特朗普政府对朝鲜的强制外交

发布时间：2018-04-19 02:17

本文选题：朝鲜核扩散 + 强制外交　；参考：《世界经济与政治》2017年06期

【摘要】：冷战结束以来,美国的对朝政策因为朝鲜核扩散性质的恶化而具备了强制外交的各项基本特点,奥巴马政府的"战略耐心"政策就是一项典型的强制外交政策。特朗普政府上台数月以来,强调美国对朝政策的重大调整,宣告"战略耐心"已经结束,其朝核政策的明显变化在于:一是将解决朝核问题列为美国亚太外交与安全政策的优先事项;二是在对朝施压和威慑的力度、范围和国际动员的投入上明显增强。特朗普对朝政策转变,也适逢国际社会对朝鲜大规模杀伤性武器计划进展所产生的威胁认知不断上升之时。中美首脑"海湖庄园会"开始重建东亚在朝核问题上的大国合作进程,中美首脑共识正在为打破朝核僵局发挥重要作用。作者从强制外交理论的提出和发展的视角,介绍和分析了强制外交在解决核不扩散问题上的学术和政策主张,比较和探讨了特朗普政府与奥巴马政府在朝核政策上所发生的具体变化和调整。作者认为,特朗普政府的对朝强制外交短期内不会将军事打击列为现实选项,对朝鲜的对策更接近于"战略强制"的内涵,以谋求全面遏制朝鲜的核武器与导弹开发能力。
[Abstract]:Since the end of the Cold War, the United States' policy towards North Korea has possessed the basic characteristics of coercive diplomacy because of the deterioration of the nature of North Korea's nuclear proliferation. The Obama administration's "strategic patience" policy is a typical coercive foreign policy.In the months since the Trump administration took office, it has stressed the major adjustment of US policy towards North Korea and declared that "strategic patience" has come to an end.The obvious changes in its North Korean nuclear policy are as follows: first, it makes the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue a priority of the US Asia-Pacific foreign and security policy, and second, it significantly strengthens the intensity, scope and international mobilization of pressure and deterrence on the DPRK.Trump's shift to North Korea comes at a time of rising international awareness of the threat posed by progress in North Korea's weapons of mass destruction programme.The China-US summit will begin to rebuild the process of cooperation between East Asian powers on the North Korean nuclear issue, and the China-US summit consensus is playing an important role in breaking the deadlock over the North Korean nuclear issue.From the point of view of the theory and development of coercive diplomacy, the author introduces and analyzes the academic and policy propositions of coercive diplomacy in solving the nuclear non-proliferation problem.This paper compares and discusses the specific changes and adjustments in the North Korean nuclear policy between the Trump administration and the Obama administration.The author believes that the Trump administration's coercive diplomacy against North Korea will not include military strikes as a realistic option in the short term, and the response to North Korea is closer to the connotation of "strategic coercion," in an effort to comprehensively curb North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile development capabilities.
【作者单位】：南京大学国际关系研究院;南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心;
【分类号】：D815

【相似文献】