track the imprint of power that it has left in all areas of global governance.However, it ignores the new power of carefully distinguishing the index itself and the traditional power behind the index, which may exaggerate and idealize the role of index power in global governance.The author studies the causal effects of the World Bank's aid allocation based on the aid effectiveness ratings issued by the World Bank's independent assessment team for many years.The results of traditional statistical test and econometric model analysis show that rating has a close and stable relationship with decision-making.However, if the bias of the Independent Assessment Panel rating is corrected by using the tendentiousness score matching method, it is found that this relationship is not equal to the impact of the indicator power.It is the power and policy considerations behind the indicators that influence the World Bank's aid decisions.By using causality inference, the author strictly distinguishes between index power and the power behind the index.The purpose of this paper is to speculate on the selective invalidation of index power and the mechanism of selective escape of target power by the causality inference between the foreign aid assessment of the independent assessment team of the World Bank and the foreign aid decision of the Bank.Promote and deepen the understanding of indicator power in global governance.
【作者单位】：清华大学国际关系研究院;
【分类号】：D815

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