中国西汉—清代饥荒序列的重建及特征分析

发布时间：2018-08-23 20:04

【摘要】：粮食安全作为一个全球性话题,长期受到国内外学者的广泛关注,而"饥荒"属于粮食不安全的极端情况,受到自然因素和社会经济因素的综合影响。以史为鉴,重建中国古代饥荒序列,可为进一步分析饥荒的成因、影响等提供基础数据,为解决当前的粮食问题提供借鉴。本文以《中国历代自然灾害及历代盛世农业政策资料》为主要数据源,《中国灾害通史》辅之,重建中国西汉至清代的饥荒年数、次数、综合指数序列,并分析其特征。主要结论如下:(1)不论是发生年数还是次数,饥荒的时间序列没有显著的周期性,呈一定的波动趋势;(2)从饥荒综合指数序列看,存在6个饥荒相对多发的阶段,其中460~520AD、660~710AD、1420~1560AD饥荒影响范围大、发生时段集中,1160~1230AD、1640~1850AD饥荒频发但区域集中,而1260~1360AD饥荒频发且区域广布,各阶段饥荒的频率、强度特征不同;(3)饥荒本身并非一种自然现象,而是天灾人祸并行的结果,在有原因说明的记载中,旱灾、水灾、蝗灾、疫灾、赋税等都会引起饥荒。
[Abstract]:Food security, as a global topic, has long been concerned by scholars at home and abroad, while "famine" belongs to the extreme situation of food insecurity, which is influenced by natural factors and social and economic factors. Taking history as a mirror and reconstructing the sequence of famine in ancient China can provide basic data for further analysis of the causes and effects of famine and provide reference for solving the current grain problem. In this paper, the main data sources of natural disasters and agricultural policies in the past dynasties of China and the General History of disasters in China are used to reconstruct the number, times and comprehensive index sequence of famine from the Western Han Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty in China, and to analyze its characteristics. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) no matter the number of years or the number of times, the time series of famine has no significant periodicity and fluctuates to a certain extent; (2) from the comprehensive index sequence of famine, there are 6 phases of relatively frequent famine. Among them, 460 / 520AD / 660D / 710AD / 1420 / 1560AD / 1420AD / 1560AD / 1420AD / 1560AD / 1420 / 710AD / 1420AD / 1560AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / 1640AD / It is the result of both natural and man-made disasters. Drought, flood, locust plague, taxation and so on will cause famine.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院;
【基金】：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950103) 国家自然科学基金(NO.41371201)资助
【分类号】：X43;K22

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