政治风险对我国对外直接投资区位选择的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 06:59

本文选题：对外直接投资 + 政治风险　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自从我国提出“走出去”战略之后,我国企业不断以对外直接投资形式走向国际舞台,并且不断增长。不过由于我国企业对外直接投资起步较晚,不少企业遭遇各种外部风险,导致其损失惨重,其中尤以东道国政治风险的破坏力和影响力最为强大。因此对政治风险的研究与防范具有重要意义。而投资区位选择是企业对外直接投资的第一步,也是非常关键的决策,正确的投资区位选择能有效降低跨国投资的风险。那么,东道国政治风险对我国对外直接投资区位选择究竟产生何种影响,目前国内就这个问题的研究有待进一步完善和补充。现有的国内外文献是后续研究的支撑。纵观现有文献资料发现,大部分研究文献都指出,政治风险不单是由政治性因素引起的,其他诸如社会文化等因素同样会引起政治风险的发生,很多学者从政治、经济、社会文化三个维度读政治风险进行分类类。关于政治风险的研究以定性的宏观分析居多,微观的实证研究相对较少,而在已有的实证研究中得出的结果也不一致。而且国外文献大多是基于发达国家跨国企业的角度进行的研究,对我国企业缺乏现实指导意义。本文分析了我国对外直接投资的现状特点及其区位分布,发现我国对外直接投资区位存在一个特殊性,即高度集中于发展中国家。在此特殊国情之下,选取了政治风险的6个构成因素,分别是军事干预政治、民主问责、法律秩序、腐败、政府稳定性以及政府管理质量,将其作为政治风险的替代变量。在已有的研究基础之上提出本文的研究假设,依据已有的引力模型修正本文的计量模型,对选取的51个国家2007-2013年的面板数据使用Eviews9进行实证分析,检验假设。此外,将对华关系作为调节变量,利用SPSS20进行了层次回归分析,探究其是否对政治风险与我国对外直接投资区位选择间的关系产生调节效应。实证结果显示,法制、腐败、政府稳定性和政府管理质量通过了显著性检验。东道国法制程度与我国对外直接投资呈负相关,说明我国对外直接投资偏好于法制程度低的国家(地区)。我国目前处于高速发展阶段,各方面条律都有待完善,企业长期处于这种经营环境之中,更偏向于法制差异较小的国家(地区)实现跨国经营。东道国腐败程度与我国对外直接投资呈负相关,即我国对外直接投资偏好于腐败程度较低的国家(地区)。东道国腐败导致经营环境发生扭曲,导致交易成本增加,投资者对其进行投资的可能性越小。东道国政府稳定性与我国对外直接投资呈负相关,说明我国对外直接投资偏好于政府稳定性差的国家(地区)。东道国的政府稳定性越差,就越希望通过吸引外国直接投资的方式从税收等角度增加财政收入,以此来巩固其政府稳定性。因此,东道国会出台一些吸引外资的政策,而我国企业也正是基于那些优惠政策选择对其进行投资。政府管理质量与我国对外直接投资呈正相关,说明我国对外直接投资偏好于政治管理质量高的国家(地区)。良好的政府管理质量可以在一定程度上保证我国企业在东道国拥有稳定秩序的经营环境,减少经营阻力。对华关系与政治风险交互性的分析结果显示,对华关系不仅是我国对外直接投资区位选择的一个重要影响因素,同时它在一定程度上能削弱或替代政治风险给我国对外直接投资带来的不利影响。对华关系与军事干预政治、法律秩序、民主问责三者的交互项通过了显著性检验。对华关系与军事干预政治、法律秩序存在较强的替代关系,与民主问责存在较强的互补关系。最后根据实证分析结果,分别从政府政策和企业管理两个层面对我国企业政治风险管理提出几点对策:政府方面应该扩大双边投资协定的签订范围,建立良好的对华关系,并且继续推进我国法制程度的完善和优化,创造良好的母国经营环境,同时确定海外投资保险制度模式,加速建立中国海外投资保险法律的进程;企业应该提高风险意识,培养风险管理企业文化,并且企业投资之前要进行风险评估,建立风险预警,还可以采取区位选择策略和分散化投资策略来降低政治风险,减少企业损失。
[Abstract]:Since our country put forward the strategy of "going out", China's enterprises continue to go to the international stage with the form of direct foreign investment, but because of the late start of the foreign direct investment in our enterprises, many enterprises have encountered various external risks, resulting in heavy losses, especially the destructive force and influence of the political risk of the host country. Therefore, the research and prevention of political risk is of great significance. The location choice of investment is the first step of the enterprise's foreign direct investment, and it is also a very critical decision. The correct investment location selection can effectively reduce the risk of transnational investment. At present, the existing domestic and foreign literature is the support of the follow-up research. In the current literature, most of the research documents have pointed out that political risk is not only caused by political factors, but other factors such as social culture are also caused. The political risk is classified by many scholars from the three dimensions of political, economic and social culture. The research on political risk is mainly based on the qualitative macro analysis, and the micro empirical research is relatively small, and the results obtained in the existing empirical studies are not consistent. And most of the foreign literature is based on the developed countries. The research on the point of view of domestic multinational enterprises has no practical guiding significance for Chinese enterprises. This paper analyzes the current situation and location distribution of China's foreign direct investment and finds that the location of our foreign direct investment has a special nature, that is, it is highly concentrated in the developing countries. In this special situation, the 6 political risks are selected. The constituent factors are military intervention politics, democratic accountability, legal order, corruption, government stability and the quality of government management, taking it as a substitute for political risk. Based on the existing research, this paper puts forward the research hypothesis, according to the existing gravitational model, the measurement model of this article is revised, and the selected 51 countries are 2007-2013. The annual panel data use Eviews9 to carry out empirical analysis and test the hypothesis. In addition, the relationship between China and China is taken as an adjustment variable, and a hierarchical regression analysis is carried out using SPSS20 to explore whether it has a regulatory effect on the relationship between political risk and China's foreign direct investment location selection. The quality of government management has passed the significant test. The degree of the host country's legal system is negatively related to our foreign direct investment, indicating that our foreign direct investment is preferred in the country (region) with low degree of legal system. China is at a high speed development stage, and the laws of all aspects are still to be improved, and the enterprises are in this environment for a long time and are more biased towards the law. There is a negative correlation between the degree of corruption of the host country and the foreign direct investment in the host country. That is, our foreign direct investment favours the countries with low corruption. The corruption in the host country leads to the distortion of the operating environment, which leads to the increase of transaction costs and the more possibility of investment by investors. The stability of the host country is negatively related to our foreign direct investment, indicating that our foreign direct investment is preferred in the country (region) with poor government stability. The worse the stability of the host country's government, the more it is to increase the fiscal revenue from the perspective of taxation by attracting foreign direct investment, in order to consolidate its government stability. Therefore, the host country has introduced some policies to attract foreign investment, and the Chinese enterprises are also investing in the preferential policies. The quality of government management is positively related to our foreign direct investment, indicating that our foreign direct investment is preferred to the country (region) with high political management quality. Good government management quality can be found. To a certain extent, we ensure that Chinese enterprises have a stable operating environment in the host country and reduce their operational resistance. The analysis of the interaction between China and China shows that the relationship between China and China is not only an important factor in the location choice of China's foreign direct investment, but also to a certain extent, it can weaken or replace the political risk. The adverse effects on China's foreign direct investment. The interaction between the Chinese relations and military intervention politics, the legal order and the democratic accountability of the three parties passed the significant test. There is a strong substitution relationship between China relations and military intervention politics, the legal order, and the strong complementary relationship with the democratic accountability. Finally, the results are based on the empirical analysis, From the two layers of government policy and enterprise management, we put forward some countermeasures in the management of Chinese enterprises' political risk. The government should expand the scope of the bilateral investment agreements, establish a good relationship with China, and continue to promote the improvement and optimization of the degree of the legal system in China, create a good environment for the home country, and determine the overseas investment. The insurance system mode will accelerate the process of establishing China's overseas investment insurance law; enterprises should raise risk awareness and train risk management enterprise culture. Before enterprise investment, risk assessment should be carried out, risk early warning is set up, and location selection strategy and decentralization investment strategy can be adopted to reduce political risk and reduce enterprise loss.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D822.3;F125

【参考文献】