乾嘉道时期淮河流域粮价研究（1736-1850）

发布时间：2018-03-15 22:27

本文选题：乾嘉道时期　切入点：淮河流域　出处：《南开大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：粮食是人类社会最基本的消费品,还是传统社会最重要的商品。粮价直接关系到人民的生活,市场的运行,以及清代的农政、仓政和荒政的运作,并为这些政略的展开提供不可或缺的决策前提。清政府为了解全国各地粮食供需状况,规定各级地方政府定期向上级报告辖区内的雨雪量、收成预计及实收分数、各种主要粮食市价、人口、仓储数额,建立了史无前例的全国性粮价奏报制度。本文以清代官方奏报的数据为基础,对淮河流域的粮价进行研究。文章首先分析清代淮河流域的农业生产状况、主要粮食作物种植和粮食供需情况,发现淮域的鲁南、豫东属余粮区,皖北、苏北属缺粮区。之后主体部分分别从市场流通、粮价变动特点、粮价与社会及市场整合四个方面进一步详细探讨。第一部分,通过研究淮域粮食市场流通情况,不同地区间的粮食调剂,市场中心、商人行为等问题,可以认识到淮域自发形成了由余粮区向缺粮区的粮食流通,市场呈现不断发展的趋势。并对国家政策、士绅、民众与市场的关系作出评价。第二部分,从长期趋势、季节指数、循环周期三个方面,考察了粮价序列随时间变动的情况。清代淮域粮价长期呈缓和的上涨趋势,季节性变动主要受到作物生长周期、耕作制度、余缺粮情况和运输流通的影响。通过频谱分析,淮域麦价存在着五年短周期和十七年长周期,它们形成的原因跟粮价短期波动和传统社会家庭周期变化有关。影响粮价的主要因素有气候变化、交通运输、人口田地、货币流通等。政府采取了鼓励垦殖和完善钱法等措施,以期从控制粮价的上涨趋势。第三部分研究了粮价短期波动的影响及社会各界的应对。清代淮河流域水、旱、蝗、疫灾害频繁,这些灾害引发了粮价短期的大幅波动和多次粮食暴动,并对社会风习产生了不良影响。政府采取了一系列应对措施,包括建设粮食储备体系,禁止遏籴遏粜、禁止囤积,以及临时性地散给银米、减免税金等,以促进粮食流通,平抑粮价。士绅则输粟散米、积极助赈,并担任着筹集仓谷的任务,清后期社仓、义仓纷纷建立,其管理、维护和运行主要由士绅负责,政府在这方面的职能有被士绅取代的倾向。第四部分通过相关、回归、协整三种方法对淮域粮食市场进行价格同步性分析,发现淮河流域的市场整合程度和运行效率均较高。并从新制度经济学的视角分析了较高程度的市场整合与小农经济共存的原因。本文尝试将理论与实证相结合,将文献描述与数理分析相结合,将制度史与区域经济史相结合,将微观考察与宏观论述相结合。从粮价视角,探讨其与社会的互动关系,深入了解清代淮河流域市场的运作机制,经济的发展程度,及与之相互关联的社会制度、文化特质。
[Abstract]:Grain is the most basic consumer goods in human society and the most important commodity in traditional society. Grain prices are directly related to the life of the people, the operation of the market, and the operation of the agricultural, warehouse and famine policies of the Qing Dynasty. In order to understand the situation of grain supply and demand in various parts of the country, the Qing government stipulated that local governments at all levels should report regularly to their superiors on the amount of rain and snow, the expected harvest, and the actual harvest score. Various major grain market prices, population, storage amount, established an unprecedented national grain price report system. Based on the data of the official newspaper in Qing Dynasty, this paper studies the grain price in the Huaihe River basin. The paper first analyzes the agricultural production situation, main grain crop planting and grain supply and demand situation of Huaihe River basin in Qing Dynasty. It is found that the southern part of Huai River, the east of Henan Province belongs to the surplus grain area, the north of Anhui Province and the north of Jiangsu Province belong to the grain shortage area, and then the main body parts circulate separately from the market. The characteristics of grain price changes and the four aspects of grain price integration with society and market integration are further discussed in detail. The first part, by studying the circulation of grain markets in Huaihe region, the distribution of grain among different regions, the market center, and the behavior of businessmen, etc. It can be recognized that the Huai region spontaneously formed the grain circulation from the surplus grain area to the grain shortage area, and the market showed a developing trend, and evaluated the national policy, the relationship between the gentry, the masses and the market. In the second part, from three aspects of long-term trend, seasonal index and cycle cycle, the change of grain price sequence with time is investigated. The effects of tillage system, surplus grain shortage and transportation circulation. By spectrum analysis, wheat prices in Huai region have a short period of five years and a long period of 17 years. The reasons for their formation are related to short-term fluctuations in grain prices and changes in traditional social family cycles. The main factors affecting food prices are climate change, transportation, population, land, currency circulation, etc. The government has taken measures to encourage cultivation and improve money laws. With a view to controlling the rising trend of food prices. The third part studies the influence of the short-term fluctuation of grain price and the response of all walks of life. The flood, drought, locust and epidemic disaster in the Huaihe River valley in Qing Dynasty are frequent, and these disasters have caused a large fluctuation of grain price in the short term and many grain riots. The government has taken a series of measures to promote grain circulation, including building a grain reserve system, prohibiting the sale of grain, prohibiting hoarding, distributing silver rice temporarily, reducing taxes, and so on. The gentry were responsible for the management, maintenance and operation of the grain in the later period of the Qing Dynasty, in which they were responsible for the management, maintenance and operation of the grain. The government has a tendency to be replaced by gentry in this respect. In 4th, the price synchronism of the grain market in Huai region was analyzed by correlation, regression and cointegration. It is found that the market integration and operational efficiency of Huaihe River basin are both high, and the reasons for the coexistence of market integration and small-scale peasant economy are analyzed from the perspective of new institutional economics. This paper attempts to combine theory with demonstration, literature description with mathematical analysis, institutional history with regional economic history, microcosmic investigation and macroscopic discussion. From the perspective of grain price, this paper probes into the interactive relationship between food price and society. Deeply understand the operating mechanism, economic development, social system and cultural characteristics of Huaihe River market in Qing Dynasty.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：K249

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