中国崛起、东亚格局和东亚秩序:现状与未来

发布时间：2018-06-24 09:34

本文选题：中国崛起 + 东亚格局　；参考：《现代国际关系》2017年09期

【摘要】：中国崛起与东亚权力格局的变动和秩序变迁一直以来是各界关注的重要议题。中国崛起带动东亚权力格局的变迁,东亚格局的变迁又促使东亚秩序的变革。三者之间相互作用,相互影响。本文首先讨论了中国崛起作为一个学术概念的内涵和定义,在此基础上对相关事实进行分析,发现中国作为一个体系大国的崛起被夸大,其崛起的进程才刚刚开始,且只是经济的部分崛起。本文对当前和未来近20年的东亚权力格局进行分析和预测,结果显示东亚已经浮现出中美两极格局,且未来20年内仍将朝着这一格局继续演变。在东亚两极格局已成现实的情况下,秩序变迁势在必行。中美是东亚地区秩序构建的关键力量,东亚秩序的未来将直接取决于中美在此问题上的战略互动,"一快一慢,双头领导"是本文提出的东亚秩序变迁的方向和路径建议。
[Abstract]:The rise of China and the change of power structure and order in East Asia have always been the important issues concerned by all walks of life. The rise of China drives the change of power pattern in East Asia and the change of East Asian order. The three interact and interact with each other. This paper first discusses the connotation and definition of China's rise as an academic concept. Based on the analysis of relevant facts, it is found that the rise of China as a systemic power has been exaggerated, and the process of its rise has just begun. And only part of the economic rise. This paper analyzes and forecasts the power pattern in East Asia at present and in the next 20 years. The results show that the bipolar pattern of China and the United States has emerged in East Asia and will continue to evolve in the next 20 years. In East Asia, the bipolar pattern has become a reality, the change of order is imperative. China and the United States are the key forces in the construction of order in East Asia, and the future of the order in East Asia will depend directly on the strategic interaction between China and the United States on this issue. "one quick, one slow, two heads of leadership" is the direction and path of the change of East Asian order put forward in this paper.
【作者单位】：南开大学周恩来政府管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目资助,项目编号:13&ZD049
【分类号】：D822.331

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