中国海上运输通道安全脆弱性演化机理论析

发布时间：2018-05-17 12:47

本文选题：海上运输通道 + 安全脆弱性　；参考：《世界经济与政治》2017年11期

【摘要】：中国和全球经济的发展对海上运输通道的依赖程度呈现越来越高的趋势,对包括海上丝绸之路在内的中国海上运输通道安全水平的动态演化机理进行科学分析,以采取针对性较强的措施切实保障海上运输通道的安全畅通,不仅能对中国经济发展起到推动作用,而且也对通道沿线国家及通道使用国家产生积极的影响。但由于海上运输通道系统具有较强的复杂多变性,且其影响因子具有明显的动态特性,对其未来安全状况的预估必须在全面考虑诸多影响因子的基础上,采用动态分析的方法建立分析模型。为此,作者将海上运输通道安全的诸多影响因子内化于"脆弱性"维度之中,对中国海上运输通道在自然环境、社会经济以及人为因素等三个方面所面临的风险进行了有效识别,构建了中国海上运输通道安全脆弱性演化机理分析的系统动力学模型,借助VENSIM计算机仿真平台对该模型进行了仿真分析和系统灵敏度分析,结果表明:优化通道节点布置、持续有效打击海盗活动以及强化水文气象信息预报工作是降低海上运输通道安全脆弱性的有效途径。
[Abstract]:The development of China and the global economy is becoming more and more dependent on the maritime transport channels. The dynamic evolution mechanism of the safety level of China's maritime transport channels, including the Maritime Silk Road, is analyzed scientifically. To take more targeted measures to ensure the safety and flow of maritime transportation channels can not only promote the economic development of China, but also have a positive impact on the countries along the passage and the countries that use the channels. However, due to the strong complex variability of the marine transportation channel system and the obvious dynamic characteristics of its influence factors, the prediction of its future security situation must be based on the overall consideration of many influence factors. The dynamic analysis method is used to establish the analytical model. Therefore, the author internalizes many factors affecting the safety of maritime transport channels in the dimension of "vulnerability". The risks faced by social economy and human factors are effectively identified, and the system dynamics model of the evolution mechanism analysis of the safety vulnerability of China's maritime transport channels is constructed. With the help of VENSIM computer simulation platform, the simulation analysis and system sensitivity analysis of the model are carried out. The results show that the channel node layout is optimized. It is an effective way to reduce the safety vulnerability of maritime transportation channels by continuously and effectively combating piracy and strengthening hydrometeorological information forecasting.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学公共管理与人文学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“基于‘脆弱性—能力’视角的海上运输通道安全动态评价研究”(项目批准号:14BZZ070)的资助
【分类号】：D815.5

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