北京市空气质量与机动车尾气排放量关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 02:22

本文关键词：北京市空气质量与机动车尾气排放量关系研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以研究北京市空气质量与机动车尾气排放量的关系为目标,运用机动车尾气排放量测算模型估计北京市机动车碳氢化合物、一氧化碳、氮氧化物、PM_(10)、二氧化硫排放量,使用灰色关联度理论确定显著影响北京市空气质量的因素,继而建立起北京市空气质量与机动车尾气排放量的关系模型,得出相应的结论。首先对近几年北京市的主要污染物变化规律进行分析,发现北京市的空气质量呈现出一定的季节性和区域性,污染物浓度整体上出现6月至9月浓度低,而11月至1月浓度高的情况。经过探讨发现影响北京市空气质量的因素有很多,主要有地理、气象、人类活动,其中人类活动因素是造成空气质量恶化的主要原因。其次对北京市机动车尾气排放量分车型进行测量。结果发现,私人汽车在四种车型中尾气排放所占比例最大,高达95%以上,而重型载货汽车的分担率在2009年至2010年、2014年至2015年都有所下降,而公共汽车的污染物排放分担率一直保持一直不变,约为1.5%。最后探讨了北京市空气质量与机动车尾气排放量的关系。本文使用绝对灰色关联度、广义灰色关联度判断出影响北京市空气质量的显著性因素,发现国内生产总值、林木绿化率、燃煤量、机动车保有量、机动车主要污染物排放量能起到显著影响北京市空气质量的效果。鉴于机动车保有量与机动车尾气排放量存在直接的线性关系,因此使用除机动车保有量因素以外的显著性因素作为自变量建立多元回归模型,从模型中看出国内生产总值系数都为负数,说明国内生产总值的增加,并没有增加北京市污染物的排放量,反而减少了北京市污染物的排放量。同时机动车的污染物排放能够解释北京市一氧化碳排放量的72.82%,其他因素例如燃煤等占了 27.18%,表明它是北京市一氧化碳的主要来源。本文讨论的机动车保有量仅限在北京市地区登记的机动车车辆,并不包括外地进京车辆,说明就目前的限制外地进京车辆政策的力度而言,北京市一氧化碳的排放量高的原因就在于本地机动车尾气排放,而不是外地车排放。另外燃煤对北京市氮氧化物的影响较大,燃煤量能够解释其变化的40.5%。
[Abstract]:In order to study the relationship between air quality and vehicle exhaust emissions in Beijing, this paper estimates motor vehicle hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by using the motor vehicle exhaust emission measurement model. The grey correlation degree theory is used to determine the factors that significantly affect the air quality in Beijing, and the model of the relationship between the air quality of Beijing and the exhaust emissions of motor vehicles is established. First of all, the changes of main pollutants in Beijing are analyzed, and it is found that the air quality of Beijing is seasonal and regional. The concentration of pollutants is low from June to September and high from November to November. It is found that there are many factors affecting air quality in Beijing, including geography, meteorology and human activities. Human activity is the main cause of the deterioration of air quality. Secondly, the emission of motor vehicles in Beijing is measured. Private vehicles account for the largest share of emissions of more than 95% among the four models, while the share of heavy-duty vehicles declined from 2009 to 2010 and 2014 to 2014. But the pollutant emission sharing rate of the bus has been kept constant, about 1.5. Finally, the relationship between the air quality and the exhaust emission of motor vehicles in Beijing is discussed. The absolute grey correlation degree is used in this paper. The generalized grey correlation degree judges the significant factors that affect the air quality in Beijing, and finds out the gross domestic product (GDP), the green rate of trees, the amount of coal burning and the quantity of motor vehicles. The emission of major pollutants from motor vehicles can significantly affect the air quality in Beijing, since there is a direct linear relationship between vehicle ownership and vehicle exhaust emissions. Therefore, using significant factors other than motor vehicle ownership factors as independent variables to establish a multivariate regression model, from the model we can see that the GDP coefficient is negative, indicating the increase of GDP. Instead of increasing the amount of pollutants emitted in Beijing, the emissions from motor vehicles can account for 72.82% of Beijing's emissions of carbon monoxide. Other factors, such as coal burning, account for 27.18, indicating that it is the main source of carbon monoxide in Beijing. Do not include foreign vehicles to Beijing, indicating that the current restrictions on the intensity of foreign vehicles entering Beijing, the high emissions of carbon monoxide in Beijing is due to local motor vehicle emissions. In addition, coal combustion has a greater impact on nitrogen oxides in Beijing, and coal combustion can explain 40.5 percent of the change.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X734.2;X51

【参考文献】