撤军后的阿富汗:中亚的机遇还是梦魇

发布时间：2018-05-22 13:46

本文选题：国际关系 + 中亚　；参考：《新疆师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2014年03期

【摘要】：到2014年年底,驻扎在阿富汗的北约国际安全援助部队(ISAF)将按计划撤出。这一年将成为地区力量平衡再次发生变化的重要节点,相关大国的全球及地区战略力量配置调整、中亚地区国家政治和经济转型进入关键阶段、中亚各国间矛盾冲突加剧、宗教极端主义思潮泛起等,诸多地缘政治因素同时活跃释放出的能量汇集中亚,将对这一地区的稳定与安全构成挑战。经历了23年独立建国历程的中亚五国正沿着各自选择的不同道路发展,中亚地缘政治版图的重新构建更趋多元化。面对这样一个充满挑战和考验的时段,中亚地区能否经受住北约联军撤出阿富汗所带来的一系列失衡和震荡,文本试图从可能影响中亚地区安全的几种主要因素入手,尝试分析这一地区未来形势。
[Abstract]:By the end of 2014, the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan will withdraw as planned. This year will become an important node for the regional balance of power to change again. The global and regional strategic power allocation of the major powers concerned will adjust, the political and economic transformation of the Central Asian countries will enter a critical stage, and the contradictions and conflicts among the Central Asian countries will intensify. The emergence of religious extremism and the energy released by many geopolitical factors at the same time will pose a challenge to the stability and security of this region. After 23 years of independent foundation, the five Central Asian countries are developing along the different paths they have chosen, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical map of Central Asia is becoming more diversified. In the face of such a challenging and challenging period, whether the Central Asian region can withstand a series of imbalances and shocks brought about by the withdrawal of NATO coalition forces from Afghanistan, the text attempts to start with several major factors that may affect the security of Central Asia. Try to analyze the future situation in this area.
【作者单位】：中国现代国际关系研究院俄罗斯研究所;
【分类号】：D815.4

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