碳排放强度约束下中国各行业部门碳排放权及减排量配额研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 06:34

本文关键词：碳排放强度约束下中国各行业部门碳排放权及减排量配额研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,气候变化问题对人类生活、经济发展产生了极大的影响,例如全球变暖造成各种环境问题,对人类的生存和发展产生较大威胁,因此受到世界各国的广泛关注。联合国政府间小组气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)IPCC第五次评估《综合报告》指出:进入20世纪中期之后,温室气体(例如CO2和甲烷等气体)排放量急剧增加以及一些其他的人为因素成为全球变暖的主要驱动因素。作为温室气体排放大国,中国在2015年巴黎召开的气候峰会上承诺到2030年碳排放强度较2005年排放水平降低60%-65%,并在经济发展和社会发展规划中加入碳排放强度作为规划指标,来衡量规划实施的有效性。明确的碳减排责任将有助于碳排放目标的实现,考虑到不同行业发展现状的差异性以及未来发展规划的特点,公平、公正、有理有据的分配碳减排责任是首先要明确的问题。首先,本文基于投入产出分析方法,结合投入产出表和能源平衡表核算了中国41个行业部门的碳排放量,并结合投入产出表中各行业增加值数据核算各个行业部门的碳排放强度,为碳排放权及减排量分配指标提供数据依据。其次,选取各行业历史碳排放量、碳排放强度、行业增加值以及居民消费量作为评价指标。运用信息熵多属性决策模型建立评价指标体系,进而得到各行业排放权及减排量分配系数。选择这些指标的主要原因是:行业历史碳排放量是衡量碳减排责任的主要指标,可充分反映谁污染谁治理的基本原则;行业增加值能有效反映行业的减排能力;而碳排放强度和各行业的居民消费量则能间接反映出各行业不同的碳减排潜力。第三,运用离散型二阶差分模型预测2030年国内生产总值(GDP)走向,通过碳排放强度核算排放强度约束下排放权及减排总量,并按照各行业分配系数将其分配到各个行业中去。最后,利用SPSS软件将排放权和减排量进行聚类分析,将碳减排标识推广到各行业部门,将其划分为强制减排行业、重点减排行业、鼓励减排行业和自愿减排行业4个等级,并针对处于不同阶层的行业及在排放权及减排量分配等方面提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of climate change has had a great impact on human life and economic development. For example, global warming has caused a variety of environmental problems, and has posed a great threat to the survival and development of human beings. Therefore, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) 5th Assessment of the Comprehensive report pointed out: after the middle of 20th century. The sharp increase in greenhouse gas emissions (such as CO2 and methane) and some other anthropogenic factors have become the main drivers of global warming. They are the major emitters of greenhouse gases. At a climate summit in Paris on 2015, China pledged to reduce its carbon emissions by 60 to 65 percent by 2030 compared with 2005. And in the economic development and social development planning to add carbon emission intensity as planning indicators to measure the effectiveness of the implementation of the plan. A clear responsibility for carbon emission reduction will contribute to the realization of carbon emission targets. Considering the differences of development status in different industries and the characteristics of future development planning, fair, fair and reasonable allocation of carbon emission reduction responsibility is the first clear issue. Based on the input-output analysis method, this paper calculates the carbon emissions from 41 sectors in China by combining the input-output table and the energy balance table. And combined with the input-output data of each industry value added to calculate the carbon emission intensity of each industry sector to provide the data basis for carbon emission rights and emission reduction allocation indicators. Secondly, select each industry historical carbon emissions. Carbon emission intensity, industry added value and resident consumption are used as evaluation indicators. The evaluation index system is established by using multi-attribute decision-making model of information entropy. And then get the emission rights and emission reduction allocation coefficient. The main reason for choosing these indicators is: the industry history carbon emissions are the main indicators to measure the responsibility of carbon emission reduction. Can fully reflect who pollutes who governs the basic principle; Industry added value can effectively reflect the ability of the industry to reduce emissions; The carbon emission intensity and residents' consumption can indirectly reflect the different carbon emission reduction potential of different industries. Thirdly, the discrete second-order difference model is used to predict the GDP (GDP) trend in 2030. Carbon emission intensity accounting under the emission intensity constraints emission rights and total emission reduction, and according to the allocation coefficient of each industry to allocate to the various industries. Finally. By using SPSS software, the emission rights and emission reductions are analyzed by cluster analysis, and carbon emission reduction marks are extended to various sectors, which are divided into compulsory emission reduction industries and key emission reduction industries. Four levels of emission reduction industry and voluntary emission reduction industry are encouraged, and policy recommendations are put forward for industries in different levels and emission rights and emission reduction allocation.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X321

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