欧盟碳价影响因素研究及其对中国的启示

发布时间：2018-01-17 01:26

本文关键词：欧盟碳价影响因素研究及其对中国的启示　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

更多相关文章： EU ETS BP神经网络 碳价 影响因素

【摘要】：作为一项市场创新和政策创新,即将启动的中国全国性碳市场备受国内外关注。为保证其成功建立与平稳发展,相关经验借鉴已刻不容缓,但作为投石问路的7大试点碳市场发展层次不齐,可供参考的模式有限,因此研究全球第一大碳市场——欧盟碳排放交易体系(EU ETS)及其对中国的可参照性尤为迫切;而作为市场是否成熟的风向标,碳价规律性特征的挖掘尤为重要。前期国内外学者分别发现CER价格、原油价格、煤炭价格、天然气价格、欧洲工业指数、联合国气候变化大会、政府政策、极寒天气、暖冬天气、自然灾害、重大事件等多种因素都有可能引起EUA期货价格波动。本研究通过引入MIV-BP神经网络模型,对EU ETS二期和三期的EUA期货价格进行训练和测试,模拟了上述11个因素对EUA价格的影响,弥补了传统计量模型难以同时处理较多变量及不能整合定性与定量变量等缺点。通过对EU ETS二期1 149组和三期775组数据的挖掘,得出了各变量对EUA期货价格的影响程度。其中,二期运行阶段各变量影响程度从大到小排序为:自然灾害COPCER极寒天气Coal重大事件Brent政府政策Stock600Gas暖冬天气;三期运行阶段各变量影响程度从大到小排序为:COPStock600Coal自然灾害极寒天气重大事件政府政策BrentGasCER暖冬天气。最后,本研究对二、三期各变量对碳价影响程度的变化进行了解释,并对中国未来建立全国性碳市场提出了以下四点建议:(1)稳定碳市场参与主体预期;(2)完善核证减排抵消机制,保持政策稳定;(3)配额分配考虑区域差异;(4)建立配额应急机制。
[Abstract]:As a market innovation and policy innovation, China's national carbon market will be launched by domestic and foreign attention. In order to ensure its successful establishment and smooth development, it is urgent to learn from relevant experience. But as the seven pilot carbon market development levels are uneven, the model for reference is limited. Therefore, it is urgent to study the EU ETS, the largest carbon market in the world, and its reference to China. As a weather vane whether the market is mature or not, it is very important to excavate the regular characteristics of carbon price. Earlier scholars at home and abroad discovered the price of CER, crude oil price, coal price, natural gas price, European industrial index. United Nations climate change conference, government policy, extreme cold weather, warm winter weather, natural disasters. Significant events and other factors may cause volatility of EUA futures prices. This study introduces MIV-BP neural network model. The EUA futures price of the second and third phases of EU ETS is trained and tested, and the influence of the above 11 factors on the EUA price is simulated. It makes up for the shortcomings of traditional metrological model, such as difficult to deal with many variables at the same time and unable to integrate qualitative and quantitative variables, etc. By mining the data of 1 149 groups and 775 groups of EU ETS II and 3 phases respectively. The influence of each variable on the EUA futures price is obtained. The order of the influence degree of the variables in the second phase of operation is as follows: natural disaster COPCER extreme cold weather Coal important event Brent government policy Stock600Gas warm winter weather; The order of the influence degree of each variable in the third phase is as follows:. The COPStock600Coal natural disaster extreme cold weather important event government policy BrentGasCER warm winter weather. Finally. This study explains the influence of the second and third period variables on carbon price, and puts forward the following four suggestions to establish a national carbon market in China: 1) to stabilize the main body of carbon market participation; (2) perfecting the mechanism of CEE offsetting and maintaining policy stability; (3) the allocation of quotas takes into account regional differences; Fourth, establish the quota emergency mechanism.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学国际商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于智能技术的国际碳市场价格驱动因素研究”(批准号:71101133) 国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国碳市场成熟度及环境监管政策研究”(批准号:14AZD051) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划“碳金融创新——国际二氧化碳排放权市场价格形成机制研究”(批准号:NCET-11-0725) 陕西师范大学研究生培养创新基金项目“陕西省参与建设全国碳市场的问题研究”(批准号:2016CSY028)
【分类号】：F832.5;X196
【正文快照】： 2017年中国将全面启动全国碳市场,首期纳入11个行业的7 000多家大型企业,覆盖的排放交易量约为30—40亿t,现货交易额有望达到80亿元/年,纳入期货交易的全国碳市场规模或达4 000亿元。届时,全国碳市场将一举超越欧盟碳排放交易体系(EU ETS)成为全球第一大碳市场。目前,中国7个

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