中国的能源安全战略对中美关系的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 07:58

本文选题：能源安全 + 能源外交　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：本文从中美能源安全战略的角度对中美关系进行分析,分析的主导视角是中国的能源安全战略。冷战结束后,中美关系成为国际社会中最重要的双边关系。中美两国在多方面进行合作,但是在战略安全领域却是对立、竞争与合作共存的。在中美能源安全关系上也是如此。目前能源安全成为影响国家安全和经济发展中一个十分重要的因素。能源,尤其石油是一种战略性资源,其供应不仅关系到一个国家的经济发展,更关系到社会稳定、区域安全和世界政治、军事形势。因此,当代工业国家,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,石油安全都是国家安全和经济安全的重要组成部分。作为新兴经济大国,中国的能源消耗正随着经济的发展而激增,对国际供求不均衡与短期价格暴涨的危机感正也愈加敏感。因此,中国政府将以石油的安全供应为能源安全的主要目标。为实现这一目标,最重要的是以能源的安全供应与运输为后盾。相反,美国的能源战略,是以控制能源为基础,进而主导国际秩序。为此,美国一方面通过跨国能源公司确保能源供应,另一方面美国政府运用政治、外交、军事手段,维持美国主导的能源霸权格局。从中国的立场看,威胁其自身能源安全的因素较多。其中,由于中国石油对外依赖程度较高,威胁因素主要集中于以下三个方面：原油供应过程中供应源的不稳定、运输通道的安全问题与原油价格的不稳定。因此,为确保能源安全,中国一方面正在展开积极的能源外交,另一方面又在推进战略石油储备及海军现代化。从能源供应的角度来看,中美两国消耗的原油量均大于本国的产量且两国的需求量正在持续增加,但两国采取了不同的手段。美国企图通过对能源的控制而维持其世界霸权。而中国为了获得独立安全的能源供应,正在实施积极的能源外交。由此看来,中美两国围绕能源保障的竞争将愈发激烈。中国认为,在其能源安全威胁因素中,最为现实的因素与能源运输路线的安全有关。美国运用军事力量对能源运输通道进行控制。如美国是唯一拥有军事力量封锁马六甲海峡的国家。中国最为担忧的是美国对马六甲海峡的封锁。胡锦涛主席将这种忧虑称为“马六甲困局”。因此,中国正在加强确保能源运输通道的安全的举措。中国在展开积极的能源外交的同时,正在加速发展其军事力量,尤其是海军。对于中国欲通过增强军事实力,确保海上运输通道安全的意图,美国国内表现出担忧,并对其进行牵制。因此,中美之间存在冲突的可能性。但中美两国间因海上能源运输通道而发生冲突的可能性极小。在和平状态下,非传统安全问题对中美能源运输安全已构成威胁。而且,中美两国维持海上运输通道的和平共存态势也是中美两国的共同利益。因此,中美两国将有通过合作解决海盗等非传统安全问题的空间。中美两国海军将会因海上运输通道安全进行更多的战略沟通合作。中美两国虽然在确保能源供应方面存在竞争,但是中美两国都是对外依赖度高的能源消费国,在石油价格稳定及石油需求稳定方面存在共同利益。美国及国际能源机构(IEA)邀请中国加入IEA,让中国参与IEA紧急共享体系。但IEA章程规定成员国必须是经济合作与发展组织(OECD)成员,中国却又无权加入。但IEA已经表示,为了让中国加入,该组织可以考虑修改章程的相关规定。但是IEA是由西方国家主导的能源机构,中国担心加入IEA自身的石油战略储备会受到过多的影响。其实,从博弈的收益角度来看,IEA成员国与中国的利益都是一致的。中国加入IEA可以进一步加强IEA干预世界石油市场的能力达到石油价格的稳定。短期来看,中国加入IEA不一定导致石油价格下降,但可以增强IEA维护世界油价平稳的能力,能源消费国都可以间接获利从而维持经济的稳定发展。因此,中美两国在IEA内有进行石油战略储备方面合作的可能性。总而言之,笔者认为,中国目前采取的能源安全战略使得中国和美国之间的冲突的可能性不是太大。中国的积极的能源外交努力,中国对产油国的影响力将增加。而且随着中国海军力量的增强,将会引起东北亚地区国家的军事力量相应增强甚至军备竞争。这将会威胁地区安全与中美关系。但是,从短期来看,这并不是对于美国霸权的挑战,而且也不会造成世界能源秩序的大变化。中美双方在安全的石油供应方面存在着竞争与合作。但是,两国因为石油问题而发生战争的可能性几乎很小。中国和美国两个国家都是追求自身利益的国家。此外,中美两国为了国家安全都要确保能源安全。因此,笔者认为,中国和美国,一方面在避免直接冲突的同时,将展开各自的能源安全战略。同时,另一方面,通过合作解决能源安全问题构成的威胁。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes Sino US relations from the perspective of China and the United States energy security strategy. The leading perspective of the analysis is China's energy security strategy. After the end of the cold war, Sino US relations have become the most important bilateral relations in the international community. China and the United States have cooperated in many ways, but in the field of strategic security, the coexistence of competition and cooperation. It is also the same as the energy security relationship between China and the United States. Energy security has become a very important factor affecting national security and economic development. Energy, especially oil is a strategic resource. Its supply is not only related to the economic development of a country, but also to social stability, regional security and world politics and military situation. In modern industrial countries, both developed and developing countries, oil security is an important part of national security and economic security.
As a emerging economic power, China's energy consumption is increasing with the economic development, and it is becoming more sensitive to the crisis of international supply and demand imbalance and short-term price boom. Therefore, the Chinese government will use the safe supply of oil as the main target of energy security. On the contrary, the US energy strategy is based on the control of energy and leading to the international order. To this end, the United States, on the one hand, ensures energy supply through transnational energy companies, on the other hand, the United States government uses political, diplomatic and military means to maintain the US led energy hegemony.
From China's standpoint, there are many factors that threaten its own energy security. Among them, because of the high degree of foreign dependence of China's oil, the threat factors are mainly concentrated in the following three aspects: the instability of supply sources in the process of crude oil supply, the safety of transportation channels and the instability of the original oil price. Positive energy diplomacy is being launched, and strategic petroleum reserves and naval modernization are also being promoted.
From the perspective of energy supply, both China and the United States have consumed more crude oil than their own production and the demand for both countries is increasing, but the two countries have taken different means. The United States is trying to maintain its world hegemony by controlling energy. China is carrying out active energy in order to gain an independent and secure energy supply. From this point of view, the competition between China and the United States on energy security will become increasingly fierce.
China believes that among its energy security threats, the most realistic factor is related to the safety of energy transport routes. The United States uses military forces to control energy transport channels. For example, the United States is the only country with military forces to blockade the Malacca Straits. China's most concern is the United States blockade of the Malacca Strait. Hu Jintao The president called the worry "the Malacca dilemma". Therefore, China is strengthening its efforts to ensure the safety of the energy transport corridor. China is accelerating the development of its military forces, especially the Navy, while expanding its active energy diplomacy. The possibility of conflict exists between China and the United States. However, the possibility of conflict between China and the United States is very small. In the state of peace, the non-traditional security problems have posed a threat to the safety of energy transport between China and the United States. Moreover, China and the United States maintain the sea transport channel and the United States and China. The common interests of the two countries are also the common interests of the two countries. Therefore, China and the United States will have the space to solve the non traditional security problems such as piracy through cooperation. The navy of the two countries will carry out more strategic communication and cooperation on the safety of maritime transport channels.
Although China and the United States have competition to ensure energy supply, both China and the United States are all energy consuming countries with high external dependence. There is a common interest in the stability of oil prices and the stability of oil demand. The United States and the International Energy Agency (IEA) invite China to join the IEA to participate in the IEA emergency sharing system. But the statute of the IEA stipulates that The country must be a member of the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), but China does not have the right to join. But IEA has said the organization can consider revising the provisions of the constitution to allow China to join. But IEA is an energy agency dominated by the west, and China is worried that the oil strategic reserve to join the IEA will be too much. In fact, From the point of view of the benefit of the game, the IEA member countries are consistent with China's interests. China's accession to the IEA can further strengthen the ability of IEA to intervene in the world oil market to achieve the stability of oil prices. In the short term, China's accession to the IEA will not necessarily lead to a decline in the price of oil, but can enhance the capacity of IEA to maintain the smooth world oil price. Therefore, China and the United States have the possibility of cooperation in strategic petroleum reserve in IEA.
In a word, the author believes that China's current energy security strategy is not so likely that the conflict between China and the United States is not too much. China's active energy diplomacy efforts, China's influence on the oil producing countries will increase. And with the strengthening of the Chinese Navy, it will lead to the corresponding military forces of the countries of the Northeast Asia. It will threaten regional security and Sino US relations. But in the short term, it is not a challenge to American hegemony, and it will not cause great changes in the world's energy order. There is competition and cooperation between China and the United States in the supply of safe oil. But the two countries war because of the oil problem. The possibility is almost small. Both China and the United States are two countries pursuing their own interests. In addition, both China and the United States have to ensure energy security for national security. Therefore, I believe that China and the United States, on the one hand, will develop their own energy security strategies while avoiding direct conflicts. On the other hand, cooperation can be done to solve the energy security strategy. The threat posed by source security.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F426.2;D822.371.2

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