国际河流谈判思路分析

发布时间：2018-08-26 08:33

【摘要】：国际河流争端具有很强的政治性和复杂性,学者们经过长期的研究得出：协商谈判是解决国际河流问题的首选方式,也是争端和平解决的基础。国际河流是复杂的大系统工程,面对当前解决机制的缺乏,必须形成高效的谈判理论作为指导。本文第一部分详细论述了国际河流谈判的一般思路。首先阐述了国际河流谈判的相关制约,经过对众多因素的归类分析,指出国际法则和国家主权是国际河流谈判的根本制约因素,逻辑证明显示二者具有不可调和性,进而本文创造地提出了国际河流谈判的基本理念——有限主权原则。其次阐述了国际河流谈判的相关支撑,利益协调和恰当的运用博弈被认为是国际河流谈判的高效手段,在此利用函数方法创建了利益评价体系,非常巧妙地消除了价值标准的量纲差异,同时,博弈方法的创造性运用使得谈判更具说服力。最后设计了不同情景下的谈判思路,情景主要包括谈判态度和利益影响的主从关系两方面。本文第二部分以澜沧江——湄公河为例进行实证分析。研究结果表明,澜沧江——湄公河流域当前的谈判成果都在意料之中,然而,预测未来谈判形势,各国都希望实现合作,但要想早日建设全流域管理体系,下游四个国家是关键,它们甚至有必要为此做出适当的让步。
[Abstract]:International river disputes have a strong political and complexity. After a long period of research, scholars have concluded that negotiation is the preferred way to solve international river problems, and it is also the basis of peaceful settlement of disputes. The international river is a complex large-scale system engineering. Facing the lack of the current solution mechanism, it is necessary to form an efficient negotiation theory as the guide. The first part of this paper discusses the general ideas of international river negotiation in detail. First of all, this paper expounds the relevant constraints of international river negotiation. Through the classification and analysis of many factors, it points out that international law and national sovereignty are the fundamental restrictive factors of international river negotiation, and the logic proves that the two are irreconcilable. Then this paper creatively puts forward the basic idea of international river negotiation-the principle of limited sovereignty. Secondly, it expounds the related support of international river negotiation, interest coordination and appropriate use of game is considered to be an efficient means of international river negotiation. In this paper, the interest evaluation system is established by using the function method. At the same time, the creative use of game method makes negotiation more persuasive. In the end, the author designs the negotiation ideas under different scenarios, which mainly include two aspects: negotiation attitude and the relationship between principal and subordinate interests. The second part of this paper takes Lancang-Mekong River as an example. The results of the study show that the current results of the negotiations in the Lancang-Mekong River basin are expected. However, to predict the future situation of the negotiations, all countries want to achieve cooperation, but they want to build a management system throughout the basin at an early date. The four downstream countries are key, and they even need to make appropriate concessions.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.3

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