中国和平崛起的可行性研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 22:57

本文选题：中国威胁论 + 中国崩溃论　；参考：《山东大学》2011年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济的迅速增长,引起了世界的关注。特别是根据世界银行公布的数字,到2010年,中国的经济总量已经由1978年的世界第29位上升到第2位,中国的崛起似乎已经成为事实。但是,围绕着中国崛起的问题,国际上一直存在着两种不同的观点,即“中国威胁论”和“中国崩溃论”。前者认为,中国的崛起必然打破现有的世界格局,例如必然对美国的霸权形成挑战,从而打破现有的世界秩序。其主要依据是,近代国际社会各个大国崛起都是如此。“中国崩溃论”者认为,中国的迅速发展只是一个恢复性发展,且主要是靠增加投入而不是靠提高效率,.因此,中国的发展不可能持久。特别是,中国的迅速发展必然激发各种社会矛盾,这些矛盾最终将导致中国迅速崩溃。本文在对上述两种观点进行分析批判的基础上提出了自己的观点,即中国完全可能和平崛起。这个观点不是本文首创,但要想使它深入人心,使它变成全党、全国人民的自觉信念和自觉行动,就必须对“中国威胁论”和“中国崩溃论”进行深入的分析批判。毕竟,这两种观点目前在国内外均有一定的市场和影响力。本文的具体结构是,除导言和结语外,共分为五章。其中导言论证了选题的意义,分析介绍了国内外本选题的研究现状及本文的基本结构和创新点。第一章历史与现实：中国威胁论的由来和演变所谓“中国威胁论”,主要是在西方流行的一种宣传论调,认为中国经济的高速发展、中国综合国力的增强、中国文明及其不同于西方的发展模式将在不远的将来对以西方文明为基础的欧美国家、现存的国际社会、国际体系和国际秩序构成了严重的威胁。那么,所谓“中国威胁论”在内容上、理论上都有哪些依据呢?一般认为,“中国威胁论”主要有三大方面的内容,即“中国经济威胁论”、“中国军事威胁论”和“中国文明威胁论”；其依据是多方面的,主要是对中国现存的政治制度、意识形态和文化的偏见和敌视,还有西方国际关系理论中的一些理论学说和相关假说。归根到底,“牛国威胁论”反映了西方中心主义视角下对其他文明、国家、文化和发展模式的种种偏见,在某种程度上反映了历史上侵略过中国的西方,面对当今中国崛起的恐惧和忧虑心态。本文在这一章中运用不同的视角详细分析“中国威胁论”：首先是从最有迷惑性的西方国际关系理论的角度分析批驳,重点是现实主义理论部分,.包括霍布斯主义、权力转移理论和进攻性现实主义理论；二是运用“民主和平论”视角分析“中国威胁论”。这些理论视角不仅仅给“中国威胁论”赋予了各种各样的“理论基础”,而且使得“中国威胁论”更具有欺骗性。从而使得其在西方社会、尤其是学界和政界有了广泛的传播空间和社会基础。第二章对中国威胁论的批判首先,在所有的西方国际关系理论中,现实主义理论是产生“中国威胁论”的主要理论来源和基础,这种理论最倾向于将中国经济的迅速发展和综合国力的增强解读为现实性的“威胁”,所以最容易得出中国威胁论的悲观结论。现实主义理论主要是把美国的崛起作为一个参照系,把中国的情形与当年美国的情形作类比,有以小人之心推君子之腹的嫌疑,最根本的是中国崛起的外部和内部条件与美国当年崛起时都大不相同。因此,现实主义理论不能成为“中国威胁论”的根据。本章以进攻性现实主义理论为例,从西方国际关系理论的角度,对其关于“中国威胁论”的主要论点进行了分析和批判。此外,即使抛开国际关系理论方面,仅仅从过去中国经历的历史经验以及当前中国面临的种种问题等现实角度来观察,我们也可以清楚地发现,所谓“中国威胁论”也是站不住脚的。其次,从军事角度看,中国与美国的军事实力差距巨大,不可能主动挑战美国。中国缩小与美国为代表的国防现代化水平的目标非常明确：捍卫领土和国家主权完整。从经济角度看,到目前为止,中国的经济发展水平,不构成对世界上任何经济体的威胁。恰恰相反,这次世界金融危机后的表现证明,中国实际上担当了世界经济增长的发动机。从文明角度看,中华文明与世界其他文明一样都是世界文化资源的重要一部分,共同促进了世界的发展。通过分析,我们可以清楚发现,无论是以“中国军事威胁论”、“中国经济威胁论”还是“中国文明威胁论”为代表的“中国威胁论”,事实上都更多的是一种推断,种猜测,一种假说,并没有历史的必然性,更不具有逻辑的必然性。第三章中国和平崛起：国际政治背景下的战略分析从清代的闭关锁国到目前世界上数一数二的贸易大国,这个事实说明中国的发展不可能走传统的老路。经济全球化事实上已经使中国成为世界的一部分。中国的发展必须在世界发展的过程中实现。当今的时代主题也决定了“和平崛起”既是中国发展道路的主动战略,也是当前国际政治背景下的必然选择。从当今国际政治背景出发,我们可以清楚的发现,中国和平崛起的道路仍然面临两大方面的影响。其一是中国崛起的新时代背景；其二是地缘政治与中国崛起的区域障碍。前者是中国和平崛起的积极因素,后者则在某种程度上对中国和平崛起的过程构成了某种制约。具体来说,对于中国崛起的新时代背景而言,如果说后冷战时代中国的崛起和历史上西方强国的崛起模式有什么不同的话,其典型的一个特征是中国的崛起过程的和平性与中国发展道路的可持续性,即中国“和平崛起道路”的实现。其原因主要是三个方面：全球化深化了当今“和平与发展”的时代主题；美国的制度性霸权给新兴的崛起国利用积极参与国际机制、实现和平崛起提供了可能；“新型工业化和信息化”的发展不仅为中国经济的持续发展提供了保障,也是中国和平崛起的历史机遇。从地缘政治上讲,中国崛起有三个不利因素：与周边国家的领土争端问题；海权争端以及台湾问题。本文认为,首先,坚持目前的“搁置争议、共同开发”政策将有利于减少中国和平崛起过程的阻力；其次,发展海权有利于中国自身的发展,同时也有利于维护世界自由市场经济贸易体系,这和美国的利益是一致的。另外,中美两国经济贸易利益是相互渗透共存、共生共荣的,中国经济利益受损也意味着美国经济利益受损,所以美国没有什么理由遏制中国拥有正当海权,并且这也完全不会损害中国和平崛起的国际形象。最后,台湾问题的解决将决定中国崛起的成败,涉及中国崛起全局的战略问题。要圆满解决台湾问题,首先要立足自身的发展,提高综合国力,其次是加强和台湾的交流与合作,只要做到这两点,台湾早晚会回到祖国的怀抱。第四章中国崩溃论和当前中国经济社会面临的矛盾和问题中国崩溃论是西方国家一些人士针对中国在发展的过程中所出现的经济、政治、社会等矛盾和问题,质疑中国经济增长的持续性,并预言中国将在数年内走向崩溃的一种论调。在本质上,它和中国威胁论一样,都是对中国现状及未来发展的错误判断和预言,是对中国和平崛起而产生的一种极不适应的反应,从某种程度来说,它也是在西方国家某种政治需要的情况下,而对中国进行的一种别有用心的攻击。中国崩溃论产生的根源有多种：中国威胁论的破产,西方中心主义的影响,冷战思维的作祟,以及政治上歪曲中国发展的需要是其产生的主要根源。另一方面,中国在经济社会发展的过程中确实存在着诸多的矛盾和问题,这些矛盾和问题已经对中国的发展产生了重大的阻碍作用。这些矛盾和问题主要分为两大类,一类是结构性矛盾,主要包括：政府与市场的矛盾；消费、投资、出口的矛盾；粗放型经济增长与资源、环境的矛盾；城市与农村二元制结构矛盾；另一类是体制性矛盾,主要包括：腐败和法治的缺失。在结构性矛盾和体制性问题影响下,民生问题严重,如住房,教育,医疗等已经直接成为影响老百姓生活的重大问题之一。第五章对中国崩溃论的批判中国崩溃论错误的根本原因在于完全忽视中国经济社会巨大发展的现实,而是专注于经济社会发展中的一些矛盾和问题,并对矛盾和问题进行夸大,以此来判断中国的基本国情,并由此对中国的未来进行错误预测,显然这种以偏概全,以点概面的方法,完全颠倒了对中国经济社会的正确认识。它的本质与中国威胁论一样,是恶化中国的国际环境,延缓中国的发展,遏制中国的崛起。当然,中国崩溃论者所提到的一些矛盾和问题虽然客观地存在,但是很多问题都是在中国发展的过程中产生的,、是在现代化进程当中不可避免地产生的。我们应该辩证地看待中国经济社会中的若干问题,应该从长远的角度和全局的视角来看待中国的崛起。。当代中国经济社会产生的矛盾和问题很多都具有阶段性的特点,是中国崛起的过程中所不可避免的,我们应该用发展的眼光来看待这些问题,在发展的过程中解决这些问题。中国改革开放以来三十多年发展的巨大成就已经在事实上宣告了中国崩溃论的失败。虽然存在着若干的矛盾和问题,然而中国的改革开放事业和现代化建设进程已经取得了巨大的成就。：如今的中国已经拥有了解决这些问题的物质和体制基础,其中物质性基础包括：巨大的经济规模、人口与市场和科技创新。体制性基础包括：社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善、集权体制下的政治稳定和经济发展。而且中国崛起拥有着巨大的优势：高资本形成率,教育和丰富的人力资本及技术创新力量,所有这些都是中国崛起的动力和源泉。总的来说,中国存在的若干问题在目前阶段已经拥有了解决的必要条件：中国市场经济体制的建设和完善将推动中国政治体制的改革,转变经济增长方式已经刻不容缓,巨大的财力将是解决民生问题的基础。结语时至今日,中国已经摸索到了一条适合中国国情的渐进式改革之路,这条道路已经在过去三十多年里取得了成功：事实证明,中国只要按照三十年前确定的渐进式改革之路,一步一个脚印,不动摇,不懈怠,不折腾,坚定不移地走自己的路,就一定能够破除“中国崩溃论”的谣言,顺利实现中国的和平崛起。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the rapid growth of China's economy has aroused the attention of the world. In particular, according to the figures published by the world bank, China's economic total has risen from twenty-ninth in 1978 to second in 2010, and the rise of China seems to have become a fact.
However, around the rise of China, there have been two different views in the world, namely, the "China Threat Theory" and "China's collapse theory". The former believes that the rise of China will inevitably break the existing world pattern, such as the inevitable challenge to the hegemony of the United States and break the existing world order. Its main basis is modern times. This is the case with the rise of every big country in the international community. "China's collapse theory" believes that China's rapid development is only a restorative development, and mainly depends on increasing investment rather than improving efficiency. Therefore, China's development cannot be sustained. In particular, the rapid development of China will inevitably stimulate various social contradictions, and these contradictions will eventually come to the end. It led to a rapid collapse of China.
On the basis of the analysis and criticism of the above two views, this paper puts forward his own point of view, that is, China is completely likely to rise peacefully. This view is not the first creation of this article. But if it is to make it deep in the people's mind and make it a whole party, the National People's conscious belief and conscious action must be on the "China Threat Theory" and "China's collapse theory". After in-depth analysis and criticism, after all, these two views have a certain market and influence both at home and abroad.
The concrete structure of this article is divided into five chapters except the introduction and conclusion. The introduction demonstrates the significance of the topic, analyzes the research status of this topic at home and abroad, and the basic structure and innovation point of this article.
Chapter one: history and reality: the origin and evolution of China's threat theory
The so-called "China Threat Theory" is mainly a popular publicity argument in the West that the rapid development of China's economy, the strengthening of China's comprehensive national strength, and the development model of Chinese civilization and its different from the West will be in the near future for the European and American countries based on Western civilization, the existing international society, the international system and the international order. A serious threat was posed.
So, what is the theoretical basis for the content of the "China Threat Theory"? It is generally believed that the "Chinese threat theory" has three main aspects, namely, the "China Economic Threat Theory", "the Chinese military threat theory" and "the Chinese civilization threat theory", which are based on many aspects, mainly to the existing political system in China, The prejudice and hostility of ideology and culture, and some theories and hypotheses in the western theory of international relations. In the final analysis, the "bull state threat theory" reflects the prejudice against other civilizations, States, cultures and development patterns from the perspective of western centralism, and to some extent reflects the invasion of China in the west of history. Fang, facing the fear and anxiety mentality of the rise of China today.
In this chapter, we use different perspectives to analyze the "China Threat Theory" in detail: first, it analyzes the criticism from the most puzzled western theory of international relations, focusing on the theory of realism, including the Hobbes doctrine, the theory of power transfer and the theory of offensive realism, and the two is the use of "Democratic Peace Theory". The angle analysis of the "Chinese threat theory". These theoretical perspectives not only give a variety of "theoretical foundations" to the "China Threat Theory", but also make the "Chinese threat theory" more deceptive, thus making it widely spread and social in the western society, especially in the academic and political circles.
The second chapter on the criticism of China's threat theory
First, in all western theories of international relations, realism is the main theoretical source and foundation for the emergence of "China's threat theory". This theory is most inclined to interpret the rapid development of China's economy and the enhancement of the comprehensive national strength as a realistic "threat", so it is the most easy to draw the pessimistic conclusion of the Chinese threat theory. The theory of righteousness mainly regards the rise of the United States as a frame of reference, and compares the situation in China to the situation in the United States in the same year. There is a suspicion of pushing the belly of the gentleman with the heart of a small man. The most fundamental is that the external and internal conditions of the rise of China are not the same as that of the rise of the United States. This chapter, taking the offensive realism theory as an example, analyzes and criticizes the main arguments about the "China Threat Theory" from the perspective of western international relations theory. In addition, the historical experience of the past China and the various problems facing China are now given out of the theory of international relations. From a real perspective, we can clearly see that the so-called "China Threat Theory" is also untenable.
Secondly, from the military point of view, the military strength gap between China and the United States is huge, and it is impossible to challenge the United States actively. China's goal of reducing the level of national defense modernization represented by the United States is very clear: defending the territorial and national sovereignty. From an economic point of view, the level of China's economic development so far does not constitute any of the world's level. On the contrary, on the contrary, the performance after the world financial crisis proves that China is actually taking on the engine of world economic growth. From the angle of civilization, Chinese civilization, like other civilizations in the world, is an important part of the world's cultural resources, which jointly promotes the development of the world.
Through the analysis, we can clearly find that whether it is "China's military threat theory", "China's economic threat theory" or "Chinese civilization threat theory" as the representative of "China Threat Theory", in fact, more is a kind of inference, kind of speculation, a hypothesis, there is no historical inevitability, more not logical necessity.
The third chapter: China's Peaceful Rise: a strategic analysis in the context of international politics
The fact that the development of China is in fact made China a part of the world in fact has made China a part of the world. The development of China must be achieved in the process of world development. The theme of the present times also determines the "peaceful rise". "Is an active strategy for China's development path, and is also an inevitable choice under the current international political background.
From the current international political background, we can clearly find that the path of China's peaceful rise still faces two aspects. One is the new era background of China's rise, and the other is the regional barriers to the rise of geopolitics and China. The former is the accumulating factor of China's peaceful rise, and the latter is to some extent to China and to China. The process of the rise of peace constituted some kind of restriction.
Specifically, for the background of the new era of China's rise, if there is any difference between the rise of China in the post Cold War era and the rising mode of the history of the Western powers, the typical feature is the peace of China's rising process and the sustainability of China's development road, which is the realization of the "road of peaceful rise" in China. The main reason is three aspects: globalization has deepened the contemporary theme of "peace and development"; American institutional hegemony provides the emerging rising countries with active participation in international mechanisms to achieve peaceful rise, and the development of "new industrialization and information" not only provides a guarantee for the sustained development of China's economy, It is also a historical opportunity for China's peaceful rise.
From the geopolitical point of view, China's rise has three unfavorable factors: territorial disputes with the surrounding countries, the sea power dispute and the Taiwan issue. In the first place, insisting on the current policy of "shelving disputes and co developing" will help to reduce the resistance of China's peaceful rise. Secondly, the development of sea rights is beneficial to China itself. Development is also conducive to maintaining a free market economy and trade system in the world, which is consistent with the interests of the United States. In addition, the economic and trade interests of China and the United States are mutually permeated and coexisting together, and the economic interests of China are impaired, and the United States has no reason to contain China's legitimate sea rights. And this will not damage the international image of China's peaceful rise. Finally, the settlement of the Taiwan issue will determine the success or failure of China's rise and the strategic issue of China's rise to the overall situation. To successfully solve the problem of Taiwan, first of all, we should base itself on the development of its own and improve the comprehensive national strength, the second is to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan, as long as this is done. At two points, Taiwan will return to the embrace of the motherland sooner or later.
The fourth chapter is about China's collapse theory and the contradictions and problems faced by China's economic and social sectors.
The theory of China's collapse is an argument that some people in the West have emerged in the course of the development of China, such as economic, political, social, and other contradictions and problems, question the sustainability of China's economic growth, and predict the collapse of China in a few years. In essence, it is the same as the threat theory of China, which is the present situation and future development of China. Misjudgments and predictions are an extremely inappropriate response to China's peaceful rise. To a certain extent, it is also a kind of ulterior attack on China under some political needs of the western countries.
There are many sources of China's collapse theory: the insolvency of China's threat theory, the influence of western centralism, the thought of the cold war, and the need for political distortion of China's development are the main sources of it.
On the other hand, there are many contradictions and problems in the process of China's economic and social development. These contradictions and problems have had a significant hindrance to the development of China. These contradictions and problems are divided into two major categories, one is structural contradiction, including the contradiction between the government and the market, consumption, investment, and export. Contradictions; the contradiction between the extensive economic growth and the resources and the environment; the contradiction between the two yuan structure in the city and the countryside; the other is the institutional contradiction, which mainly includes the lack of corruption and the rule of law. Under the influence of structural and institutional problems, the serious problems of the people's livelihood, such as housing, education and medical treatment, have directly affected the lives of the people. One of the major issues.
The fifth chapter of the critique of China's collapse theory
The fundamental reason for the failure of China's theory of collapse is to completely ignore the reality of the great economic and social development of China, but to concentrate on some contradictions and problems in the economic and social development, and exaggerate the contradictions and problems to judge China's basic national conditions and to make a mistake prediction of the future of China. The method of point probability completely reverses the correct understanding of China's economic society. Its essence, like the Chinese threat theory, is to deteriorate the international environment of China, delay the development of China and curb the rise of China.
Of course, some of the contradictions and problems mentioned by the Chinese collapse theory exist objectively, but many problems are produced in the process of China's development, which inevitably arise in the process of modernization. We should dialectically look at some of the problems in the Chinese economy and society, which should be viewed from a long-term and global perspective. Looking at the rise of China, many of the contradictions and problems in the contemporary Chinese economy and society are characterized by stages, which are inevitable in the process of the rise of China. We should look at these problems with the vision of development and solve these problems in the process of development.
The great achievements of China's more than 30 year development since the reform and opening up have actually declared the failure of China's collapse theory. Although there are some contradictions and problems, China has made great achievements in the process of reform and opening up and the process of modernization. And the foundation of the system, the material base package
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D820

【引证文献】