冷战后美国对华政策决策层的认知分析
发布时间：2018-08-04 17:56
【摘要】：冷战后，中美关系跌宕起伏，甚至出现数次危机，但之后都能化险为夷，最终走向正常发展的轨道，这是迄今为止冷战后中美关系发展的最显著的规律。中国坚持“韬光养晦，有所作为”的方针和“和平发展”的国际战略，以战略眼光和长远观点审视和处理中美关系，把握两国关系和平发展的大局，逐渐确定了发展中美关系的指导方针。相比之下，美国在对华政策上始终没有形成一致意见，并依仗其实力掌握着中美关系变化的主动性。因此，研究美国对华政策有助于把握中美关系的发展方向。本文试从影响美国对华政策错综复杂的因素中找到导致这一规律的根本原因。笔者认为，美国对华政策的制定和实施都是由人来执行的，其决策层是制定和实施对华政策的关键。 本文采用认知心理学的分析方法，通过分析冷战后老布什—克林顿—小布什—奥巴马四任六届政府决策层的认知结构（cognitive structure），包括信念体系（belief systems）和政治图式（political schema），从美国对华政策的决策层心理因素这一微观层次上分析美国对华政策的实质。冷战后历任政府对华政策决策层的信念体系包括其主要成员（总统、副总统、总统国家安全事务助理、国务卿、国防部长、财政部长、副国务卿、国家安全委员会东亚事务主任、负责亚太事务的助理国务卿和驻华大使等）的成长历程、宗教信仰、教育背景、职业生涯、政治思想和对华观点等，这是决策层制定对华政策的思想根源。在此基础上，笔者主要采用建立在信息加工基础上的第二代认知结构理论——政治图式理论来分析美国对华政策决策层的心理因素。图式是指“反映现实世界某些方面、围绕特定主题组织人们知识和设想并有助于理解和处理社会信息的一种心理框架或结构”。笔者认为，冷战后美国对华政策决策层的政治图式是“美国战略目标”、“美国经济利益”、“美国安全利益”和“美国价值观”四位一体组合构成的心理框架结构（老布什政府是除“美国安全利益”之外的三位一体组合）。历任决策层根据自身所处的国际和国内环境，对大量的涉及中国的信息进行加工，这些信息以中美互动关系（中美实力对比的变化、经贸关系、台湾问题等）为核心，以国际局势的变化为基础（大国力量对比变化、大国关系和全球问题等），同时受到美国国内因素（外交决策机构、利益集团和社会力量等）和第三方因素（如美国的盟国、敌视国、国际突发事件等）的影响。涉华信息首先以表征（representation）的形式存在于决策层的大脑中。表征一方面反映客观事物，另一方面又与决策层既有的对华政策的政治图式相互作用。美国决策层以其政治图式作为干预变量，对所得到的表征进行加工，使其所做出的任何对华政策都符合其既有的政治图式；如果在对华政策的具体实施过程中发现有与政治图式不符之处，决策层用其政治图式重新检验并修正该政策，直至最终做出自认为正确的决策并付诸实践。 笔者通过对比分析冷战后美国四任六届政府对华政策决策层的政治图式，找到其异同点尤其是共性，从微观层次上认清美国对华政策的实质，并以此为依据制定相应的对美政策。笔者发现，冷战后美国四任政府对华政策决策层政治图式均包括三个方面：美国战略目标（维护霸权）、美国经济利益（维护美国经济霸权、发展国内经济等）和美国价值观（包括自由、民主、人权等），从克林顿政府时期开始增加了美国安全利益（核不扩散、打击恐怖主义势力、全球性问题等）的内容。相同点是“美国战略目标”在所有政治图式中都处于支配地位。其不同点是：随着国际局势和中美互动关系（尤其是中美实力对比）的变化，加之两党传统信念体系的不同，“美国经济利益”和“美国价值观”以及“美国安全利益”在维护其战略目标时的相对地位和优先次序有所调整，，三者或四者由此形成以战略目标为支配地位的不同的关系组合。同时，历届政府决策层和国会中的对华强硬派与温和派之间的竞争和相互妥协也在很大程度上影响并修正了对华政策，表现在前三任政府的对华政策都由上任之初的对立或竞争转向后期的接触与合作。奥巴马政府有意识地避免了前三任的这种政策失误，但其第一届对华政策的发展趋势有矫枉过正之势。 笔者认为，美国对华政策的根本出发点和实质是为了维护美国的世界霸权，防止中国作为新兴大国挑战其世界领导地位，同时从未放弃向中国推行美国的价值观。需要指出的是，美国历任决策层尤其是其中的强硬派对中国的发展道路、世界的发展趋势以及价值观普世性上存在认知偏差。事实上，中国的和平发展没有挑战美国世界霸权的意图，但有维护自身核心利益的决心和能力；在经济全球化的大趋势下，美国在经济、政治、安全等各个领域都离不开与中国的合作，世界主导性大国和新兴大国之间的关系不再是简单的霸权竞争和取代关系，而是合作与相互依存的关系；美国的价值观并不具有普世性，在一定的社会发展阶段和很多国家与民族并不适用。美国决策层在这些方面的认知偏差在很大程度上影响着美国的对华政策和中美关系的发展方向。 当前中美关系中最大的问题是缺乏战略互信，即“战略互疑”呈上升趋势。中国制定对美政策时，要把握美国对华政策实质，同时避免自己对美国的认知偏差。让美国相信中国的和平发展道路，不仅要体现在中国对美政策和对外战略的宣传上，更重要的是通过沟通增进互信，从心理上矫正美国决策层的认知偏差，在中美关系发展方向上形成共识。笔者认为中美双方应从根本问题上、长远发展和当前关系处理三个方面处理好中美关系：在意识形态、社会制度和历史文化传统等方面相互尊重；从长远的战略角度强化双方互利共赢的合作，减少对双方不利的竞争和不必要的摩擦；当前应着重管控分歧，考虑和照顾对方的需求和关切，彼此妥协，建立危机管控机制。中国应和美国共同努力探索新型大国关系的内涵，并积极推动与美国构建更加成熟的新型大国关系。
[Abstract]:After the cold war, the relations between China and the United States have been undulating and even several crises, but after that, all of them can go into danger and eventually go to the track of normal development. This is the most remarkable rule in the development of Sino US relations so far. The far point of view is to examine and deal with the Sino US relations, grasp the overall situation of the peaceful development of the relations between the two countries, and gradually determine the guiding principles for the development of Sino US relations. In contrast, the United States has never formed a consensus on China's China policy and grasps the changes in Sino US relations depending on its strength. Therefore, the study of the US policy towards China is helpful to grasp. This paper tries to find out the fundamental causes of this rule from the complicated factors that affect the United States' policy to China. The author believes that the formulation and implementation of the US policy to China are carried out by people, and the decision-making level is the key to the formulation and implementation of China's policy to China.
In this paper, the cognitive psychology analysis method is used to analyze the cognitive structure (cognitive structure) of the four government decision layer of Bush - Clinton - George W. Bush - Obama after the cold war, including the belief system (belief systems) and the political schema (political schema), from the psychological factors of the policy level of the United States to China. On the level of the analysis of the essence of the American policy towards China, the belief system of the policy decision level of the government after the cold war includes its main members (president, vice president, assistant president, national security affairs, Secretary of state, defense minister, finance minister, deputy secretary of state, director of East Asia affairs of National Security Council, assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs and the assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs. " The growth process of the ambassador to China, religious belief, educational background, career, political thought and China's views on China are the ideological roots of policy making in the decision-making level. On this basis, the author mainly adopts the second generation cognitive structure theory based on information processing - political schema theory to analyze the policy decision of the United States to China The psychological factor of the stratagem. Schema refers to "a psychological frame or structure that reflects some aspects of the real world, organizing people's knowledge and imagination around a particular topic and helping to understand and handle social information." the author believes that the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the United States to China after the cold war are "American strategic objectives", "American economic interests." "The psychological frame structure of the four integration of" American security interests "and" American values "(the Bush administration is a combination of the Trinity other than the" American security interests "). The decision-making level processes a large number of information about China based on its own international and domestic environment, which is based on China and the United States The interaction (the change of the Sino US strength contrast, the economic and trade relations, the Taiwan problem, etc.) is the core, based on the changes in the international situation (the contrast of the power of the great powers, the great power relations and the global problems, etc.), and the domestic factors of the United States (diplomatic decision-making bodies, interest groups and social forces, etc.) and the third party factors (such as the allies and hostile countries of the United States. The influence of international emergencies. The information involved in China first exists in the brain of the decision making level in the form of representation. On the one hand, it reflects the objective things, on the other hand, the interaction with the political schemata of the policy in China. To process it, so that any policy to China made is in line with its existing political schemata. If there is something inconsistent with the political schema in the specific implementation of China's policy to China, the decision layer reexamines and corrects the policy with its political schemata until the final decision is made and put into practice.
Through the comparison and analysis of the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the four six governments in the United States after the cold war, the author finds its similarities and differences, and recognise the essence of the United States policy towards China from the micro level, and make the corresponding policy to the United States on this basis. The author finds that the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the four government in the United States after the cold war. All of these include three aspects: the US strategic objectives (maintaining hegemony), American economic interests (safeguarding American economic hegemony, developing domestic economy, etc.) and American values (including freedom, democracy, human rights, etc.), which began to increase the security interests of the United States (nuclear non-proliferation, the fight against terrorism, global problems, etc.) from the Clinton administration. The same point is that the "US strategic goal" is in the dominant position in all political schemata. The relative position and priority of maintaining its strategic objectives have been adjusted, and the three or four of them form a different combination of relations with strategic objectives. At the same time, the competition and compromise between the government decision-making layer and the Congress of the hardliners and the moderates in the Congress also greatly influence and amend the Chinese government. The policy, manifested in the first three governments' policy towards China, has shifted from the opposition or competition to the early stage to the later contact and cooperation. The Obama administration has consciously avoided the previous three policy mistakes, but the trend of its first China policy towards China has been overcorrected.
The fundamental starting point and essence of the American policy towards China is to safeguard the world hegemony of the United States, prevent China from challenging its world leadership as a emerging power, and never give up the value of the United States to China. In fact, the peaceful development of China does not challenge the hegemony of the United States, but has the determination and ability to maintain its own core interests. In the big trend of economic globalization, the United States can not cooperate with China in the economic, political, security and other fields. The relationship between the leading and emerging powers of the world is no longer a simple hegemonic competition and a replacement relationship, but a relationship between cooperation and interdependence; the values of the United States are not universal, and are not applicable in a certain stage of social development and in many countries and nations. To a certain extent, it affects the US policy toward China and the direction of Sino US relations.
At present, the biggest problem in Sino US relations is the lack of strategic mutual trust, that is, "strategic mutual doubt" is on the rise. China should grasp the essence of the US policy towards China and avoid its cognitive bias when formulating the US policy on the United States. On the propaganda, it is more important to promote mutual trust through communication, to rectify the cognitive bias of American decision making and to form a consensus in the direction of the development of Sino US relations. The author believes that both China and the United States should deal with the relationship between China and the United States in three aspects: the fundamental problem, the long-term development and the current relationship processing: the ideology, the social system and the historical text. We should strengthen mutual benefit and mutual benefit from a long-term strategic perspective and reduce the disadvantageous competition and unnecessary friction between the two sides. At present, we should focus on management and control differences, consider and take care of the needs and concerns of each other, compromise each other, and establish a system of crisis control. China should work together with the United States to explore new countries. The connotation of the relationship and actively promote the establishment of a more mature new power relations with the United States.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D871.2;D822
本文编号：2164653
[Abstract]:After the cold war, the relations between China and the United States have been undulating and even several crises, but after that, all of them can go into danger and eventually go to the track of normal development. This is the most remarkable rule in the development of Sino US relations so far. The far point of view is to examine and deal with the Sino US relations, grasp the overall situation of the peaceful development of the relations between the two countries, and gradually determine the guiding principles for the development of Sino US relations. In contrast, the United States has never formed a consensus on China's China policy and grasps the changes in Sino US relations depending on its strength. Therefore, the study of the US policy towards China is helpful to grasp. This paper tries to find out the fundamental causes of this rule from the complicated factors that affect the United States' policy to China. The author believes that the formulation and implementation of the US policy to China are carried out by people, and the decision-making level is the key to the formulation and implementation of China's policy to China.
In this paper, the cognitive psychology analysis method is used to analyze the cognitive structure (cognitive structure) of the four government decision layer of Bush - Clinton - George W. Bush - Obama after the cold war, including the belief system (belief systems) and the political schema (political schema), from the psychological factors of the policy level of the United States to China. On the level of the analysis of the essence of the American policy towards China, the belief system of the policy decision level of the government after the cold war includes its main members (president, vice president, assistant president, national security affairs, Secretary of state, defense minister, finance minister, deputy secretary of state, director of East Asia affairs of National Security Council, assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs and the assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs. " The growth process of the ambassador to China, religious belief, educational background, career, political thought and China's views on China are the ideological roots of policy making in the decision-making level. On this basis, the author mainly adopts the second generation cognitive structure theory based on information processing - political schema theory to analyze the policy decision of the United States to China The psychological factor of the stratagem. Schema refers to "a psychological frame or structure that reflects some aspects of the real world, organizing people's knowledge and imagination around a particular topic and helping to understand and handle social information." the author believes that the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the United States to China after the cold war are "American strategic objectives", "American economic interests." "The psychological frame structure of the four integration of" American security interests "and" American values "(the Bush administration is a combination of the Trinity other than the" American security interests "). The decision-making level processes a large number of information about China based on its own international and domestic environment, which is based on China and the United States The interaction (the change of the Sino US strength contrast, the economic and trade relations, the Taiwan problem, etc.) is the core, based on the changes in the international situation (the contrast of the power of the great powers, the great power relations and the global problems, etc.), and the domestic factors of the United States (diplomatic decision-making bodies, interest groups and social forces, etc.) and the third party factors (such as the allies and hostile countries of the United States. The influence of international emergencies. The information involved in China first exists in the brain of the decision making level in the form of representation. On the one hand, it reflects the objective things, on the other hand, the interaction with the political schemata of the policy in China. To process it, so that any policy to China made is in line with its existing political schemata. If there is something inconsistent with the political schema in the specific implementation of China's policy to China, the decision layer reexamines and corrects the policy with its political schemata until the final decision is made and put into practice.
Through the comparison and analysis of the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the four six governments in the United States after the cold war, the author finds its similarities and differences, and recognise the essence of the United States policy towards China from the micro level, and make the corresponding policy to the United States on this basis. The author finds that the political schemata of the policy decision layer of the four government in the United States after the cold war. All of these include three aspects: the US strategic objectives (maintaining hegemony), American economic interests (safeguarding American economic hegemony, developing domestic economy, etc.) and American values (including freedom, democracy, human rights, etc.), which began to increase the security interests of the United States (nuclear non-proliferation, the fight against terrorism, global problems, etc.) from the Clinton administration. The same point is that the "US strategic goal" is in the dominant position in all political schemata. The relative position and priority of maintaining its strategic objectives have been adjusted, and the three or four of them form a different combination of relations with strategic objectives. At the same time, the competition and compromise between the government decision-making layer and the Congress of the hardliners and the moderates in the Congress also greatly influence and amend the Chinese government. The policy, manifested in the first three governments' policy towards China, has shifted from the opposition or competition to the early stage to the later contact and cooperation. The Obama administration has consciously avoided the previous three policy mistakes, but the trend of its first China policy towards China has been overcorrected.
The fundamental starting point and essence of the American policy towards China is to safeguard the world hegemony of the United States, prevent China from challenging its world leadership as a emerging power, and never give up the value of the United States to China. In fact, the peaceful development of China does not challenge the hegemony of the United States, but has the determination and ability to maintain its own core interests. In the big trend of economic globalization, the United States can not cooperate with China in the economic, political, security and other fields. The relationship between the leading and emerging powers of the world is no longer a simple hegemonic competition and a replacement relationship, but a relationship between cooperation and interdependence; the values of the United States are not universal, and are not applicable in a certain stage of social development and in many countries and nations. To a certain extent, it affects the US policy toward China and the direction of Sino US relations.
At present, the biggest problem in Sino US relations is the lack of strategic mutual trust, that is, "strategic mutual doubt" is on the rise. China should grasp the essence of the US policy towards China and avoid its cognitive bias when formulating the US policy on the United States. On the propaganda, it is more important to promote mutual trust through communication, to rectify the cognitive bias of American decision making and to form a consensus in the direction of the development of Sino US relations. The author believes that both China and the United States should deal with the relationship between China and the United States in three aspects: the fundamental problem, the long-term development and the current relationship processing: the ideology, the social system and the historical text. We should strengthen mutual benefit and mutual benefit from a long-term strategic perspective and reduce the disadvantageous competition and unnecessary friction between the two sides. At present, we should focus on management and control differences, consider and take care of the needs and concerns of each other, compromise each other, and establish a system of crisis control. China should work together with the United States to explore new countries. The connotation of the relationship and actively promote the establishment of a more mature new power relations with the United States.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D871.2;D822
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 孙茹;;美国:“太平洋世纪”加大对华施压[J];世界知识;2011年23期
2 刘建飞;;2011年美国动态评析[J];中国党政干部论坛;2012年01期
本文编号：2164653
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