基于3EDSS的京津冀雾霾形成机理及节能减排决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 00:27

本文关键词：基于3EDSS的京津冀雾霾形成机理及节能减排决策研究　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：工业化和城市化的发展消耗了大量的能源资源,也造成了严重的环境污染。尤其是京津冀地区,能源的消耗和机动车保有量的逐渐增加使得近几年的空气质量不断下降,雾霾天气的频发,让越来越多的研究者开始深入探究形成雾霾天气的主要原因和节能减排的策略。随着大气环境方面各项政策法规的提出,京津冀区域大气环境问题已成为各级政府关注的热点议题。本文基于3EDSS(能源-经济-环境可持续发展研究决策支持系统)平台,以北京市支持中央在京高校共建项目《京津冀资源经济生态环境可持续发展系统规划模型及决策支持研究》为依托,对京津冀区域雾霾形成机理及节能减排评价进行研究,主要完成以下内容：(1)研究京津冀区域的地理位置和经济社会发展状态,搜集京津冀地区与大气环境相关的数据,对京津冀区域的污染物浓度排放趋势和主要城市的AQI(空气污染指数)情况进行对比分析。(2)构建京津冀区域雾霾形成机理模型,通过搜集与雾霾形成机理相关的指标数据,研究各个指标与空气质量达标天数之间的相关性,进而研究与雾霾天气之间的关系,并对具有显著相关的指标建立多元线性回归方程。(3)构建区域雾霾天气预测模型,采用灰色预测方法,对京津冀地区的AQI变化情况和污染物排放浓度进行预测。(4)选取京津冀区域某一典型燃煤电厂,采用改进的节能减排目标下的层次分析法,对该电厂的节能减排现状进行综合评价,并提出改善环境,完善节能减排工作的决策建议。(5)将课题中涉及到的指标和模型与现有的3EDSS平台集成,并实现了京津冀区域雾霾形成机理及节能减排决策支持系统的主要功能,通过与3EDSS平台的资源共享,充分发挥平台的信息展示能力和决策支持功能,为辅助决策提供依据。
[Abstract]:The development of industrialization and urbanization has consumed a lot of energy resources and caused serious environmental pollution, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The consumption of energy and the increasing number of motor vehicles make the air quality decline in recent years and the frequent occurrence of haze weather. More and more researchers began to explore the main reasons for the formation of haze weather and the strategy of energy saving and emission reduction. With the atmospheric environment policies and regulations proposed. The atmospheric environment problem in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become a hot topic for governments at all levels. This paper is based on 3EDSS (Energy, Economic and Environmental Sustainable Development Research decision support system) platform. On the basis of Beijing's support for the Central University Co-construction Project of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Resources, economy, Ecology, Environment, Sustainable Development system Planning Model and decision support. This paper studies the formation mechanism of haze and the evaluation of energy saving and emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The main content is as follows: 1) to study the geographical location and economic and social development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Collect data related to atmospheric environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The emission trend of pollutants in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and AQI (air pollution index) in major cities were compared and analyzed. 2) the formation mechanism model of haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was constructed. By collecting the index data related to the formation mechanism of haze, the correlation between each index and the days of air quality reaching the standard was studied, and the relationship between each index and the weather of haze was studied. The regional haze weather forecasting model was established by establishing multiple linear regression equation. (3) the grey forecasting method was used to predict the regional haze weather. The change of AQI and pollutant emission concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area are predicted. 4) A typical coal-fired power plant in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is selected and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted under the improved energy saving and emission reduction target. Comprehensive evaluation of the status of energy conservation and emission reduction in the power plant, and proposed to improve the environment, improve energy saving and emission reduction decision-making recommendations. 5) the project involved in the indicators and models with the existing 3EDSS platform integration. And realized the formation mechanism of haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the main function of energy saving and emission reduction decision support system. Through sharing the resources with 3EDSS platform, we can give full play to the information display ability and decision support function of the platform. To provide the basis for the auxiliary decision.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X513;TP311.52

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