冷战后周边大国的对朝政策比较研究
发布时间：2019-03-02 12:09
【摘要】：冷战结束后,国际格局呈“一超多强”的发展趋势。在此背景下,朝鲜半岛作为冷战遗产,危机不断。相比较半岛南部的韩国,朝鲜由于外部封锁和自身体制的原因,迟迟不能融入国际社会,成为“苦难行军”的特殊国家。中国、美国、俄罗斯、日本作为能够影响国际格局的四大力量,都被深刻卷入朝鲜半岛事务当中,它们的对朝政策也深刻影响着东北亚的地区局势。四大国对朝政策目标在政治、经济、安全三大领域各不相同,在政策资源的拥有上存在着显著差异,在政策手段偏好上也相差甚远。中国侧重于实现睦邻友好的政治目标,在手段上倾向于政治手段;美国更关注于双重规制的政治目标和无核化的安全目标,在手段上则更偏好于使用军事手段和经济制裁;俄罗斯的首要政策目标在于实现俄朝传统友好关系,借机恢复其在远东地区的影响力,操作上也以政治手段为主;日本总体上优先考虑安全目标的实现,在操作上则以经济制裁和武力恫吓为主,政治对话为辅。这种政策目标与政策手段的迥异,使得四大国对朝政策难以协调。即便是在四大国共同考虑的安全目标——朝鲜核问题上,各国的优先事项、手段方式也存在着较大差异,导致了四大国对朝政策只能围绕着有限目标展开有限合作。在以朝核问题为代表的半岛事务上,由于四国政策目标与朝鲜自身关切的严重脱节,美国与朝鲜又坚守权力政治难以自拔,四大国之间缺乏战略信任又加剧了有限合作的脆弱性。从而导致四大国在对朝政策上往往陷入猎鹿博弈的困境,甚至出现朝鲜政策走向调动四大国的政策变化的局面。中国作为朝鲜半岛事务的利益攸关方,应当致力于维护传统权益、规避潜在风险,对朝政策也应适时调整,增强外交的效力和信度,并通过预防外交促进中朝关系向正常国家间关系转型,实现国家利益的优化与拓展。
[Abstract]:After the end of the Cold War, the international pattern shows the development trend of "more than one super strong." In this context, the Korean Peninsula as a cold war legacy, the crisis continues. Compared with South Korea in the southern part of the peninsula, North Korea, because of its external blockade and its own system, has been unable to integrate into the international community and become a special country in the "march of suffering". China, the United States, Russia and Japan, as the four major forces that can influence the international situation, have been deeply involved in the Korean Peninsula affairs, and their policies towards the DPRK have also profoundly influenced the regional situation in Northeast Asia. The policy objectives of the four major countries are different from each other in politics, economy and security. There are significant differences in the ownership of policy resources and the preference of policy means. China focuses on the realization of good-neighborly and friendly political goals, and favors political means by means, while the United States pays more attention to the political objectives of dual regulation and denuclearized security objectives, and favors the use of military means and economic sanctions in terms of means. The primary policy goal of Russia is to realize the traditional friendly relations between Russia and North Korea, to take the opportunity to restore its influence in the far East, and to operate mainly by political means. Overall, Japan prioritizes the achievement of security objectives, operating mainly by economic sanctions and force intimidation, supplemented by political dialogue. This policy goal and policy means are very different, making it difficult for the four big countries to coordinate their policies towards the DPRK. Even on the North Korean nuclear issue, a security goal considered jointly by the four powers, there are great differences in their priorities and ways of means, leading to limited cooperation between the four countries in their policy towards the DPRK around limited objectives. On Peninsula affairs represented by the North Korean nuclear issue, because of the serious disconnect between the objectives of the four-state policy and the concerns of the DPRK itself, the United States and North Korea have yet to cling to power politics and cannot extricate themselves from it. The lack of strategic trust among the four powers exacerbates the fragility of limited cooperation. As a result, the four major countries often fall into the dilemma of deer hunting game on their policies towards the DPRK, and even appear the situation that the North Korean policy tends to mobilize the policy changes of the four major countries. As a stakeholder in Korean Peninsula affairs, China should strive to safeguard its traditional rights and interests, avoid potential risks, adjust its policy towards the DPRK in due course, and enhance the effectiveness and reliability of its diplomacy. And through preventive diplomacy to promote the transformation of Sino-Korean relations to normal inter-state relations, to achieve the optimization and expansion of national interests.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815;D831.2
本文编号：2433039
[Abstract]:After the end of the Cold War, the international pattern shows the development trend of "more than one super strong." In this context, the Korean Peninsula as a cold war legacy, the crisis continues. Compared with South Korea in the southern part of the peninsula, North Korea, because of its external blockade and its own system, has been unable to integrate into the international community and become a special country in the "march of suffering". China, the United States, Russia and Japan, as the four major forces that can influence the international situation, have been deeply involved in the Korean Peninsula affairs, and their policies towards the DPRK have also profoundly influenced the regional situation in Northeast Asia. The policy objectives of the four major countries are different from each other in politics, economy and security. There are significant differences in the ownership of policy resources and the preference of policy means. China focuses on the realization of good-neighborly and friendly political goals, and favors political means by means, while the United States pays more attention to the political objectives of dual regulation and denuclearized security objectives, and favors the use of military means and economic sanctions in terms of means. The primary policy goal of Russia is to realize the traditional friendly relations between Russia and North Korea, to take the opportunity to restore its influence in the far East, and to operate mainly by political means. Overall, Japan prioritizes the achievement of security objectives, operating mainly by economic sanctions and force intimidation, supplemented by political dialogue. This policy goal and policy means are very different, making it difficult for the four big countries to coordinate their policies towards the DPRK. Even on the North Korean nuclear issue, a security goal considered jointly by the four powers, there are great differences in their priorities and ways of means, leading to limited cooperation between the four countries in their policy towards the DPRK around limited objectives. On Peninsula affairs represented by the North Korean nuclear issue, because of the serious disconnect between the objectives of the four-state policy and the concerns of the DPRK itself, the United States and North Korea have yet to cling to power politics and cannot extricate themselves from it. The lack of strategic trust among the four powers exacerbates the fragility of limited cooperation. As a result, the four major countries often fall into the dilemma of deer hunting game on their policies towards the DPRK, and even appear the situation that the North Korean policy tends to mobilize the policy changes of the four major countries. As a stakeholder in Korean Peninsula affairs, China should strive to safeguard its traditional rights and interests, avoid potential risks, adjust its policy towards the DPRK in due course, and enhance the effectiveness and reliability of its diplomacy. And through preventive diplomacy to promote the transformation of Sino-Korean relations to normal inter-state relations, to achieve the optimization and expansion of national interests.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815;D831.2
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 袁学哲;21世纪初中国朝鲜半岛政策研究[D];吉林大学;2013年
，本文编号：2433039
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