印度洋长策:目标2049
发布时间：2018-10-17 21:53
【摘要】：印度洋是古今大国争夺世界霸权必然要关注但进入后其结局都不好的区域。一般说来,控制印度洋的制海权必须有覆盖南北纬30度区域的作战能力——而只有世界性的大国才会有这样的能力,不然,其前途要么崛起,要么灭亡。但古今霸权国家来到印度洋便进入衰落期的教训告诉我们:在印度洋地区争强好胜的结果都是不好的,独吞世界从而独控印度洋的想法是不切实际的,对中国而言更是非常危险的,只有分享才是守福之道。国家发展道路并非只有要么衰落要么崛起即行扩张的黑白两道,在这中间一定会有守中持重的可持续发展的道路。世界只能在分享繁荣中和谐前进:欧洲当为欧洲人民的欧洲,美洲当为美洲人民的美洲,亚洲自然也是亚洲人民的。中国未来应当在"一截遗欧,一截赠美"的愿景中为自己也为亚洲争取到"一截还东国"的前途。大国崛起于地区性守成,消失于世界性扩张,节制性地运用国力既是保持国力持续增长的秘密,也是中国几千年屹立不倒的智慧所在。中国坚守地区性守成的政策既可帮助印度洋国家减轻"要么做一个有声有色的大国,要么就销声匿迹"的紧迫感,也会让中国避免在印度洋地区不恰当地透支国力并由此保证中国国内政治经济在21世纪下半叶的持续发展。
[Abstract]:The Indian Ocean is a region where great powers have to pay attention to the world hegemony, but their outcomes are not good after entering. In general, the power to control the Indian Ocean must have a combat capability that covers the 30-degree latitudes north and south, and only the world's great powers will have the ability to do so, or their future will either rise or perish. But the lesson that hegemonic powers have come to the Indian Ocean in the past and now to enter a period of decline tells us that the results of competing in the Indian Ocean are not good, and that the idea of monopolizing the world and taking control of the Indian Ocean alone is impractical. This is especially dangerous for China, where sharing is the only way to keep good fortune. The road of national development is not only black and white, which is either decline or rise, but also the path of sustainable development. The world can move forward in harmony only in sharing prosperity: Europe is Europe for its people, America for its people, and Asia for its people. In the future, China should strive for the future of "returning to the East" for Asia as well as for itself in the vision of "one piece of Europe and one part of the United States." It is not only the secret to keep the national strength growing continuously, but also the wisdom that China stands for thousands of years. China's adherence to a regional policy can help Indian Ocean countries to reduce their sense of urgency to "either become a powerful country or disappear." It will also prevent China from overdrawing power inappropriately in the Indian Ocean and thus ensure the continued development of China's domestic politics and economy in the second half of the 21st century.
【作者单位】： 北京航空航天大学战略问题研究中心;
【分类号】：D815
[Abstract]:The Indian Ocean is a region where great powers have to pay attention to the world hegemony, but their outcomes are not good after entering. In general, the power to control the Indian Ocean must have a combat capability that covers the 30-degree latitudes north and south, and only the world's great powers will have the ability to do so, or their future will either rise or perish. But the lesson that hegemonic powers have come to the Indian Ocean in the past and now to enter a period of decline tells us that the results of competing in the Indian Ocean are not good, and that the idea of monopolizing the world and taking control of the Indian Ocean alone is impractical. This is especially dangerous for China, where sharing is the only way to keep good fortune. The road of national development is not only black and white, which is either decline or rise, but also the path of sustainable development. The world can move forward in harmony only in sharing prosperity: Europe is Europe for its people, America for its people, and Asia for its people. In the future, China should strive for the future of "returning to the East" for Asia as well as for itself in the vision of "one piece of Europe and one part of the United States." It is not only the secret to keep the national strength growing continuously, but also the wisdom that China stands for thousands of years. China's adherence to a regional policy can help Indian Ocean countries to reduce their sense of urgency to "either become a powerful country or disappear." It will also prevent China from overdrawing power inappropriately in the Indian Ocean and thus ensure the continued development of China's domestic politics and economy in the second half of the 21st century.
【作者单位】： 北京航空航天大学战略问题研究中心;
【分类号】：D815
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