基于CLUE-S模型的哈尼梯田文化景观变化、驱动及情景模拟

发布时间：2018-03-23 11:23

本文选题：文化景观　切入点：驱动因子　出处：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：元阳哈尼梯田是我国著名的农业文化景观遗产,其独特的森林、梯田、村寨、河流为一体的生态系统具有丰富的生态、经济和美学价值。然而随着人类活动对其景观格局的不断干扰,该地区的梯田面积不断减少,森林资源遭到破坏,独特民俗文化逐渐消失,生态系统的稳定性被削弱,哈尼梯田农业文化景观遗产的可持续发展面临严重威胁。本文基于对元阳哈尼梯田景观格局特征和变化规律的分析,探讨研究区景观类型与各种驱动因子之间的关系,在此基础上对哈尼梯田景观格局的未来变化进行情景模拟。以云南省元阳县为研究区,利用该地区2005年和2013年的遥感影像为数据源,对哈尼梯田的景观格局和未来土地利用格局的变化进行研究。首先,利用Erdas Image9.2软件对遥感影像进行解译得到元阳县景观类型图,然后使用Fragstats3.3软件计算景观格局指数,分析研究区景观格局变化特征。之后使用Logistic回归模型探讨景观类型出现比率与各种自然和社会驱动因子之间的关系,并设定维持现状发展和规划保护两种情景计算土地需求状况。在此基础上利用CLUE-S模型对元阳县哈尼梯田2020年景观格局进行情景模拟,最后,根据对模拟结果的分析提出哈尼梯田农业文化景观遗产可持续管理的决策和建议。本文的主要研究成果有： (1)2005年至2013年间元阳哈尼梯田景观类型面积变化显著。其中,耕地和林地景观遭到破坏,水田、旱地、林地、草地面积减小,建设用地面积迅速增加,水域景观面积变化最小。从总体上看,景观破碎化程度变大。 (2)利用Logistic回归模型对景观类型出现比率与各驱动因子之间的关系进行回归分析表明,水田景观出现的概率与到主要河流的距离、到主要公路的距离成正比；旱地与到河流的距离和高程成反比与人口密度成正比；园地受到公路的距离和高程因子的影响较大,与到城市和乡镇行政中心的距离成反比；林地景观多分布在远离城镇的山区,受坡度因子的影响较大；草地与坡度、坡向因子成正比,与到行政中心的距离成反比；建筑用地与距离县级、乡镇行政中心的距离、人口密度成正比。使用ROC曲线观察模拟精度：水田0.754、旱地0.816、园地0.635、林地0.743、草地0.835、建设用地0.722、水域0.886,均在0.6以上说明本文选取的驱动因子有效,所选驱动因子与土地利用景观类型间有较强的相关性。 (3)以2005年元阳县景观类型数据为基础,将回归方程和其他参数输入到CLUE-S模型中对2013年土地利用情况进行模拟。同时,以2013年实际景观类型数据为参考,利用Kappa系数对模拟精度进行检验,检验结果值为0.8645,说明CLUE-S模型在对元阳哈尼梯田景观格局变化的模拟中具有一定的适用性。 (4)设定维持现状发展情景和规划保护情景,对2020年元阳县土地利用情况进行模拟和分析。发现两种情景下的土地利用状况既有一定的共同特征也存在一些差异：旱地、建设用地和水域面积均增加,水田和林地景观变化相反。在维持现状发展情景下,研究区生态环境不断被破坏,水田和林地面积减少,在规划保护情景下,元阳县生态环境得到改善,城市建设有序扩展,哈尼梯田农业文化遗产得到保护。 (5)针对元阳哈尼梯田地区2020年的情景模拟结果,结合其在景观生态和传统文化保护方面面临的问题,提出了促进梯田文化景观的可持续发展的六点建议：加强对哈尼梯田农业文化景观的整体研究；制定发展规划,控制景观类型的变化；发展集生态、经济效益为一体的生态旅游；提高传统农耕生产方式的收入水平;提高居民的教育水平；加强宣传,鼓励当地居民参与保护工作。
[Abstract]:Yuanyang Hani terrace is a famous agricultural cultural landscape heritage in China, its unique terrace, forest, village, river ecosystem as a whole has rich ecological, economic and aesthetic value. However, with the continuous interference of human activities on the landscape pattern of the terrace area of the area is decreased, the forest resources destruction the unique folk culture gradually disappeared and the stability of the ecosystem is weakened, the sustainable development of Hani terrace cultural landscape heritage is facing a serious threat.
The analysis of Yuanyang Hani terraced landscape pattern and changes based on the discussion of landscape types in the study area and the various driving relationship between factors, on the basis of the change in the future Hani terraced landscape pattern are simulated. In Yuanyang County of Yunnan Province as the study area, using remote sensing images in 2005 and 2013 in the area as the data source study on Hani terrace, landscape pattern and the future changes of land use pattern. Firstly, the remote sensing image of Yuanyang County landscape type map using Erdas Image9.2 software, and then calculate the landscape pattern index using Fragstats3.3 software, analysis of the characteristics of landscape pattern change research. After using the Logistic regression model to analyze the relationship between the driving factor the ratio of various kinds of natural and social landscape types, and set the status quo development and protection planning of two scenarios calculation The status of land demand. On the basis of the CLUE-S model are simulated on the terrace landscape pattern of Yuanyang County Hani last 2020, Hani put forward the sustainable management terrace cultural landscape heritage decision and suggestions based on the analysis of simulation results. The main research are as follows:
(1) changes in the area of Yuanyang between 2005 and 2013 Hani terraced landscape types significantly. Among them, cultivated land and woodland landscape destruction, paddy field, dry land, woodland, grassland area decreased, the area of construction land increased rapidly, landscape change water minimum. In general, the landscape fragmentation degree is bigger.
(2) using Logistic regression model to landscape and the relationship between the ratio of driving factors of regression analysis showed that the probability of paddy field and the distance to the main rivers, the main road is proportional to the distance to the river; dry land and the distance and elevation is inversely proportional to the ratio of population density; land is large effect of distance and elevation factor of highway, and inversely proportional to the city and township administrative center distance; forest landscape distributed in the mountains far away from the town, affected by the slope factor larger; grassland and slope, the slope factor is proportional, and inversely proportional to the administrative center of the county and the distance distance; building the township administrative center distance, population density is proportional to. Use the ROC curve to observe the simulation accuracy: dry paddy field 0.754, 0.816, 0.635 and 0.743 garden, woodland, grassland, construction land 0.835, 0.722, 0.886 water, More than 0.6 indicated that the driving factors selected in this paper were effective, and the selected driving factors had a strong correlation with the landscape types of land use.
(3) the landscape in Yuanyang County in 2005 based on the data type, the regression equation and other parameters to simulate the situation of land use in 2013 in the CLUE-S model. At the same time, the actual landscape types in 2013 data for the reference to verify the precision of simulation by using the Kappa coefficients, the test results was 0.8645, which indicates that the CLUE-S model is applicable in the simulation of changes in Yuanyang Hani terraced landscape pattern.
(4) set to maintain the status quo development protection scenario planning and scenario simulation and analysis of land use in Yuanyang County in 2020. It is found that the status of land use in two scenarios have some common features. There are some differences: dry land, construction land and water area increased, paddy field and woodland landscape changes instead. In the present development situation, the ecological environment of the study area has been destroyed, the area of paddy field and woodland decreased, in the protection planning scenario, Yuanyang County, the ecological environment is improved, the orderly expansion of city construction, the Hani terrace agricultural cultural heritage protection.
(5) for the 2020 Yuanyang Hani terrace area of scene simulation results, combined with its face in landscape ecology and traditional culture protection, puts forward six suggestions to promote the sustainable development of terrace cultural landscape: strengthen the overall study of Hani terrace culture landscape; planning and control of the change of landscape types; development in ecology, ecological tourism economic benefits as a whole; improve the income level of the traditional agricultural production mode; improve residents' education level; strengthen the publicity, encourage local residents to participate in the protection work.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：G122

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