再结盟预期与履约行为

发布时间：2018-05-22 16:34

  本文选题：联盟承诺 + 再结盟　； 参考：《国际政治科学》2017年01期

【摘要】：现有国际关系理论指出,国际联盟成员面临的共同外部威胁程度及其政治体制、意识形态的一致性,是结盟大国是否履行安全承诺的主要原因。现有理论没有充分讨论上述两个基本因素之间的交互作用对结盟大国履行联盟承诺的影响。本文提出,结盟大国再结盟的可能性是解释其是否履行联盟承诺的必要条件。本文选择了现有理论无法完全解释的经验现象,检验了结盟大国再结盟的可能性对其履行联盟承诺的影响。本文选择了1936年法国背弃法苏同盟承诺和1939年意大利履行德意同盟承诺两个案例,作为控制变量和理论检验的经验基础。依据英国、法国、德国和意大利的档案,本文提出,1936年英法结盟的前景是法国背弃对苏联安全承诺的重要原因;而1939年除德国之外意大利没有再结盟选项是其履行对德国安全承诺的重要原因。分析结盟大国再结盟的可能性与其是否兑现对联盟承诺的关系,有助于权衡当前中俄结盟前景对中国安全战略的影响。
[Abstract]:The current theory of international relations points out that the degree of common external threats faced by members of the League of Nations and the consistency of political system and ideology are the main reasons for the alliance powers to fulfill their security commitments. The existing theories do not fully discuss the influence of the interaction between the above two basic factors on the alliance commitments of the allied powers. This paper suggests that the possibility of realliance is a necessary condition to explain whether the alliance can be fulfilled. This paper selects the empirical phenomenon which can not be fully explained by the existing theories, and tests the influence of the possibility of the realliance of the allied powers on the fulfilment of the alliance promise. In this paper, two cases of France reneging on the Franco-Soviet Union commitment in 1936 and Italy fulfilling the German-Italian Union commitment in 1939 are selected as the empirical basis for controlling variables and theoretical tests. According to the archives of Britain, France, Germany and Italy, this paper points out that the prospect of Anglo-French alliance in 1936 is an important reason for France to renege on its commitment to the security of the Soviet Union. Italy's failure to realign itself with Germany in 1939 was an important reason for its commitment to German security. An analysis of the relationship between the possibility of a realliance of allied powers and the fulfilment of their commitments to the alliance will help to weigh the impact of the current Sino-Russian alliance prospects on China's security strategy.
【作者单位】： 清华大学国际关系学系;
【分类号】：D81
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本文编号：1922823